Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3
- Creatore Discussione Joe Silver
- Data di Inizio
Magician
Forumer attivo
Raiffeisen Bank International BoA-ML
Moving to Marketweight in absence of bad news RBI bonds have rallied since the beginning of October and have now reached YTD highs.
The longer-dated T2 bonds yield around 6% and the €6.625% 21s just under 5%.
Similar to previous quarters, Q3 numbers were characterized by a relatively resilient result in Russia, modest incremental progress in restructuring and absence of bad news with respect to the bank’s key areas of risk, such as the non-core Asian book.
We think this may continue to be the case in the near term, which would be supportive for the bonds.
In particular, any developments in Poland – both positive (sale of the unit) and negative (potential CHF loan conversion) – may be delayed owing to the change of government after the recent elections.
Recognising the downside risks, but not seeing a near-term catalyst, we move to Marketweight from Underweight across RBI’s capital structure.
Capital: 10.8% at end-Q3
RBI’s solvency position has improved this year with the CET1 ratio now at 10.8%, up 76bp vs. end-2014. Q3 impairments were exceptionally low and the bank is likely to be loss-making in Q4 on the back of a rise in loan losses.
In particular, we expect some extra reserving for the Asian portfolio to facilitate its run-down.
However, RBI could still end the year with a broadly unchanged or only marginally lower capital ratio, as some offset would come from the Q3 profit (unaudited and hence not yet included in capital) and the gain on the sale of the Russian pension fund (~20bp).
This would still be well below the bank’s end-2017 target of 12%, but it would demonstrate that some progress has been achieved this year.
We think this perhaps would be enough to satisfy the regulators – observing recent developments at e.g. HSH Nordbank, Monte dei Paschi and Novo Banco, we sense a somewhat more lenient regulatory backdrop in Europe for stressed banks than we’d previously feared.
Poland now in focus
RBI’s restructuring has so far concentrated on the more marginal parts of the plan (Zuno, Slovenia, US). With these likely out of the way by year-end, the bank will shift its focus in 2016 to the sale of its Polish unit, which houses €8.5bn of RWAs, including ~€1bn RWAs from CHF-denominated loans.
RBI has been clear that it intends to carve out the €3bn CHF portfolio and restart the sale process for the remaining operations.
This will take time, we think, as regulatory approvals may be delayed given the change of government. In turn, any transaction could perhaps only be announced later in 2016 and close in 2017.
The contingent liability from the CHF book remains difficult to quantify at this stage as both the new president and government have yet to formulate their proposals.
Recent headlines suggest, however, a more bank-friendly solution than
the one voiced during the election campaign.
Downside risks remain
As RBI is still undergoing a deep restructuring, it remains vulnerable, especially given its above-average risk profile and the breadth of its exposures in CEE.
In particular, a more punitive backdrop for Polish banks as a result of the bank tax and CHF loan conversion law could reduce the appetite for RBI’s Polish assets and jeopardise the sale process.
We also note that the regulatory pressure on capital levels for European banks continues and could require RBI to eventually reach a CET1 ratio above the targeted 12%.
Group reorganization – an ongoing debate
Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that RBI is considering a merger with its parent and majority owner – RZB – and Raiffeisenlandesbank Niederoesterreich-Wien AG, RZB’s biggest shareholder. RBI has frequently downplayed such a scenario in the past, although the debate about the reorganization of the broader Raiffeisen Group, with its complex ownership structure, has been going on for quite some time now.
Whether any simplification of the group structure would ultimately be positive for capital would depend on its exact terms. It could nonetheless increase Raiffeisen Group’s financial flexibility, in our view, allowing it to more easily access the equity markets, for instance.
Valuation & risk
Raiffeisen Bank Intl (RBIAV)
Raiffeisen is undergoing a deep restructuring, and therefore remains vulnerable, especially given its above-average risk profile and the breadth of its exposures in CEE.
However, we do not see a near term catalyst and the bonds continue to trade at a discount to the sector.
Downside risks: failure of the disposal process of the Polish operations, significant liability form the CHF loan book, additional losses in the bank's Asian portfolio, pressure from the regulator for more decisive actions if the restructuring plan stalls.
