The New York Times ran a report yesterday saying that the Trump administration has developed a range of options for military action in Venezuela, including direct attacks on military units that protect President Nicolás Maduro and moves to seize control of the country’s oil fields. It reports that the White House has asked the Justice Department for additional guidance that could provide a legal basis for any military action beyond the current campaign of striking boats that the administration says are trafficking narcotics. Such guidance could include a legal rationale for targeting Maduro without creating the need for congressional authorization for the use of military force, much less a declaration of war.
The Times notes that Trump himself has been contradictory about whether or not he’s going to go to war against Venezuela. When asked by CBS News whether the United States is headed to war, Trump said on Sunday: “I doubt it. I don’t think so, but they’ve been treating us very badly, not only on drugs.” He repeated his unsupported allegation that Maduro opened his prisons and mental institutions, and sent Tren de Aragua gang members to the United States, a charge Trump has made since his campaign for the presidency last year.
Asked whether Maduro’s days as president of Venezuela were numbered, he added, “I think so, yeah.”
The Times names Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller as supporting more aggressive action against Venezuela. According to several U.S. officials, they have privately said they believe Maduro should be forced out.
Trump, on the other hand, has repeatedly expressed reservations, aides say, in part because of a fear that the operation could fail. Trump is in no rush to make a decision, according to the Times, and has repeatedly asked about what the United States could get in return, with a specific focus on extracting some of the value of Venezuela’s oil for the United States.
Although this news service cannot corroborate the specifics reported by the Times, the argument that the crisis is building towards a possible military confrontation is credible, both because of underlying policy intent in Washington and London to drive Chinese and Russian influence out of the entire region, and because of the logic of major military deployments that are already underway. For example, the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, with its four squadrons of F-18 fighter jets, which reportedly passed through the Strait of Gibraltar yesterday along with one of its escorts, the guided missile destroyer USS Bainbridge.
Trump, The Times argues, will most likely not be forced to make a decision until the Ford arrives in the Caribbean, but that will be soon enough–about one week.
The Marines aboard the USS Iwo Jima amphibious ready group, meanwhile, have been preparing for action. In a social media post, the Southern Command said Marines conducted “training operations in Puerto Rico” in support of the mission, which is focused on President Donald Trump’s “priorities to disrupt illicit drug trafficking,” reported the Latin Times. It also cited Reuters reporting that troops are rebuilding the former Roosevelt Roads naval base in Puerto Rico by clearing and repaving taxiways leading to the runway. The U.S. is also building facilities at civilian airports in Puerto Rico and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands.