aggiornamento della situazione.
sicad 2 in stallo a 52.10 bv per usd.
mercato nero a 155 bv per usd.
riserve in lieve dimunuizione a 20.75 mld.
prezzo medio della cesta su base settimanale a 39.19 usd barile.
segnalo che moody potrebbe declassare la russia.
oggi maduro rientra e sarà ricevuto dal popolo... il giro dall'aeroporto dovrebbe cominciare verso le 17 ora italiana.
per il resto, una sbirciata sui fogli della compagnia durante la riunione con putin:
Entérese que decían los papeles de Maduro en su reunión con Putin (fotodetalles)
riunione dell'opposizione per pianificare le prossime proteste:
http://eltiempo.com.ve/venezuela/politica/mud-hay-unidad-opositora-para-acciones-de-protesta/168532
bloomberg sulla situazione della norvegia:
Norway?s Oil Crisis Talks Lead to Stimulus Pledges If Needed - Bloomberg
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poi un paio di articoli del FT:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d1c12d6a-9dab-11e4-8946-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3P4nuLZfD
The number of rigs drilling for oil in the US dropped sharply this week as plunging crude prices hit development of shale reserves, the most-watched survey of industry activity has shown.
There were 1,366 rigs drilling wells primarily for oil in the US, the lowest number since October 2013, according to Baker Hughes, the oilfield services company that compiles a weekly count.
The number of oil-directed rigs has now fallen 15 per cent from its recent peak of 1,609 in October last year.
The figures show a broad-based decline in activity in all the areas that have led the US shale oil boom, reinforcing expectations that US crude production growth will slow sharply this year, or even go into reverse.
Standard & Poor’s on Friday downgraded the ratings of eight smaller US exploration and production companies, including Swift Energy, Magnum Hunter Resources and Energy XXI. The credit rating agency also put nine more companies on a negative outlook for possible future downgrades, including Whiting Petroleum, Denbury Resources, Halcon Resources and SandRidge Energy.
The US Energy Information Administration this week forecast a decline of about 3 per cent in US crude production between May and September of this year, but it said it still expected average production for the year to rise this year and next.
However, those growth rates are slower than it had previously predicted, and other forecasters including the International Energy Agency, the wealthy nations’ watchdog, and Opec, the producing countries’ cartel, have also said they expect a slowdown in US production growth.
Many North American oil exploration and production companies are cutting capital spending sharply, both to conserve cash as revenues tumble, and because they believe that if they hold off drilling now they will be able to produce the oil more profitably when prices recover.
Continental Resources, a pioneer of US shale oil production, said it planned to run 31 rigs on average this year, down from 50 at the end of last year.
The total number of oil rigs working in the Williston basin, which includes the Bakken shale of North Dakota, has dropped by 34, or 17 per cent, since October, while the number in the Eagle Ford shale of south Texas has dropped by 32, or 16 per cent. The number in the Permian basin of west Texas is down 81 rigs, or 14 per cent.
The decline appears to be accelerating: the North American oil rig count has dropped by 170 in the past four weeks, compared to a decline of 38 in the preceding four weeks.
The Baker Hughes data helped push US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude $1.83 higher to $48.04. The international marker, Brent, rose $1.57 to $49.84.
Opec’s November decision to maintain output at 30m barrels a day — rather than cut production to shore up prices in the short term — has been intended to slow growth in US shale production and output from other high-cost producers in an attempt to retain market share.
Paal Kibsgaard, chief executive of Schlumberger, the oil services group, said on a call with analysts on Friday that he expected lower activity in North America, with low oil prices testing the resilience of producers in terms of “their ability to get financing, their ability to continue to drive cost efficiency and reduce cost per barrel, and also their ability to maintain production at current levels.”
He was speaking after Schlumberger on Thursday announced $1.77bn in writedowns in its fourth-quarter results and said it planned to cut 9,000 jobs in response to the fall in oil prices.
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commento di schipani... premetto che ci trovo parecchie inesattezze.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0cc530b6-9b2f-11e4-882d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3P4nuLZfD
Jamaica has its “Hope Zoo”, in Nicaragua garish yellow sculptures decorate the avenues of Managua called “The Trees of Life”, while Haiti has the “Hugo Chávez International Airport”.
All are monuments to the glory days when Venezuela’s socialist leader Hugo Chávez was still alive, oil prices were high, and revolutionary Caracas, which sits on the largest energy reserves in the world, could afford to send 200,000 barrels per day of subsidised oil to 13 countries, including Cuba, in return for their political support and sometimes repayment with goods in kind — like black beans.
