Rating Action: Moody's assigns (P)Ba1 to proposed hybrid of Enel S.p.A.; negative outlook
Global Credit Research - 03 Jun 2013
London, 03 June 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today assigned a provisional (P)Ba1 long-term rating to the proposed issuance of Capital Securities (the "Hybrid"), in euro-, sterling- and US dollar-denominated tranches, by ENEL S.p.A. ("Enel"). The outlook on the rating is negative. The size and completion of the Hybrid remain subject to market conditions.
Moody's issues provisional ratings in advance of the final sale of securities and these ratings reflect Moody's preliminary credit opinion regarding the transaction only. Upon a conclusive review of the final documentation, Moody's will endeavour to assign a definitive rating to the Hybrid. A definitive rating may differ from a provisional rating.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating of (P)Ba1 assigned to the Hybrid is two notches below Enel's senior unsecured rating of Baa2. The rating differential with the senior unsecured rating reflects the key features of the Hybrid, namely that (1) it is a deeply subordinated instrument; (2) it has a minimum 60-year maturity; (3) Enel can opt to defer coupons on a cumulative basis; and (4) there is no step-up in coupon prior to year 10 and the step-up will not exceed a total of 100 basis points thereafter.
Moody's notes that the Hybrid issuance is in line with Enel's financial policies announced at the time of its March update of its 2013-17 business plan, which are factored in the current Baa2 senior unsecured rating. The company plans to reduce its high leverage and enhance its financial flexibility through a series of measures over the life of the plan. In addition to Hybrid issuance, Enel plans to make asset disposals of EUR6 billion, operating expenditure cuts of EUR4 billion, and maintain flexibility in its capex programme of EUR27 billion with the aim of strengthening its financial profile by the end of 2014.
Moody's notes, however, that the macroeconomic, regulatory and operating environment in its core Italian and Spanish markets remains challenging, which could slow Enel's financial recovery. The rating agency expects recent regulatory measures taken in Spain during 2012 and early 2013 to result in a decline in Enel's EBITDA of around EUR1.3 billion in 2013. Further regulatory measures are expected to be announced by the government in the summer that may also affect the company, although they are unlikely to be of the same order of magnitude. Enel's generation margins in both Italy and Spain remain under pressure because of weak demand and market oversupply.
The Baa2 senior unsecured rating also factors (1) Enel's large scale and geographic diversification; (2) the beneficial impact of expected growth in its Latin American, international and renewables business divisions although this will only partially mitigate pressure on earnings in core Italian and Spanish markets; and (3) its strong liquidity position.
OUTLOOK
Given that Enel's core markets are Italy and Spain, the current negative outlook on the company's ratings is aligned to that of the Baa2-rated Italian and Baa3-rated Spanish sovereigns.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN
As the Hybrid rating is positioned relative to another rating of Enel, either (1) a change in the senior unsecured rating of Enel or (2) a re-evaluation of its relative notching could affect the Hybrid rating.
Further negative rating pressure could result from (1) a further deterioration of Spanish or Italian sovereign creditworthiness below investment grade; (2) a significant deterioration in Enel's operating environment; or (3) the company deviating significantly from its plan to strengthen its financial profile over the 2013-14 period such that it can generally achieve ratios in the region of retained cash flow (RCF)/net debt in the mid-teens and funds from operations (FFO)/net debt of around twenty in percentage terms.
Given the current negative outlook, Moody's does not currently anticipate any upwards rating pressure. The rating agency could consider changing the outlook on the rating to stable if (1) the outlook on both the Spanish and Italian sovereigns were to stabilise; and (2) Enel were able to achieve and maintain the improvement in financial metrics indicated.
PRINICPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was Unregulated Utilities and Power Companies published in August 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on
Moody's - credit ratings, research, tools and analysis for the global capital markets for a copy of this methodology.
Enel is the principal electric utility in Italy and is 31.2%-owned by the Italian state. Through its ownership of Endesa S.A., Enel also has a leading position in electricity in Spain and Latin America. Moreover, it has interests in Russia, South East and Central Europe. Its renewables businesses are held through Enel Green Power S.p.A..