analisi di Moody's
Venezuela’s Economic Measures Do Little to Stave Off a Threat of Default
Last Wednesday, Venezuela (Caa3 stable) President Nicolas Maduro, during his annual message to the
National Assembly, unveiled a handful of measures aimed at stabilizing the country’s economy. The
proposed measures are credit negative because they are unlikely to materially alter the current conditions
that heighten the probability of default and losses and drove our recent downgrade of the sovereign’s rating
to Caa3 from Caa1.
Mr. Maduro conceded that economic conditions require adjustments to the country’s economic model. We
expect that the economy will contract 1.5% in 2015 following our estimate of a 3.3% contraction in 2014.
But despite market expectations, Mr. Maduro announced few concrete measures and suggested that the
current situation did not warrant drastic changes.
During his nearly three-hour speech, Mr. Maduro proposed limited changes to the country’s three-tiered
exchange rate regime, increased government supervision of distribution chains to curb smuggling and
shortages and called for a national debate on raising domestic fuel prices. Mr. Maduro also announced a
15% increase to the minimum wage as of 1 February, along with promises to expand social spending
including pensions.
Mr. Maduro made brief mention of the domestic fuel price hike, for which the government would likely
propose as a series of gradual increases. He said that Vice President Jorge Arreaza will discuss the
government's strategy with the National Assembly, and invited students and the general population to
participate in the debate. Although market participants will likely view the move as positive because it
would support a marginal decrease in the fiscal deficit,10 the fiscal adjustments will not materially reduce
the shortage of dollars in the economy.
In this regard, the markets also expected a devaluation of the Venezuelan currency, the bolivar, through
adjustments or a partial unification of the three rates at which Venezuelans can buy a limited amount of
dollars that are critical for purchasing already scarce imported goods. Nevertheless, the government will
maintain the lowest exchange rate of 6.3 bolivares per dollar in order to guarantee a subsidized cost of food
and medicine, which are largely imported. The government is likely to alter two other rates, but the
president delegated this responsibility to the monetary authorities.
Limiting imports and exchange rate adjustments would be an important step in stabilizing the country’s
rapidly deteriorating balance of payments. Underpinning our assessment of a heightened probability of
default is our estimate that there will be a substantial financing gap of nearly $40 billion in 2015 (see exhibit
below), highlighting the dollar shortages in Venezuela.
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