solovaloreaggiunto
Forumer storico
Hanno prezzato il btp italia venerdi scorso quando lo spread era a 351. Fortunatamente oggi è a 312 e chissa settimana prox.. Insomma è un rischio calcolato comprarne una carrettata...
Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 2
- Creatore Discussione caligola2005
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
drbs315
Forumer storico
Onestamente mi stupisco ogni giorno di quello che riesco a portare a casa già cosi..potrei usare la leva(Binck me lo dice tutti i giorni) ma non voglio impegnare soldi non miei..
Sarò provinciale come dice Zorba
Leva? Cuss'è?
porchetto
la casa non fallisce
Chiuso a 68,7. Mi scappa da ridere...
(holding strong).
Questa ha gli stessi diritti della Cat B. Anzi è meglio, prechè è privilegiata rispetto alla seconda e cumula 2 dvd.
Vi segnalo che la a relazione PKF allegata alla relazione del rappresentante comune degli azionisti di risparmio ha chiaramente detto che "la delibera dell'assemblea straordinaria di Fondiaria-SAI del 19 marzo 2012 prevede ... a parita' di rendimento del 5% delle azioni ordinarie, un rendimento in termini di dividendo del 10,2% sia per le Azioni di Risparmio di Categoria A che per le Azioni di Risparmio di Categoria B rispetto alla parita' contabile".
Sulla base di questa relazione, societa' e rappresentante comune hanno concluso che - a seguito dell'aumento di capitale - non ci sarebbe stato alcun danno per gli azionisti di risparmio A e che quindi non era necessario convocare l'assemblea straordinaria della categoria.
leggevo nel web un tale Varoon che ha analizzato molto bene la questione, più che il mispricing con la categoria B secondo me è con le ordinarie mi sembra di aver capito che oltre ai due dvd accumulati paghi max (6,5; 100*dvd(ord) + 5,2) per pagare l'utile deve essere di almeno 24 milioni (ha fatto un adc monstre e dovrà fare dismissioni solo con il rendimento dei soldi dell'aumento di capitale su un conto deposito non dovrebbe avere problemi a fare un minuscolo utile.
Poi in prospettiva immagino che la unipol sia interessata a raccogliere dvd da fondiaria quindi se immaginiamo che vorranno un dvd del 2% sul valore nominale delle azioni ovvero 4 centesimi il rendimento di questa azione può essere esplosivo.
dovrebbe superare abbondantemente i 100 come valore reale
sbaglio qualcosa mi sa che è meglio che chieda a questo sig. Varoon peccato che non scrive qui
drbs315
Forumer storico
***MPS: MOODY'S, RATING GIU' DI DUE NOTCH E LO PORTA A LIVELLO JUNK
L'outlok e' 'negativo'
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Milano, 18 ott - Moody's ha
tagliato di due 'gradini', a 'Ba2' da 'Baa3', il rating del
Monte dei Paschi di Siena: una decisione che porta la
valutazione sul debito a lungo termine dell'istituto toscano
nella categoria speculativa. L'agenzia ritiene che,
nonostante l'iniezione di capitale da 1,5 miliardi da parte
del Governo, ci siano probabilita' reali che la banca abbia
bisogno di ulteriore sostegno dall'esterno nell'arco
dell'orizzonte del rating. Anche la nota di debito a breve
termine e' stata portata nella categoria speculativa. Il
rating intrinseco della capacita' finanziaria, che non tiene
in considerazione l'aiuto che potrebbe arrivare dalle casse
pubbliche italiane, e' scivolato a 'E', ovvero nella parte
inferiore della scala di Moody's. l'outlook rimane
'negativo'. Come gli stress test dell'European Banking
Authority (Eba) e di Banca d'Italia hanno mostrato, "Mps -
afferma Moody's - non e' stata in grado di aumentare la
propria base di capitale ai livelli richiesti", secondo cui
una banca deve avere almeno un rapporto 'core Tier 1' del
9%. L'agenzia sottolinea inolter che la qualita' degli "asset
di Mps e' debole e continuera' a peggiorare date le deboli
prospettive di crescita dell'Italia per la parte restante
del 2012 e per il 2013".
