Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 1 (5 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione troppidebiti
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
fabriziof
Forumer storico
Fitch Affirms Venezuela's IDRs at 'B+'; Outlook Negative
March 28, 2013 - Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Venezuela's ratings as follows:
--Long-term foreign currency (FC) and local currency (LC) Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'B+';
--Short-term FC IDR at 'B';
--Country Ceiling at 'B+'
The Rating Outlook is Negative.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The Negative Outlook reflects the following factors:
Policy choices related primarily to the exchange rate regime and the administration of the country's oil revenues have weighed on Venezuela's external and fiscal metrics as well as increased the sovereign's vulnerability to swings in international commodity prices.
External liquidity and the sovereign's external net position have deteriorated in comparison to the 'B' median due to the transfer of oil exports' and bilateral loan proceeds to off-budget funds. Moreover, in recent years, the sovereign has issued FX-denominated debt in the domestic market in order to address strong demand for FX assets due to a weak exchange rate regime.
In addition, political and policy uncertainty persists due to the magnitude of the current political transition in Venezuela. In the absence of President Hugo Chavez, the central figure in politics and policymaking over the past 14 years, the next government will face the challenges of consolidating its political position while at the same time rebalancing the Venezuelan economy.
The rating affirmation reflects the following factors:
Venezuela's ratings are currently underpinned by the sovereign's relative strong financing flexibility, favourable maturity profile, record of willingness to service debt and a favourable international oil price environment. A weak and volatile macroeconomic performance, a poor business environment, heightened commodity dependence, limited transparency in the administration and use of government-managed off-budget funds and relative weak institutional framework constitute key credit weaknesses.
After 5.5% growth in 2012, the economy is likely to slow down markedly over the forecast period because of the comparatively lower fiscal stimulus, devaluation of the official exchange rate, continued high inflation, and bottlenecks in the provision of FX to the private sector. A markedly expansionary policy mix, domestic supply constraints and continued devaluation and high inflation expectations are likely to maintain inflation at high levels. Negative real interest rates have helped credit expand at a brisk pace, which could create a source of macroeconomic vulnerability.
The central government deficit reportedly reached 4.9% of GDP in 2012. The February devaluation and still favourable oil prices could support a moderate fiscal consolidation to a deficit of 3% of GDP in 2013. After rising to 27.5% of GDP, central government debt could further increase to 29.6% in 2013, though still below 'B' rated peers. Nevertheless, the rapid growth of government debt in recent years has pushed the sovereign's interest burden to 11.4% of government revenues, above the 'B' median of 7.7%.
The recent changes in Venezuela's FX system could reduce the need for the sovereign to issue FX debt for exchange rate policy purposes. Nevertheless, in the absence of tighter fiscal and monetary policies with efficiency improvements in the allocation of FX to the private sector, the new system is not likely to improve macroeconomic stability.
Venezuela has generated continued current account surpluses since 1999, but these have failed to strengthen the sovereign's external balance sheet. In recent years, the authorities have channelled a significant portion of the country's oil-derived revenues to opaque off-budget funds such as the National Development Fund (FONDEN) in order to finance the government's policy priorities. The limited information regarding cash flows, quality of investments and outstanding balances increases the challenge to accurately assess the financial strength of the sovereign.
Commodity dependence continues to deepen, as oil represented 96% of total exports and 42% of total central government revenues in 2012. In addition, 62% of international reserves were held in gold at the end of 2012. As a result, Venezuela's balance of payments, fiscal accounts and external liquidity cushions are vulnerable to a decline in international commodity prices
Under current international oil prices, balance of payments and fiscal risks are manageable. Venezuela's amortization profile remains manageable at 1.7% and 1.2% of GDP in 2013 and 2014, respectively. In addition, government deposits at the end of 2012 equalled 7.8% of GDP. Further reducing roll-over risks, about 50% of domestic debt is held by public sector institutions.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Negative Outlook reflects the following risk factors that may, individually or collectively, result in a downgrade of the ratings by up to one notch:
--Further deterioration in the already weak policy environment that exacerbates the weakening of the sovereign's external and fiscal credit metrics vis-a-vis rating peers;
--Increased governability risks that undermine the potential for policy adjustments.
The current Rating Outlook is Negative. Consequently, Fitch's sensitivity analysis does not currently anticipate developments with a material likelihood, individually or collectively, leading to a rating upgrade. However, future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a stabilisation of the Outlook include:
--Policy adjustments that lead to reduced macroeconomic distortions and external and fiscal vulnerabilities;
--Strengthening and greater transparency of fiscal and external accounts.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
The ratings and Outlooks are sensitive to a number of assumptions.
Fitch assumes that international oil prices will remain above USD100 (Brent) over the forecast period. A sustained decline in international oil prices would exacerbate pressures on Venezuela's balance of payments and fiscal accounts and be negative for the rating.
Notwithstanding the significant political transition underway, Fitch judges the risk of social and political unrest leading to disruption in oil-derived revenues to have been materially reduced.
March 28, 2013 - Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Venezuela's ratings as follows:
--Long-term foreign currency (FC) and local currency (LC) Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'B+';
--Short-term FC IDR at 'B';
--Country Ceiling at 'B+'
The Rating Outlook is Negative.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The Negative Outlook reflects the following factors:
Policy choices related primarily to the exchange rate regime and the administration of the country's oil revenues have weighed on Venezuela's external and fiscal metrics as well as increased the sovereign's vulnerability to swings in international commodity prices.
