dati USA in linea e disoccupazione in calo, questo dovrebbe dare il la al tapering anche se la questione fiscale rischia di spostare il tutto in avanti, vediamo alle 16 l'indice Philly FED
ecco qua la conferma di ciò che pensavo...
U.S. Stocks Drop as Economic Data Fuel Stimulus Concern
U.S. stocks declined, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the lowest level since July 10, as an unexpected drop in jobless claims and a rise in the cost of living fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus this year.
The S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 1 percent to 1,669.07 at 9:33 a.m. in New York. Treasury yields rose to the highest levels in two years.
Enlarge image U.S. Stocks Decline as Economic Data Fuel Fed Stimulus Concern
A treader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 13, 2013. Photographer: Richard Drew/AP Photo
“These data provide a reasonable assessment that a fall time period for taper is something the market should consider,” Stephen Wood, the New York-based chief market strategist who helps oversee about $237 billion at Russell Investments, said by phone. “Inflation has been coming in uncomfortably on the low side. Critical to this environment is inflation expectations.”
The consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent after a 0.5 percent gain in June, Labor Department figures showed. The advance matched the median forecast of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The core measure, which excludes food and fuel, also climbed 0.2 percent from June.
Central bank policy makers have said they will watch inflation figures closely to ensure the U.S. doesn’t slip into a prolonged period of diminishing increases, or disinflation, that would damage the recovery.
Inflation Watch
Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, who has backed the Fed’s monthly bond purchases, the stimulus program known as quantitative easing, said the current low pace of inflation wouldn’t ordinarily prompt the central bank to curtail stimulus.
“The committee would not normally remove policy accommodation in an environment where inflation is below target and is projected to remain there,” said Bullard, who votes on policy this year, in prepared remarks in Louisville, Kentucky. The Fed’s inflation goal is 2 percent.
The number of applications for unemployment insurance payments declined by 15,000 to 320,000 in the week ended Aug. 10, the fewest since October 2007, from a revised 335,000, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 335,000.
Industrial production in the U.S. was unchanged in July as a slowdown at factories overshadowed an increase in mining. Another report showed manufacturing in the New York region expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in August.
The S&P 500 has retreated 2.2 percent since closing at an all-time high on Aug. 2 amid increasing speculation the Fed will pare bond purchases this year. Central-bank stimulus helped propel the index up more than 150 percent from its low in 2009.
Economists Survey
The Fed, led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, will probably reduce its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases at its meeting on Sept. 17-18, according to 65 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg from Aug. 9 to Aug. 13. In a survey last month, half of economists predicted a reduction at next month’s meeting. The first step may be small, with monthly purchases tapered by $10 billion to a $75 billion pace, the survey showed.
“We could still be in an environment where the market is having difficulty digesting some positive data points because of the possible end result of tapering happening sooner or more forcefully than we would like,” Kristina Hooper, U.S. head of investment and client strategies at Allianz Global Investors, said in an interview from Frankfurt. Her firm oversees more than $409 billion.
Better-than-estimated corporate earnings have also helped U.S. equities rally in 2013. Of the 459 companies in the benchmark index that have reported quarterly results this period, 72 percent have exceeded analysts’ profit estimates, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