Today, however, with oil prices having halved in six months, Venezuela’s economy in a tailspin and protests rising at home over food shortages, Caracas is having to rethink the Petrocaribe subsidised oil arrangement in order to finance dwindling imports, rebuild foreign reserves and avoid a bond default.
“The [Petrocaribe] arrangement will survive, but the terms will have to be revised due to Venezuela’s critical situation,” said Néstor Avendaño, an economist in Managua.
The need to adjust the Petrocaribe programme — worth 3 per cent of gross domestic product to countries such as Jamaica, Guyana and Belize — but which has cost Venezuela an estimated $44bn in forgone income since 2005, seems inevitable,
although erratic policy making in Caracas does not mean changes will happen.
Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s president, is on a world tour seeking financial support and an “equilibrium” oil price of $100 a barrel. By contrast, the price of Venezuelan oil, which accounts for 96 per cent of exports, fell to less than half that last week, exacerbating fears the country may miss $11bn of bond payments due this year.
A visit to Beijing last week secured vague promises of $20bn of investment, but no immediate lifeline. In Qatar on Monday, Mr Maduro then said he was working on a “financial alliance” with Doha banks worth “various” billions of dollars but gave no details. In Caracas, meanwhile, police have limited shopping to two days a week at state-run supermarkets with bare shelves.
Benchmark Venezuelan bonds have more than halved in six months to 39 cents on the dollar, and Moody’s, the rating agency, downgraded Venezuela on Tuesday to Caa3, its lowest non-default rating.
“Venezuela cannot squeeze its oil lemon any more,” said Jorge Piñón, a Latin America energy expert at the University of Texas.
Nonetheless, despite the financing drought, there is little sign that Venezuela has stopped squeezing. A central problem is that much of the estimated 2.5m bpd of oil production by state oil company PDVSA is mortgaged by commitments, such as Petrocaribe, which Caracas either cannot or does not want to abandon.
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0cc530b6-9b2f-11e4-882d-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3P50CzzJW
Around 600,000 bpd of highly-subsidised refined oil is consumed locally, another 500,000 bpd is sent to China to service $50bn of past oil-backed loans, while 200,000 bpd is devoted to Petrocaribe of which 100,000 bpd goes to Cuba.
That leaves around 1.2m bpd to sell on world markets, worth less than $20bn a year at current prices. By contrast, Venezuelan imports were $77bn two years ago.
Petrocaribe’s subsidised oil programme “has a negative impact on PDVSA’S cash flow,” said David Voght, managing director of IPD Latin America, a consultancy. So far, however, Venezuela has not apparently scaled back Petrocaribe; the latest PDVSA figures show 206,000 bpd delivered until last September.
One reason for continued shipments could be that the Petrocaribe subsidy shrinks dramatically at lower oil prices. At $100 a barrel, example, 60 per cent of the price is re-paid at low interest rates, after two years’ grace. At $50 a barrel, however, the subsidy is only 40 per cent.
The International Monetary Fund last year recommended that Venezuela, given its “external liquidity constraints, including a continued fall in international reserves, could choose to reduce or eliminate these schemes”. Some Petrocaribe countries have made contingency plans and analysts have recommended they switch to cheap US shale gas instead.
"
It will be a heavy blow to the socialist revolution to say they cannot support their brothers in Haiti or their fellow revolutionaries in Nicaragua, let alone its staunch ally, Cuba. It will be like admitting Venezuela is an economic failure" - Jorge Piñón, University of Texas.
Guatemala has withdrawn from the scheme, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic have reportedly securitised past Petrocaribe debts owed to Venezuela via Goldman Sachs, while Cuba — Venezuela’s closest ally — has begun talks to re-establish US diplomatic relations.
Nonetheless, Guaicaipuro Lameda, a former president of PDVSA under Chávez, believes that Mr Maduro, despite an approval rating of only 22 per cent, will continue the scheme as it buys Caracas support at the UN and other forums. Petrocaribe “is fundamentally political, so the economic costs will be paid,” he said.
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un commento del simpatico hausmann su twitter: "Maduro says $100 is fair for a barrel of oil. But in Venezuela gas is sold at 9 cents of $ a barrel. 1$ buys over 1700 liters of gas."
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allego la situazione EUR/USD, oil, e sintesi documento OPEC.
