Under a tail-event worst-case scenario, which could entitled the full write-down of the Russia & Ukraine business, could result in a 310bps hit on RBI CET1 Capital ratios. Under such scenario, we consider that RZB may have to deconsolidate RBI and the associated impact could leave this entity below the minimum regulatory requirements. RFLB would face a similar outcome in the event that pending losses in its RZB stake have to be recognized. We think that potential mitigating actions such as a rights issue and disinvestment have high execution risk and/or unlikely to be of a significant scale. As such, we maintain our UW recommendation on RBI and recommend selling RBI high-cash price Tier 2 instruments (RBIAV 6.625% €21 at a cash price of 93.5 and RBIAV 5.875% €23 at a cash price of 96.85). Given the risk of contagion, we also recommend selling RFLB 5.875% €23, trading at a cash price of 92.25, and RZB 5.169% €P, trading at a cash price of 59.00.