Man-
(RADIOCOR) 18-10-12 08:00:46 (0030)news 3 NNNN
L'outlok e' 'negativo'
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Milano, 18 ott - Moody's ha
tagliato di due 'gradini', a 'Ba2' da 'Baa3', il rating del
Monte dei Paschi di Siena: una decisione che porta la
valutazione sul debito a lungo termine dell'istituto toscano
nella categoria speculativa. L'agenzia ritiene che,
nonostante l'iniezione di capitale da 1,5 miliardi da parte
del Governo, ci siano probabilita' reali che la banca abbia
bisogno di ulteriore sostegno dall'esterno nell'arco
dell'orizzonte del rating. Anche la nota di debito a breve
termine e' stata portata nella categoria speculativa. Il
rating intrinseco della capacita' finanziaria, che non tiene
in considerazione l'aiuto che potrebbe arrivare dalle casse
pubbliche italiane, e' scivolato a 'E', ovvero nella parte
inferiore della scala di Moody's. l'outlook rimane
'negativo'. Come gli stress test dell'European Banking
Authority (Eba) e di Banca d'Italia hanno mostrato, "Mps -
afferma Moody's - non e' stata in grado di aumentare la
propria base di capitale ai livelli richiesti", secondo cui
una banca deve avere almeno un rapporto 'core Tier 1' del
9%. L'agenzia sottolinea inolter che la qualita' degli "asset
di Mps e' debole e continuera' a peggiorare date le deboli
prospettive di crescita dell'Italia per la parte restante
del 2012 e per il 2013".
Man-
(RADIOCOR) 18-10-12 08:00:46 (0030)news 3 NNNN
ferdo
Utente Senior
nik.sala
Money Never Sleeps
frankiemachine
Mr. Tentenna
angy2008
Forumer storico
ma se ricordo bene l'iniezione statale in caso di non rimborso sarà convertita in azioni, quindi migliorerebbe il capitale dell'istituto che tra l'altro stà beneficiando del corposo rialzo dei TDS lunghi che finora avevano pesato sui bilanci dell'istituo
reef
...
wartburg_12
forumer storico
Groupama ....
Riporto qui quello che si dice da 'super pognon' .... (è l'opinione di Bank of America, non ricordo se qualcuno l'ha già riportata prima ...
)
La parte che riguarda FR464 è l'ultima.
qui è l'original :
Les chroniques de Super Pognon: Des obligations Groupama massacrées ?
Marc14 octobre 2012 22:31
Pour info, voici l'opinion de Bank Of America Merry Lynch sur les subordonnées Tiers 2 de Groupama.
Doc émis le 5 Oct 12, auteur Jeroen Julius.
Ce qui est intéressant c'est l'analyse de la fair value.
Je partage l'analyse. Pour la recommandation, cela dépend de la stratégie de chacun.
---------
T2 bonds - we remain UW-30%
UW-30% despite valuation support
Following the announcement this morning by CCAMA that it will skip the upcoming
coupon on its €6.298 17s Tier 1 bond due 22 October (more here), we have taken a
closer look at the valuation support for the other two CCAMA subordinated bonds
that we cover, namely the €4.375 15s and the €7.875 2039-19s. The former has
optional coupon deferral language, but this is cumulative (unlike the €6.298 17s).
The latter has the same language but will keep paying, we understand. Despite
valuation support for both bonds, we remain UW-30% in each, due to: (1) poor
CCAMA earnings and capital visibility; (2) Fitch Ratings downgrading CCAMA to
non-investment grade; and (3) possible reputational damage.
Tier 1 coupon skip - why did CCAMA do it?
Since CCAMA had not paid dividends to its regional mutual shareholders this year
(following the €1.76bn loss in FY11), it did not want to give favourable treatment
to the holders of its €6.298 17s junior subordinated bonds. (Non-payment of
dividends was a pre-condition for triggering the optional coupon deferral language
of the T1 bond). CCAMA clearly differentiates between its T1 bonds (which it
considers to be part of its equity) and its T2 bonds, as it confirmed that the next
coupon of the €7.875s T2 bond (due 27 October) will actually be paid.
What about the reputational repercussions?
CCAMA did not believe that the reputational risks of a coupon skip on its T1 bond
would be serious – ‘funding markets are already closed to us anyway and we do
not need to raise funding in the near term’. We understand that this was a
management decision and that the regulator did not get involved in it. In our view,
the company may have under-estimated the repercussions for its market
reputation - it could take a while to repair it, we think. Even if it does not need to
raise subordinated debt in the near term, it will probably need to do so eventually.
Today’s coupon-skip decision will likely make a return to the markets more
challenging.