Upside risks: RBI reaching the 12% CET1 target much sooner than expected, reorganisation of the Raiffeisen Group that would significantly improve RBI's capitalisation.
RZB Group (RZB)
Raiffeisen is undergoing a deep restructuring, and therefore remains vulnerable, especially given its above-average risk profile and the breadth of its exposures in CEE.
However, we do not see a near term catalyst and the bonds continue to trade at a discount to the sector. The €5.169% bond is callable next year, and therefore has some optionality attached to it.
Downside risks: failure of the disposal process of the Polish operations, significant liability form the CHF loan book, additional losses in the bank's Asian portfolio, pressure from the regulator for more decisive actions if the restructuring plan stalls.
Upside risks: RBI reaching the 12% CET1 target much sooner than expected, reorganisation of the Raiffeisen Group that would significantly improve RBI's capitalisation.
Moving to Marketweight in absence of bad news RBI bonds have rallied since the beginning of October and have now reached YTD highs.
The longer-dated T2 bonds yield around 6% and the €6.625% 21s just under 5%.
Similar to previous quarters, Q3 numbers were characterized by a relatively resilient result in Russia, modest incremental progress in restructuring and absence of bad news with respect to the bank’s key areas of risk, such as the non-core Asian book.
We think this may continue to be the case in the near term, which would be supportive for the bonds.
In particular, any developments in Poland – both positive (sale of the unit) and negative (potential CHF loan conversion) – may be delayed owing to the change of government after the recent elections.
Recognising the downside risks, but not seeing a near-term catalyst, we move to Marketweight from Underweight across RBI’s capital structure.
Capital: 10.8% at end-Q3
RBI’s solvency position has improved this year with the CET1 ratio now at 10.8%, up 76bp vs. end-2014. Q3 impairments were exceptionally low and the bank is likely to be loss-making in Q4 on the back of a rise in loan losses.
In particular, we expect some extra reserving for the Asian portfolio to facilitate its run-down.
However, RBI could still end the year with a broadly unchanged or only marginally lower capital ratio, as some offset would come from the Q3 profit (unaudited and hence not yet included in capital) and the gain on the sale of the Russian pension fund (~20bp).
This would still be well below the bank’s end-2017 target of 12%, but it would demonstrate that some progress has been achieved this year.
We think this perhaps would be enough to satisfy the regulators – observing recent developments at e.g. HSH Nordbank, Monte dei Paschi and Novo Banco, we sense a somewhat more lenient regulatory backdrop in Europe for stressed banks than we’d previously feared.
Poland now in focus
RBI’s restructuring has so far concentrated on the more marginal parts of the plan (Zuno, Slovenia, US). With these likely out of the way by year-end, the bank will shift its focus in 2016 to the sale of its Polish unit, which houses €8.5bn of RWAs, including ~€1bn RWAs from CHF-denominated loans.
RBI has been clear that it intends to carve out the €3bn CHF portfolio and restart the sale process for the remaining operations.
This will take time, we think, as regulatory approvals may be delayed given the change of government. In turn, any transaction could perhaps only be announced later in 2016 and close in 2017.
The contingent liability from the CHF book remains difficult to quantify at this stage as both the new president and government have yet to formulate their proposals.
Recent headlines suggest, however, a more bank-friendly solution than
the one voiced during the election campaign.
Downside risks remain
As RBI is still undergoing a deep restructuring, it remains vulnerable, especially given its above-average risk profile and the breadth of its exposures in CEE.
In particular, a more punitive backdrop for Polish banks as a result of the bank tax and CHF loan conversion law could reduce the appetite for RBI’s Polish assets and jeopardise the sale process.
We also note that the regulatory pressure on capital levels for European banks continues and could require RBI to eventually reach a CET1 ratio above the targeted 12%.
Group reorganization – an ongoing debate
Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that RBI is considering a merger with its parent and majority owner – RZB – and Raiffeisenlandesbank Niederoesterreich-Wien AG, RZB’s biggest shareholder. RBI has frequently downplayed such a scenario in the past, although the debate about the reorganization of the broader Raiffeisen Group, with its complex ownership structure, has been going on for quite some time now.