External liquidity and the sovereign's external net position have deteriorated in comparison to the 'B' median due to the transfer of oil exports' and bilateral loan proceeds to off-budget funds. Moreover, in recent years, the sovereign has issued FX-denominated debt in the domestic market in order to address strong demand for FX assets due to a weak exchange rate regime.
In addition, political and policy uncertainty persists due to the magnitude of the current political transition in Venezuela. In the absence of President Hugo Chavez, the central figure in politics and policymaking over the past 14 years, the next government will face the challenges of consolidating its political position while at the same time rebalancing the Venezuelan economy.
The rating affirmation reflects the following factors:
Venezuela's ratings are currently underpinned by the sovereign's relative strong financing flexibility, favourable maturity profile, record of willingness to service debt and a favourable international oil price environment. A weak and volatile macroeconomic performance, a poor business environment, heightened commodity dependence, limited transparency in the administration and use of government-managed off-budget funds and relative weak institutional framework constitute key credit weaknesses.
After 5.5% growth in 2012, the economy is likely to slow down markedly over the forecast period because of the comparatively lower fiscal stimulus, devaluation of the official exchange rate, continued high inflation, and bottlenecks in the provision of FX to the private sector. A markedly expansionary policy mix, domestic supply constraints and continued devaluation and high inflation expectations are likely to maintain inflation at high levels. Negative real interest rates have helped credit expand at a brisk pace, which could create a source of macroeconomic vulnerability.
The central government deficit reportedly reached 4.9% of GDP in 2012. The February devaluation and still favourable oil prices could support a moderate fiscal consolidation to a deficit of 3% of GDP in 2013. After rising to 27.5% of GDP, central government debt could further increase to 29.6% in 2013, though still below 'B' rated peers. Nevertheless, the rapid growth of government debt in recent years has pushed the sovereign's interest burden to 11.4% of government revenues, above the 'B' median of 7.7%.
The recent changes in Venezuela's FX system could reduce the need for the sovereign to issue FX debt for exchange rate policy purposes. Nevertheless, in the absence of tighter fiscal and monetary policies with efficiency improvements in the allocation of FX to the private sector, the new system is not likely to improve macroeconomic stability.
Venezuela has generated continued current account surpluses since 1999, but these have failed to strengthen the sovereign's external balance sheet. In recent years, the authorities have channelled a significant portion of the country's oil-derived revenues to opaque off-budget funds such as the National Development Fund (FONDEN) in order to finance the government's policy priorities. The limited information regarding cash flows, quality of investments and outstanding balances increases the challenge to accurately assess the financial strength of the sovereign.
Commodity dependence continues to deepen, as oil represented 96% of total exports and 42% of total central government revenues in 2012. In addition, 62% of international reserves were held in gold at the end of 2012. As a result, Venezuela's balance of payments, fiscal accounts and external liquidity cushions are vulnerable to a decline in international commodity prices
Under current international oil prices, balance of payments and fiscal risks are manageable. Venezuela's amortization profile remains manageable at 1.7% and 1.2% of GDP in 2013 and 2014, respectively. In addition, government deposits at the end of 2012 equalled 7.8% of GDP. Further reducing roll-over risks, about 50% of domestic debt is held by public sector institutions.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Negative Outlook reflects the following risk factors that may, individually or collectively, result in a downgrade of the ratings by up to one notch:
--Further deterioration in the already weak policy environment that exacerbates the weakening of the sovereign's external and fiscal credit metrics vis-a-vis rating peers;
--Increased governability risks that undermine the potential for policy adjustments.
The current Rating Outlook is Negative. Consequently, Fitch's sensitivity analysis does not currently anticipate developments with a material likelihood, individually or collectively, leading to a rating upgrade. However, future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a stabilisation of the Outlook include:
--Policy adjustments that lead to reduced macroeconomic distortions and external and fiscal vulnerabilities;
--Strengthening and greater transparency of fiscal and external accounts.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
The ratings and Outlooks are sensitive to a number of assumptions.
Fitch assumes that international oil prices will remain above USD100 (Brent) over the forecast period. A sustained decline in international oil prices would exacerbate pressures on Venezuela's balance of payments and fiscal accounts and be negative for the rating.
Notwithstanding the significant political transition underway, Fitch judges the risk of social and political unrest leading to disruption in oil-derived revenues to have been materially reduced.
Gianni.Mello
Forumer attivo
Consiglierei di leggere l'analisi sul Venezuela del dopo Chavez sul foglio di oggi: Il Foglio.it - [ Edizione online ]
russiabond
Il mito, la leggenda.
...ci saranno tempi migliori
Ma sopratutto con prezzi " migliori" ...tutta questione di timing...e pazienza
iguanito
Forumer storico
Saggio consiglio. Soprattutto dovrebbero leggerlo coloro i quali hanno esaltato (beninteso, stando in italia) la figura di chavez e le doti di "grande e carismatico leader" .
Sul contenuto dell'articolo nulla che già non si sapesse direi.
angy2008
Forumer storico
il link però manda a edizione ultima del foglio non quella con l'articolo sul dopo Chavez, poco male visto che il Foglio non è un giornale che mi attizza
- Stato