Répondre
Marc14 octobre 2012 22:32
Suite :
Fitch downgrades CCAMA sub bonds and IDR
This afternoon, Fitch Ratings downgraded the CCAMA 7.875s, the 4.375s and the
6.298s sub bonds from ‘BB’ to ‘B+’, ‘B-’ and ‘CCC’, respectively. They remain on
negative watch, which reflects Fitch’s view of ‘the risk of further coupon deferral’.
Simultaneously, the agency has ‘downgraded Groupama S.A.'s and two of its
core insurance subsidiaries, Groupama GAN Vie and GAN Assurances' Insurer
Financial Strength (IFS) ratings to 'BB+' from 'BBB'’ with a Negative outlook. The
downgrade of Groupama's IFS ratings reflects Fitch concerns that ‘the decision
not to pay the coupon on its hybrid debt could negatively impact the company's
reputation and that the group may face further challenges to its financial condition
going forward’. Recall that in June S&P already downgraded CCAMA to ‘BB’.
€4.375 15s – fair value
This bond has cumulative coupon deferral language. CCAMA paid the most
recent coupon on the 4.375s last July. In light of today’s coupon skip on the T1
bond, however, there’s considerable uncertainty with regards to the next few
coupons of the 4.375s, we think. We therefore assume coupon deferrals until (but
excluding) 2015. CCAMA could have restored its solvency ratio to 150% by that
time, in our view, although visibility is poor. We note that the FY11 loss was
primarily due to the impairment charges it took on its Greek government bond
holdings. This should be a non-recurring feature. The recent rally in risk assets
will also have helped CCAMA’s solvency position somewhat. The underlying
profitability of its Life & Health business appears decent, although its Property &
Casualty segment has a combined ratio of around 104%.
Répondre
Marc14 octobre 2012 22:33
et fin :
We assume that the reaching of a 150% solvency ratio in 2015 would trigger the
payment of the accumulated coupons (2013 and 2014) in 2015 (along with the
2015 coupon). Under this scenario, and when valued to perpetuity, we see the
fair value of this bond at around €43. When valued to the first call date in 2015,
we see fair value at around €86. When valued at ‘call + 5’, we see fair value at
around €66, so about 17 points above today’s close. (Recall that CCAMA did not
call a bond in 2009, but then did call it in the subsequent year.) This is our base
case. So there does appear to be considerable valuation support for this bond
(even assuming two more years of coupon deferrals, the fair value would still be
€63). We are nevertheless comfortable with our Underweight-30% rating, as (1)
the visibility of the group’s earnings and capital strategy is poor; (2) the company
is now rated non-investment grade by both S&P and Fitch; and (3) investor
sentiment towards the name has taken another hit today.
Cumulative coupons – when will they be paid?
When valuing the 4.375s under a coupon deferral scenario, we need to make an
assumption regarding (1) the number of coupon deferrals; and (2) the timing of
the payment of the deferred coupons. The clause describing this timing issue is
the same for both bonds, namely Condition 3(h)(2).
Although ‘Arrears of Interest may, at the option of the Issuer, be paid in whole or
in part […] on any Optional Interest Payment Date’, all arrears of interest ‘shall
become due in full on whichever is the earlier of: (a) the next Interest Payment
Date which is a Compulsory Interest Payment Date; or (b) the date on which the
Notes are due to be redeemed (i) pursuant to any optional or mandatory
redemption of the Notes in accordance with Condition 5 or (ii) otherwise by
operation of law.’
The Compulsory Interest Payment Date clause basically gets triggered when the
solvency ratio exceeds 150% OR when the company (i) has declared/paid a
dividend; or (ii) redeemed / bought back any of its share capital or senior/junior
sub debt; or (iii) a ‘relevant affiliated entity’ (the regional mutuals, Groupama
Holding and the group) has made relevant payments. Condition 5 could be
activated by a capital disqualification event, a tax event or in liquidation.
As CCAMA’s Solvency I ratio was 113% at end-2Q12 (excluding recent
gains/losses on disposals), the Compulsory Interest Payment clause seems
unlikely to be triggered by a restored solvency ratio in the very near term. A
dividend payment to/by its regional mutual shareholders could well be a more
likely trigger, but it is hard to estimate the timing of this. Our two-year coupon
deferral scenario described above is a more conservative approach, we think.
