un outlook sul crudo per i prossimi tempi... questo è un articolo ben fatto, a mia modesta opinione:
OPEC's Oil Market Disarray Looks Like 1990s Slump All Over Again - Bloomberg Business
OPEC's Oil Market Disarray Looks Like 1990s Slump All Over Again
OPEC has dropped any attempt at trying to fulfill its founding mission and manage the oil market, sending global benchmark Brent crude to a six-year low. For Saudi Arabia’s Ali al-Naimi, the most powerful and longest-serving of the group’s oil ministers, it may have seemed like history was repeating itself.
There are several striking parallels between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ current situation and the period from 1997 to 1999, when the group lost control of the market and oil slipped to less than $10 a barrel. While investors may wonder whether markets will follow a similar trajectory this time, it’s important to remember that OPEC emerged from the crisis to see oil prices surge all the way to almost $150 a barrel. If the parallels hold, markets could be in for a wild ride.
Big OPEC Members Boost Production
Slowdown in Asia
As OPEC lifted production in 1997, Asia headed into economic meltdown. The devaluation in July that year of the baht, the currency of Thailand, triggered a financial crisis that pushed Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand into recession. The group’s GDP contracted 8.3 percent in 1998, compared to growth of 7.5 percent on average the previous decade, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. While Asia isn’t collapsing this time around, China is experiencing the slowest expansion in 25 years.
The Indonesian Connection
Back in 1997, OPEC decided at a meeting in the Indonesian capital to raise production quotas just as the Asian economic crisis began, sending oil prices as low as $10. Veteran oil ministers still refer to the “ghost of Jakarta” that haunts their decisions. Indonesia has now returned to the center of OPEC after the nation rejoined the group last week after suspending its membership in 2009.
El Nino
The oil slump of 1997 to 1999 was compounded by El Nino, which curbed demand for heating fuel by warming the ocean surface in the equatorial Pacific and making fall and winter in the Northern hemisphere milder than normal. Fast forward to 2015 and El Nino is already comparable to the record events of those years, according to the Bureau of Meteorology of Australia. Heating oil stockpiles in the U.S. and northern Europe are high, potentially affecting overall crude demand.
Naimi vs Zanganeh
Just as they were nearly two decades ago, Saudi Arabia’s al-Naimi and Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh stand in opposition across the conference table in Vienna. Both have a long history of working together to resolve oil gluts, but the differences loom larger this time as their nations’ conflicting positions on Syria, Yemen and Iraq get in the way of the business of oil.
Political Change in Venezuela
Venezuela saw an abrupt political change in December 1998 when Hugo Chavez won presidential elections, ushering in a new era of socialism and triggering an oil u-turn. Chavez joined Saudi Arabia in cutting production, ending a decade of increases, while his policies slowly drove out many of the country’s foreign oil investors. After 16 years of uninterrupted “Chavismo,” the nation’s crude production has fallen by 10 percent and the opposition has just won its first elections, taking a majority in Congress.
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questo per quanto concerne il sentiment del mercato di adesso:
Investors brace for oil price 'lower for even longer' after OPEC | Reuters
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questo sullo stoccaggio cinese:
COLUMN-Crude markets shouldn't take China stockpiling for granted: Russell | Reuters
China will add 70 to 90 million barrels of crude to its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) next year, according to most respondents in a Reuters poll of five analysts and data collected by Reuters analysts.
The upper level of that band equates to just under 250,000 barrels per day (bpd), which doesn't sound particularly impressive when viewed in the light of China's total crude imports.
The 12-month moving average of net crude imports was 6.57 million bpd in October, while implied demand was 10.85 million bpd, according to Reuters calculations based on official data.
If 90 million barrels are added to the SPR next year, this would likely be about double the amount added this year, or about an extra 125,000 bpd.
Assuming that China's demand growth for actual consumption is around 3 percent in 2016, this implies a lift in imports of about 200,000 bpd.
Taking together the increase in expected storage flows and for expected actual consumption, and China may import an extra 325,000 bpd in 2016.
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questo sulla news della vendita di SPR da parte degli USA per finanziare progetti soprattutto edili nei futuri anni (pagine 434 e 435):
https://www.congress.gov/114/crpt/hrpt357/CRPT-114hrpt357.pdf
(a) DRAWDOWN AND SALE.—
(1) IN GENERAL.—Notwithstanding section 161 of the Energy
Policy and Conservation Act (42 U.S.C. 6241), except as
provided in subsections (b) and (c), the Secretary of Energy
shall drawdown and sell from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve—
(A) the quantity of barrels of crude oil that the Secretary
of Energy determines to be appropriate to maximize
the financial return to United States taxpayers for each of
fiscal years 2016 and 2017;
(B) 16,000,000 barrels of crude oil during fiscal year
2023;
(C) 25,000,000 barrels of crude oil during fiscal year
2024; and
(D) 25,000,000 barrels of crude oil during fiscal year
2025.
(2) DEPOSIT OF AMOUNTS RECEIVED FROM SALE.—Amounts
received from a sale under paragraph (1) shall be deposited in
the general fund of the Treasury during the fiscal year in which
the sale occurs.
(b) EMERGENCY PROTECTION.—The Secretary shall not draw
down and sell crude oil under this section in quantities that would
limit the authority to sell petroleum products under section 161(h)
of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (42 U.S.C. 6241(h)) in
the full quantity authorized by that subsection.
(c) INCREASE; LIMITATION.—
(1) INCREASE.—The Secretary of Energy may increase the
drawdown and sales under subparagraphs (A) through (I) of
subsection (a)(1) as the Secretary of Energy determines to be appropriate
to maximize the financial return to United States taxpayers.
(2) LIMITATION.—The Secretary of Energy shall not drawdown
or conduct sales of crude oil under this section after the
date on which a total of $6,200,000,000 has been deposited in
the general fund of the Treasury from sales authorized under
this section.
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questo quello che mi aspetto per lo shale nei prossimi mesi:
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