Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 1 (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione troppidebiti
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
tommy271
Forumer storico
Sempre sui provvedimenti di Maduro:
Venezuela's Maduro plans government pay cuts due to oil price slide | Reuters
Venezuela's Maduro plans government pay cuts due to oil price slide | Reuters
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Ciao,
siamo sicuri al 100% che se saltasse, God Forbid, PDVSA travolgerebbe anche CITGO ?
Non c'è nessun trust, loophole etc etc che protegga CITGO ?
Ultima modifica:
tommy271
Forumer storico
Citgo è controllata al 100% da PDVSA ... infatti, la preoccupazione maggiore di Conoco-Phillips è la possibile vendita di Citgo dopo la sentenza favorevole dell'ICSIS... se sono sul piede di allerta, significa che il bene è attaccabile per tramite di PDVSA.
Poi nello specifico ... i dettagli li conosco poco.
A quel che mi risulta, Maduro e Torres (dopo molti tentennamenti) hanno smentito i propositi di vendere CITGO.
Per il paese sarebbe uno smacco "psicologico" ... ed un favore all'opposizione.
Gli ultimi rumors davano possibile uno spezzatino di CITGO con la vendita di Chalmette e di un'altra raffineria.
Nei mesi scorsi è stata venduta una raffineria sulle Isole Vergini, non strategica.
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Aggiungo da JPM (26-11)
A potential default of Venezuela/PDVSA and/or lack of resolution of the
Argentine default are also important risk factors in 2015. We remain of the
opinion that Venezuela and PDVSA have strong incentives to continue to service
their external debt, and they still have some room to maneuver. While the USD
revenue stream is lower with current oil prices, it remains substantial (some
$50bn/year) compared to external bond debt service ($10bn), and the Chinese
continue to roll over lending (around $4bn per year). However, the lack of domestic
policy adjustments implies a strong cash drain from capital flight and difficult
political environment in front of 2015 legislative elections, resulting in high risks,
especially in 2H15. In Argentina, the market expects a resolution of the holdout
negotiations, either by the current administration (in 1Q15) or by the next
administration after October’s elections. Continuing delays in reaching a settlement,
in particular after the elections, could exacerbate the country’s already weak
macroeconomic backdrop and possibly lead to a breakdown of Argentina’s current
weak institutional framework.
Commodity prices, especially crude oil, could remain weak or decrease even
further. In 2015, J.P. Morgan analysts expect iron ore average prices to decline
11.1% versus 2014E levels due to supply growth exceeding demand. The outlook for
copper prices (mostly relevant for Peru and Chile players) is less negative, with
average prices expected to be down 2% in 2015 as current trends suggest a relatively
balanced market over the next 12 months. Oil prices have declined 20% in the last
two months, and there is a lot of uncertainty if they will recover in the coming weeks.
J.P. Morgan’s commodities team recently revised down their expectations for 2015
(average of $82/bbl for Brent) and 2016 (average of $87.75/bbl) versus $80.36/bbl
currently. The next important event will be the OPEC meeting at the end of
November. Our commodities team foresees crude prices going down to $70/bbl in
December if OPEC doesn’t cut production and could even go to $65/bbl by early
January. The impact from lower oil prices on Latin America credits would be more
mixed. Lower crude prices should affect the profitability of many of the companies
in the sector and could push producers to revise capex plans. An interesting case is
Petrobras, which has recorded big losses in its refining business due to the disparity
between domestic and international prices. Taking into consideration lower crude
prices and a fixed BRL, the company would be able to reduce the burn on its refining
business. However, in the medium term, the effect could be negative as lower prices
put pressure on its E&P business, despite likely higher production. This could limit
the company’s plan to reduce its high net leverage....
Una postilla : nonostante la mia profonda ammirazione per JPM (e per la madre, caraquena, della miglior amica di una delle mie figlie : "non faremo MAI come l'Argentina"), non sono dentro al venezuelame . Non riterrei corretto, in caso di default, prendersela con JPM. Ciascuno valuti.