€7.875 2039-19s – no coupon deferrals
We understand that the next coupon of the €7.875s (due 27 October) will actually
be paid, even though it has optional coupon deferral language, the 2013 coupon
of the 4.375s seems uncertain and despite the coupon skip on the 6.298s this
morning. Within its Tier 2 capital layer, therefore, the company does make a clear
distinction between its dated bonds and its undated bonds. In our view, this is in
line with the approach that other insurers (and probably regulators) take to their
sub bonds (not that any of the other insurers under our coverage are currently
skipping coupons). Therefore, we no longer expect that CCAMA will defer
coupons on this bond, even though it does contain optional coupon deferral
language. Assuming this bond is called in 2019, it would yield 13.8%. Assuming it
remains outstanding until maturity, it would yield 11.2%. Under both scenarios,
therefore, this bond appears to be attractively valued. As with the 4.375s,
however, we are comfortable with our Underweight-30% recommendation for the
reasons highlighted above (visibility, ratings downgrade to non-investment grade
and investor sentiment).
Riporto qui quello che si dice da 'super pognon' .... (è l'opinione di Bank of America, non ricordo se qualcuno l'ha già riportata prima ...
)La parte che riguarda FR464 è l'ultima.
qui è l'original :
Les chroniques de Super Pognon: Des obligations Groupama massacrées ?
Marc14 octobre 2012 22:31
Pour info, voici l'opinion de Bank Of America Merry Lynch sur les subordonnées Tiers 2 de Groupama.
Doc émis le 5 Oct 12, auteur Jeroen Julius.
Ce qui est intéressant c'est l'analyse de la fair value.
Je partage l'analyse. Pour la recommandation, cela dépend de la stratégie de chacun.
---------
T2 bonds - we remain UW-30%
UW-30% despite valuation support
Following the announcement this morning by CCAMA that it will skip the upcoming
coupon on its €6.298 17s Tier 1 bond due 22 October (more here), we have taken a
closer look at the valuation support for the other two CCAMA subordinated bonds
that we cover, namely the €4.375 15s and the €7.875 2039-19s. The former has
optional coupon deferral language, but this is cumulative (unlike the €6.298 17s).
The latter has the same language but will keep paying, we understand. Despite
valuation support for both bonds, we remain UW-30% in each, due to: (1) poor
CCAMA earnings and capital visibility; (2) Fitch Ratings downgrading CCAMA to
non-investment grade; and (3) possible reputational damage.
Tier 1 coupon skip - why did CCAMA do it?
Since CCAMA had not paid dividends to its regional mutual shareholders this year
(following the €1.76bn loss in FY11), it did not want to give favourable treatment
to the holders of its €6.298 17s junior subordinated bonds. (Non-payment of
dividends was a pre-condition for triggering the optional coupon deferral language
of the T1 bond). CCAMA clearly differentiates between its T1 bonds (which it
considers to be part of its equity) and its T2 bonds, as it confirmed that the next
coupon of the €7.875s T2 bond (due 27 October) will actually be paid.
What about the reputational repercussions?
CCAMA did not believe that the reputational risks of a coupon skip on its T1 bond
would be serious – ‘funding markets are already closed to us anyway and we do
not need to raise funding in the near term’. We understand that this was a
management decision and that the regulator did not get involved in it. In our view,
the company may have under-estimated the repercussions for its market
reputation - it could take a while to repair it, we think. Even if it does not need to
raise subordinated debt in the near term, it will probably need to do so eventually.
Today’s coupon-skip decision will likely make a return to the markets more
challenging.
Répondre
Marc14 octobre 2012 22:32
Suite :
Fitch downgrades CCAMA sub bonds and IDR
This afternoon, Fitch Ratings downgraded the CCAMA 7.875s, the 4.375s and the
6.298s sub bonds from ‘BB’ to ‘B+’, ‘B-’ and ‘CCC’, respectively. They remain on
negative watch, which reflects Fitch’s view of ‘the risk of further coupon deferral’.
Simultaneously, the agency has ‘downgraded Groupama S.A.'s and two of its
core insurance subsidiaries, Groupama GAN Vie and GAN Assurances' Insurer
Financial Strength (IFS) ratings to 'BB+' from 'BBB'’ with a Negative outlook. The
downgrade of Groupama's IFS ratings reflects Fitch concerns that ‘the decision
not to pay the coupon on its hybrid debt could negatively impact the company's
reputation and that the group may face further challenges to its financial condition
going forward’. Recall that in June S&P already downgraded CCAMA to ‘BB’.
