Carige’s Postponed Capital Increase Is Credit Negative
Last Monday, Banca Carige S.p.A. (B2 review for downgrade, E+/b3 review for downgrade)13 announced
that it was postponing obtaining the approval of a new business plan that was to include a substantial
capital increase. The postponement of the capital increase is credit negative for Carige’s bondholders.
The postponement stems from uncertainties related to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) comprehensive
assessment of the most systemically important banks in the euro area beginning in 2014. Many details of
the assessment are still unknown, creating significant uncertainty for many European banks about the
sufficiency of their capital.
Following a request by the Bank of Italy, Carige was planning to strengthen its capital by €800 million by
the first quarter of 2014 mainly via asset disposals, with any remainder coming from a capital increase.
However, most of Carige’s asset disposal efforts failed, with the largest asset, a life insurance company, not
receiving sufficient market interest owing to its large holding of Italian government bonds. This failure has
left Carige needing to rely significantly on a capital injection to both meet its target and respond to the
outcome of the ECB’s comprehensive assessment.
Carige planned to announce the details of its capital increase by mid-November, once the outcome of its
asset disposal was more definitive. Carige’s management announced that the Bank of Italy has pushed back
the original deadline to raise capital to take into account the additional challenges posed by the ECB, but it
is unclear whether the regulator has finalised a new timetable for Carige’s capital strengthening.
Using Basel II core Tier 1 ratio (CT1) as a proxy, Carige’s 7.7% pro forma capital as of September 2013 is
just €70 million below the 8% minimum common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio that the ECB prescribes.
However, this does not take into account the stress test that Carige will undergo, whose results will likely be
compared against a lower ratio, and the difference in the calculation between the two ratios.
Carige’s larger-than-anticipated capital increase will launch in a challenging operating environment, where
appetite for Italian assets may be limited. Moreover, executing the capital increase a few months later than
originally planned will result in Carige having to compete with many euro area banks that are also looking
to raise capital to comply with the ECB’s comprehensive assessment. A number of Italian banks are
approaching the comprehensive assessment with weak capitalisation, and Carige is among the weakest (see
exhibit below).