A potential default of Venezuela/PDVSA and/or lack of resolution of the
Argentine default are also important risk factors in 2015. We remain of the
opinion that Venezuela and PDVSA have strong incentives to continue to service
their external debt, and they still have some room to maneuver. While the USD
revenue stream is lower with current oil prices, it remains substantial (some
$50bn/year) compared to external bond debt service ($10bn), and the Chinese
continue to roll over lending (around $4bn per year). However, the lack of domestic
policy adjustments implies a strong cash drain from capital flight and difficult
political environment in front of 2015 legislative elections, resulting in high risks,
especially in 2H15. In Argentina, the market expects a resolution of the holdout
negotiations, either by the current administration (in 1Q15) or by the next
administration after October’s elections. Continuing delays in reaching a settlement,
in particular after the elections, could exacerbate the country’s already weak
macroeconomic backdrop and possibly lead to a breakdown of Argentina’s current
weak institutional framework.
Commodity prices, especially crude oil, could remain weak or decrease even
further. In 2015, J.P. Morgan analysts expect iron ore average prices to decline
11.1% versus 2014E levels due to supply growth exceeding demand. The outlook for
copper prices (mostly relevant for Peru and Chile players) is less negative, with
average prices expected to be down 2% in 2015 as current trends suggest a relatively
balanced market over the next 12 months. Oil prices have declined 20% in the last
two months, and there is a lot of uncertainty if they will recover in the coming weeks.
J.P. Morgan’s commodities team recently revised down their expectations for 2015
(average of $82/bbl for Brent) and 2016 (average of $87.75/bbl) versus $80.36/bbl
currently. The next important event will be the OPEC meeting at the end of
November. Our commodities team foresees crude prices going down to $70/bbl in
December if OPEC doesn’t cut production and could even go to $65/bbl by early
January. The impact from lower oil prices on Latin America credits would be more
mixed. Lower crude prices should affect the profitability of many of the companies
in the sector and could push producers to revise capex plans. An interesting case is
Petrobras, which has recorded big losses in its refining business due to the disparity
between domestic and international prices. Taking into consideration lower crude
prices and a fixed BRL, the company would be able to reduce the burn on its refining
business. However, in the medium term, the effect could be negative as lower prices
put pressure on its E&P business, despite likely higher production. This could limit
the company’s plan to reduce its high net leverage....
Una postilla : nonostante la mia profonda ammirazione per JPM (e per la madre, caraquena, della miglior amica di una delle mie figlie : "non faremo MAI come l'Argentina"), non sono dentro al venezuelame . Non riterrei corretto, in caso di default, prendersela con JPM. Ciascuno valuti.
Ultima modifica:
ferdo
Utente Senior
Sono in denaro da gg ma finora non mi han mai servito ... Attendo fiducioso
Qualche gg fa dei "colleghi" sono entrati
tommy271
Forumer storico
Concordo per il rischio elevato per le elezioni legislative del prossimo anno... infatti, se Maduro era un pò più sveglio il programma di riforme doveva metterlo in atto nei primi mesi di quest'anno ... non essendo "obbligato" dai mercati durante l'anno elettorale.
Consiglierei a Maduro di rinviare le elezioni ... tanto dicono sia un "dittatore" ... svolga il suo ruolo a fondo ...
.
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Consiglierei a Maduro di rinviare le elezioni ... tanto dicono sia un "dittatore" ... svolga il suo ruolo a fondo ...
"Rinviare" in che senso ? Nel senso di postporre più che può ? (autunno 2015) O nell'altro senso ?
Non vorrei irritare la gentile (miliardaria maduriana in Italia
) amica caraquena, ma noi, utilitaristicamente, non ci dovremmo augurare la vittoria del candidato non sgradito agli Yankee , invece di sperare in un alzamientino ?- Stato