€4.375 15s – fair value
This bond has cumulative coupon deferral language. CCAMA paid the most
recent coupon on the 4.375s last July. In light of today’s coupon skip on the T1
bond, however, there’s considerable uncertainty with regards to the next few
coupons of the 4.375s, we think. We therefore assume coupon deferrals until (but
excluding) 2015. CCAMA could have restored its solvency ratio to 150% by that
time, in our view, although visibility is poor. We note that the FY11 loss was
primarily due to the impairment charges it took on its Greek government bond
holdings. This should be a non-recurring feature. The recent rally in risk assets
will also have helped CCAMA’s solvency position somewhat. The underlying
profitability of its Life & Health business appears decent, although its Property &
Casualty segment has a combined ratio of around 104%.
Répondre
Marc14 octobre 2012 22:33
et fin :
We assume that the reaching of a 150% solvency ratio in 2015 would trigger the
payment of the accumulated coupons (2013 and 2014) in 2015 (along with the
2015 coupon). Under this scenario, and when valued to perpetuity, we see the
fair value of this bond at around €43. When valued to the first call date in 2015,
we see fair value at around €86. When valued at ‘call + 5’, we see fair value at
around €66, so about 17 points above today’s close. (Recall that CCAMA did not
call a bond in 2009, but then did call it in the subsequent year.) This is our base
case. So there does appear to be considerable valuation support for this bond
(even assuming two more years of coupon deferrals, the fair value would still be
€63). We are nevertheless comfortable with our Underweight-30% rating, as (1)
the visibility of the group’s earnings and capital strategy is poor; (2) the company
is now rated non-investment grade by both S&P and Fitch; and (3) investor
sentiment towards the name has taken another hit today.
Cumulative coupons – when will they be paid?
When valuing the 4.375s under a coupon deferral scenario, we need to make an
assumption regarding (1) the number of coupon deferrals; and (2) the timing of
the payment of the deferred coupons. The clause describing this timing issue is
the same for both bonds, namely Condition 3(h)(2).
Although ‘Arrears of Interest may, at the option of the Issuer, be paid in whole or
in part […] on any Optional Interest Payment Date’, all arrears of interest ‘shall
become due in full on whichever is the earlier of: (a) the next Interest Payment
Date which is a Compulsory Interest Payment Date; or (b) the date on which the
Notes are due to be redeemed (i) pursuant to any optional or mandatory
redemption of the Notes in accordance with Condition 5 or (ii) otherwise by
operation of law.’
The Compulsory Interest Payment Date clause basically gets triggered when the
solvency ratio exceeds 150% OR when the company (i) has declared/paid a
dividend; or (ii) redeemed / bought back any of its share capital or senior/junior
sub debt; or (iii) a ‘relevant affiliated entity’ (the regional mutuals, Groupama
Holding and the group) has made relevant payments. Condition 5 could be
activated by a capital disqualification event, a tax event or in liquidation.
As CCAMA’s Solvency I ratio was 113% at end-2Q12 (excluding recent
gains/losses on disposals), the Compulsory Interest Payment clause seems
unlikely to be triggered by a restored solvency ratio in the very near term. A
dividend payment to/by its regional mutual shareholders could well be a more
likely trigger, but it is hard to estimate the timing of this. Our two-year coupon
deferral scenario described above is a more conservative approach, we think.
€7.875 2039-19s – no coupon deferrals
We understand that the next coupon of the €7.875s (due 27 October) will actually
be paid, even though it has optional coupon deferral language, the 2013 coupon
of the 4.375s seems uncertain and despite the coupon skip on the 6.298s this
morning. Within its Tier 2 capital layer, therefore, the company does make a clear
distinction between its dated bonds and its undated bonds. In our view, this is in
line with the approach that other insurers (and probably regulators) take to their
sub bonds (not that any of the other insurers under our coverage are currently
skipping coupons). Therefore, we no longer expect that CCAMA will defer
coupons on this bond, even though it does contain optional coupon deferral
language. Assuming this bond is called in 2019, it would yield 13.8%. Assuming it
remains outstanding until maturity, it would yield 11.2%. Under both scenarios,
therefore, this bond appears to be attractively valued. As with the 4.375s,
however, we are comfortable with our Underweight-30% recommendation for the
reasons highlighted above (visibility, ratings downgrade to non-investment grade
and investor sentiment).
Ultima modifica:
- Stato