S&P: Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela 'BB-/B' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable
10.02.2011 - Standard & Poor's
S&P: Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela 'BB-/B' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable
•Venezuela continues to have erratic economic policies and weak institutions, with high off-budget government expenditures.
•However, the country's net external creditor position and the government's moderate debt burden continue to support policy flexibility.
•We have affirmed the 'BB-/B' sovereign credit rating on Venezuela.
•The outlook remains stable, balancing the negative effects of interventionist government policies against still-robust fiscal and external positions.
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 9, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it affirmed its 'BB-' long-term and 'B' short-term foreign- and local-currency sovereign credit ratings on the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. The outlook remains stable, and the '4' recovery rating and 'BB-' transfer and convertibility assessment are unchanged.
"The ratings on Venezuela are constrained by political factors and supported by the country's strong external and fiscal positions," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Roberto Sifon-Arevalo.
In Standard & Poor's opinion, changing and arbitrary laws, price and exchange controls, and other distorting and unpredictable economic measures weaken Venezuela's domestic economy. Frequent nationalization of private-sector entities has added to policy uncertainty, undermined private-sector investment, and hurt productivity.
Partly offsetting the troubled policy environment are the country's vast oil and gas reserves, which are key positive factors in external and fiscal performance. Venezuela regularly posts current account surpluses, and, with capital outflows constrained by foreign exchange controls, has a fairly strong net external asset position.
Severe electricity shortages stemming from poor generator maintenance and lower-than-usual rain levels, as well as a reduction in government expenditure, hurt economic output in 2010. Real GDP declined 1.9% in 2010, the second consecutive year of contraction. As government expenditure will likely increase in the wake of the 2012 elections and the electricity problems have been resolved, we expect that GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012.
"The stable outlook balances the risks associated with interventionist government policies and their negative impact on investment and growth prospects against still-robust fiscal and external positions," Mr. Sifon-Arevalo added. However, if oil prices decline significantly and over an extended period without offsetting adjustments to the government's policy mix, the country's external and fiscal indicators could weaken and hurt the ratings. Alternatively, we could raise the ratings if fiscal and external indicators improve, the government is able to lower inflation, and policies more friendly to investment and growth are adopted.
, ho trovato questa notizia.
La stime sembrerebbe confermata congiuntamente dalla Compagnia Statale Petrolio del Venezuela (PDVSA), Consorzio Nazionale Petrolifero russo (CNP), Lukoil, Rosneft, Gazprom, Surgutneftega e TNK-B. Di pari avviso pure la USGS (servizio geologico statunitense).
...dopo essersi rimpinzato di Venezuela ...ha cominciato a ripensarci ...e poi ...più nulla "desaparecidos"