Whether any simplification of the group structure would ultimately be positive for capital would depend on its exact terms. It could nonetheless increase Raiffeisen Group’s financial flexibility, in our view, allowing it to more easily access the equity markets, for instance.
Valuation & risk
Raiffeisen Bank Intl (RBIAV)
Raiffeisen is undergoing a deep restructuring, and therefore remains vulnerable, especially given its above-average risk profile and the breadth of its exposures in CEE.
However, we do not see a near term catalyst and the bonds continue to trade at a discount to the sector.
Downside risks: failure of the disposal process of the Polish operations, significant liability form the CHF loan book, additional losses in the bank's Asian portfolio, pressure from the regulator for more decisive actions if the restructuring plan stalls.
Upside risks: RBI reaching the 12% CET1 target much sooner than expected, reorganisation of the Raiffeisen Group that would significantly improve RBI's capitalisation.
RZB Group (RZB)
Raiffeisen is undergoing a deep restructuring, and therefore remains vulnerable, especially given its above-average risk profile and the breadth of its exposures in CEE.
However, we do not see a near term catalyst and the bonds continue to trade at a discount to the sector. The €5.169% bond is callable next year, and therefore has some optionality attached to it.
Downside risks: failure of the disposal process of the Polish operations, significant liability form the CHF loan book, additional losses in the bank's Asian portfolio, pressure from the regulator for more decisive actions if the restructuring plan stalls.
Upside risks: RBI reaching the 12% CET1 target much sooner than expected, reorganisation of the Raiffeisen Group that would significantly improve RBI's capitalisation.
Rottweiler
Forumer storico
Riassumendo: qualcuno nella galassia Raiffeisen spinge per ridimensionare le attività estere e assicurative, e di proteggere quelle austriache; qualcuno difende la linea internazionale.
Risultato: ieri le dichiarazioni a Bloomberg, oggi queste:
RBI will Russland-Tochter nicht verkaufen | 17.11.15 | finanzen.at
Sarebbe bene se smettessero di litigare e seguissero in modo concorde una sola strada.
Risultato: ieri le dichiarazioni a Bloomberg, oggi queste:
RBI will Russland-Tochter nicht verkaufen | 17.11.15 | finanzen.at
Sarebbe bene se smettessero di litigare e seguissero in modo concorde una sola strada.
cris71
Forumer storico
Sempre l'influenza della politica a cui accennavi ieri,la vendita della partecipazione in Uniqa non è mai stata presa in considerazione, almeno a livello ufficiale.
Se mi permettete un OT , un piccolo appunto lo faccio agli amici Italiani , noto spesso ( anche tra i vari forum ) un eccesso di critiche , appunti e rimproveri contro il vostro Paese e la classe politica in generale. Non entro nel merito della questione, mi sembra , tuttavia ,che spesso tutte queste critiche siano eccessive, a volte immotivate , Pensate davvero che negli altri Paesi la classe dirigente sia migliore? Un chiaro esempio lo abbiamo proprio in Raiffeisen bank...vi lascio quindi con un piccolo proverbio " die Menschen sind doch überall gleich"
Ultima modifica:
jjletho
Forumer attivo
capt.harlock
MENA IL CAMMELLO FAN CLUB
rzb
quella che sale di piu' oggi e' la 040
55 area
quella che sale di piu' oggi e' la 040
55 area
Jackrussel
Forumer storico
Ho visto anch'io...è tornata praticamente al mio pmc...dopo tempo immemorabile e faticose , rischiose mediazioni...
Mah, non manca molto e raggiungerà i range di prezzi baca, siamo lì, e lì si fermerà per forza
Come la vedi ?
Vet
Forumer storico
questa l' ho ancora fin dai tempi la cui quotazione era assai vicina alla 025......avessi swicciato ora sarei più sereno...contento..e ricco...pazienza
Ultima modifica:
ferdo
Utente Senior
capt.harlock
MENA IL CAMMELLO FAN CLUB
Similar threads
- Bloccata
Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate
Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 2
- Bloccata
Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate
Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 1
