Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3

BBVA non-steps have attractive running yield past the extension event

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BBVA yesterday indicated that it will not call its two non-step Tier 1 bonds – BBVASM 9.1% in GBP and the 8.5% in EUR at the upcoming first call date in October.
The bank (IR) clarified that the decision was taken on economic grounds, reflecting not only the bank’s relatively high refinancing costs with new AT1 securities (these trade not far from the back-end spread of the legacy non-steps), but also the phase-in rules of CRD4/CRR. Under the framework goodwill deduction gets phased in such that this year 20% gets deducted from Common Equity and 80% from (additional) Tier 1. BBVA doesn’t currently have enough Tier 1 instruments to fully absorb this deduction and therefore calling the non-steps would lead to a goodwill deduction from CET1 which the bank wants to avoid.
BBVA will re-evaluate the situation at every quarterly call date going forward, so the probability that the instruments will get called in the not very distant future remains quite high. Due to the call risk the bonds will struggle to trade materially above par, but at their current trading levels around 101.25 – 101.75 they offer an attractive current yield for investors who aren’t too bothered if the call is in six, 12 or 18 months from now.

Grazie della news.

Preso la XS0457228137 a 101,7.

Dopo il 21.10 la cedola passa a Eur 3 mesi +5,74%.

Mi prendo un mese al 8,5% e la speranza che rimanga sul mercato il più possibile.
 
Rott, ora ti mando anche questo... so che ti piace..
As we anticipated in our Credit Agricole and BNP notes, the two French banks chose to not call three of their non-step Tier 1s last week. We remain buyers of Agricole’s $7% and €6% Tier 1s for the high carry they offer to the expected call dates of 2017 and 2021. For a shorter-term play, we like RBS’ $5.512% and $L+80bp steps, which should be called by year-end.
Last Thursday,Agricole did not announce the redemption of its $7.375% non-step Tier 1 before the end of the call window. Likewise, BNP did the same last Wednesday, leaving its $6.25% and €4.875% uncalled.We understand that both banks are maximising grandfathering buckets, redeeming only the Tier 1s which have the highest costs (highest coupons) and which ‘fit’ the amount of excess Tier 1 capital they have, as their grandfathering allowance gets amortised. By doing our own grandfathering analysis, we determined in the two notes linked above the expected call dates for BNP and Agricole’s non-steps and are encouraged by the non-calls we saw last week.
We remain buyers of Agricole $7% and €6% Tier 1s, with them both having their last call notice day on September 30 (they’ve been callable quarterly since 2009). Among our top picks at the moment, these bonds offer a generous ZtC of 514bp and 503bp to our expected call dates in 2017 and 2021 and naturally as legacy Tier 1 carry none of the structural problems of new AT1. Note that Agricole’s €6.5% AT1 – with its optional coupons and write-down at 7% group CET1 trigger – trades at a ztc in 2021 of 500bp, so the legacy €6% Tier 1 is actually better value – if we are right about the 2021 call date. We believe that Agricole will call its expensive $1.35 billion 9.75% fixed-fixed non-step next, in December.
For the investor in search of shorter-term trades, we like RBS’ $L+80bp and $5.512% step-up Tier 1s, which both missed their first calls on September 30. In light of RBS’ call behaviour, which we described in our last Tier 1 note, we believe that these two bonds will get called by December 30, giving a YtC of 3.9% and 2.2%, respectively. They will have lost all capital value by then and RBS should be free to call them without having to request permission from the regulator


cmq loro stimano call date al 2017 e al 2021.. ma è tutto da vedere..

se ad es. tra un anno i bond at1 fossero meno onerosi da emettere (ed è possibilissimo..) o gli spread fossero migliorati nel credito, ecco che la call potrebbe avvenire comunque molto prima per ricollocare sul mercato bond at1 meno onerosi..

ora siamo in una situazione limite invece..

ciao
Andrea
 

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