Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 1

[Obi W. Kenobi]

posizione ulteriormente alleggerita.

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Sistemi di controllo cambiario dal 2003:

1) Cencoex e Permuta
2) Cencoex e Sitme
3) Cencoex
4) Cencoex e Sicad
5) Cencoex, Sicad, Sicad 2 e Negro
6) Cencoex, Sicad, Simadi e Negro

El chavismo en números: Actualizado

Años Control de Cambio: 12
Devaluaciones: 7
Convenios Cambiarios 32
Fuga de Capitales: $ 153 millardos

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un po' di dati sul sicad 2 in questo anno di funzionamento:

A propósito de la eliminación de Sicad II: este sistema desde su creación hasta el 27/01 ofertó US$ 6.436,7 millones

A propósito de la eliminación de Sicad II: la oferta del sector público hasta el 27/01 fue de US$ 5.904 millones (91,7% de la oferta total)

A propósito de la eliminación de Sicad II: la oferta total del sector privado fue US$532,7 millones, 8,3% del total ofertado

A propósito de la eliminación de Sicad II: el tipo de cambio promedio fue de VEB 50,4/US$

A propósito de la eliminación de Sicad II: el volumen promedio diario de este sistema fue de US$31,1 millones

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http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL1N0VK35820150210

CARACAS Feb 10 (Reuters) - Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA said on Tuesday maintenance work was successfully completed at its Petrocedeno heavy crude upgrader and the plant was now producing 240,000 barrels per day.

The Petrocedeno project converts extra-heavy crude from the Orinoco region into lighter, more valuable oil.

PDVSA owns 60 percent of Petrocedeno, with France's Total holding 30.3 percent and Norway's Statoil owning the remaining 9.7 percent.

PDVSA quoted Petrocedeno general manager Edwin Hernandez as saying, during a visit by a delegation of Total officials, that operations restarted a week ago after maintenance work that began at the end of October last year.

"Currently, the plant is processing 240,000 barrels of crude per day," the PDVSA statement added.

 

[Magician]

Idee operative da BofA per chi ha PDVSA:


We prefer PDVSA 17N vs PDVSA 16s
High market volatility led to several market dislocations in Venezuela, a potential for relative value opportunities in the short end of the curve. We prefer PDVSA 17N vs PDVSA 16 on limited downside and high upside potential if the government avoids a default by 2 November.
Rationale
We favor PDVSA 17N vs PDVSA 16 because:
1) it has a coupon pickup of 338bp per year[FONT=&quot]
2) it has a yield pickup of 750bp
3) if the first amortization of 33.3% is paid on November 2 on the PDVSA 17N,
the position will have far less exposure in the event of a subsequent default
4) PDVSA 17N is NY law and hence should have a higher recovery value
than the PDVSA 16 local law bond in the event of a default. [/FONT]
We think the loss will be limited in case of default as the PDVSA 17N price is practically the same as PDVSA 16s', yet it has a potential upside of around $8 since the price spread was about $9 just a few weeks ago. In addition, PDVSA 17N has a much lower breakeven forward price, of only $32 on 3 November 2015 vs $57.4 for the PDVSA '15s and a 49% pickup in forward yield (121% vs 72%).
We expect the trade to perform if the government continues selling assets, supportive of short maturity and higher coupon bonds, and if the government eventually implements a large adjustment via the new FX system. We think this trade will also perform in a scenario in which the government keeps on selling assets and continues servicing debt until November, but it does not implement the necessary FX and fiscal adjustment and market fears of default increase by then.
Risks
There could be a bid for the PDVSA 16s locally. Also, there could be also an unusual scenario in which the government unilaterally restructures the local law bonds but then defaults on the NY law bonds; we see this as unlikely. Finally, a further decline in oil prices and insufficient FX and fiscal adjustment, including the FX devaluation could increase default fears perceived by the market, compressing the price difference even further.

 

[SPERANZA]

Ragazzi MA qualche idee operativa per chi come e' dentro con il venezuela ?
li lasciamo stare o vendiamo e ricompriamo a prezzi piu bassi ?

 

[SPERANZA]

un analisi tecnica sul bond venez 2027 puo essere che si aperto un gap down stamane ,quindi si presume che dovrebbe chiuderlo ma questo si puo verificare anche tra 1 anno mai piu o tra 1 minuto...
cosa ne pensate?

 

[tommy271]

Ragazzi MA qualche idee operativa per chi come e' dentro con il venezuela ?
li lasciamo stare o vendiamo e ricompriamo a prezzi piu bassi ?

Sei sei bravo e fortunato ci fai trading.
Altrimenti resta a guardare ... oppure liquida le posizioni.

 

[Camajan]

IMHO, alla "madurate" sul sistema dei cambi.

akkolte trionfalmente dal merkato

 

[tommy271]

akkolte trionfalmente dal merkato

Oggi, poi, c'è anche il WTI che preme verso il basso ... ora a 49,95$.

 

[Obi W. Kenobi]

akkolte trionfalmente dal merkato

concordo, non aspettavano altro

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obama con limiti sullo stato islamico: Obama seeks some limits on ground troops for Islamic State fight | Reuters

sul simadi: http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/banca/empresas-podran-repatriar-capital--via-simadi.aspx

in generale sull'oil: Oil producers outside OPEC stuck in crossfire with shale

 

[Obi W. Kenobi]

Presidente Maduro aprueba más de $ 3.400 millones para construir 400 mil viviendas este año | Correo del Orinoco

 

[tommy271]

Bonos venezolanos caen tras anuncios cambiarios


[FONT=&quot] El precio del bono Global 2031 caía 3,050 puntos para un rendimiento de 28,043%





[/FONT]
10:03 a.m. | Reuters.- Los bonos venezolanos caían el miércoles luego que el Gobierno anunció una nueva plataforma cambiaria que muchos consideran insuficiente para resolver la crisis económica del país.

El precio del bono Global 2031 caía 3,050 puntos para un rendimiento de 28,043 por ciento, mientras que el Global 2026 bajaba 4,6 puntos para un retorno de 29,57 por ciento.

Los bonos de la petrolera estatal PDVSA también caían. El papel al 2017 retrocedía 3,170 puntos en precio para un rendimiento de 49,214%.