A parte il fatto che il rating dei bond internazionali (foreign) e’ d= default . Ti stai a sbagliare con il local currency (che niente ha a che fare)
Cioè non e’ in default ma ha trasformato tutto in zero coupon? E maduro aspetta tramp per ridare gli arretrati? Situazione provvisoria? Io sto buona parte dell’anno in Repubblica Dominicana e ho parlato con diversi venezuelani che sono scappati! La situazione e’ fuori controllo, l’inflazione assurda, mancano generi di ogni tipo, il lavoro non esiste praticamente più, la delinquenza e’ altissima!!ma come fa secondo te a non essere default
Venezuela 'CCC-' Local Currency Rating Off CreditWatch Negative And Affirmed; 'SD' Foreign Currency Rating Affirmed
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RATINGS
Foreign Currency: SD/--/D
Local Currency: CCC-/Negative/C
For further details see Ratings List.
OVERVIEW
- Following Venezuela's recent presidential election, we continue to expect
erratic economic and fiscal policies fueling the economic crisis,
hyperinflation, major institutional breakdown, and severe social unrest.
- The Venezuelan government will continue its monetary financing, making
less uncertain the timing of default on its domestic debt issuances.
- We are removing our local currency sovereign credit ratings on Venezuela
from CreditWatch negative and affirming them at 'CCC-/C'. We are also
affirming our foreign currency ratings at 'SD/D'.
- The outlook on the long-term local currency sovereign credit rating is
negative, reflecting our view that the sovereign could miss a payment on
its outstanding local currency debt obligations or advance a distressed
debt exchange operation, equivalent to default.
RATING ACTION
On May 29, 2018, S&P Global Ratings removed its long- and short-term local
currency sovereign credit ratings on Venezuela from CreditWatch with negative
implications and affirmed them at 'CCC-/C'. The outlook on the long-term local
currency rating is negative. At the same time, we affirmed our 'SD/D' long-
and short-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on Venezuela. Our
transfer and convertibility assessment remains at 'CC'.
OUTLOOK
Our negative outlook reflects our opinion that there is a one-in-three chance
that Venezuela could default within the next six months on its local currency
debt obligations.
If the sovereign cures its default on the overdue foreign currency coupon
payments or the announced restructuring debt operation moves forward and is
completed, we would raise our long-term foreign currency sovereign issuer
credit and issue ratings from 'SD' and 'D', respectively, to the 'CCC'
category or 'B-'.
Rating Action: Moody's downgrades Venezuela's rating to C from Caa3; stable outlook
09 Mar 2018
New York, March 09, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the Government of Venezuela's foreign currency and local currency issuer ratings, foreign and local currency senior unsecured ratings, and foreign currency senior secured rating to C from Caa3. Concurrently, the foreign currency senior unsecured medium term note program has also been downgraded to (P)C from (P)Caa3. The outlook has been changed to stable from negative.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The key drivers underpinning the ratings downgrade are:
1) Moody's expectation that the continuing erosion of Venezuela's payment capacity will lead to heavy losses to bondholders, with ongoing defaults on interest payments on various bonds compounded by upcoming principal maturities
2) The limits on Venezuela's ability to restructure its debt posed by current US sanctions that prevent US investors from accepting new debt instruments under a potential debt exchange, which will further exacerbate losses.
In a related decision, Moody's lowered Venezuela's long-term country ceilings: the local-currency country ceilings for bonds and bank deposits to Ca from Caa2; the foreign-currency bond ceiling to Ca from Caa3; the foreign-currency bank deposit ceiling to C from Ca. The short-term foreign currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Not-Prime (NP).
Today's action signals that in Moody's view Venezuela's capacity to service its principal and interest obligations will remain severely impaired, and that losses to bondholders will be very high, most likely in excess of 65%. This view principally reflects the following drivers.
FIRST DRIVER: CONTINUING EROSION OF PAYMENT CAPACITY AND FURTHER DEFAULTS ON UPCOMING PAYMENTS WILL COMPOUND LOSSES
The ongoing decline in Venezuela's oil production is likely to be sustained and will further pressure foreign currency cash flows, with severe hard currency shortages unlikely to abate. The prospects for Venezuela's oil sector are likely to mirror the country's worsening financial situation. The country's large external funding gap and diminishing financing sources imply that upcoming debt service payments will continue to be missed. Already since November 2017 when the first defaults on market debt occurred, pending coupon payments due from both the sovereign and the state-owned oil company PDVSA have surpassed $1.7 billion.
Given that the government has so far made late payments only on PDVSA coupons that went beyond 30-day grace periods and not on sovereign coupons, it is increasingly likely that the government will not be able to meet upcoming principal payments on its market debt, the first falling in August 2018 for $1.05 billion. Even though the authorities have signaled that they plan to remediate some of the late payments on interest on both PDVSA and sovereign bonds, cash flow pressures from the lower oil production will weigh heavily on their ability to clear all arrears. We expect that losses on principal and interest will be very high and consistent with a C rating.
