Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
forse può essere utile dare una sguardo a dove è arrivato il gemello giapponese del Bund
intanto circola voce che la Bank of England taglierà i tassi
Chances for U.K. Rate Cut Increase, Minority Says (Update2)
May 26 (Bloomberg) -- A growing minority of U.K. bond dealers says the Bank of England is likely to reduce interest rates for the first time in two years on mounting evidence growth is slowing in Europe's second-largest economy, according to a Bloomberg survey.
``The market is beginning to think in terms of not if, but when the rate cut will come,'' said Richard McGuire, an economist and fixed-income analyst in London at RBC Capital, who changed his forecast and now expects a rate reduction by year-end. ``The weakening data is evidently more than a temporary phenomenon.''
Five of Britain's 16 so-called primary dealers, firms that trade with the U.K. Debt Management Office, expect a rate cut by year-end, up from three a month ago. The median forecast of dealers surveyed is for the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged at 4.75 percent this year, compared with an estimate for an increase to 5 percent a month ago.
U.K. economic growth must accelerate to meet Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown's March 16 forecast of 3 percent to 3.5 percent this year. The economy expanded 2.7 percent in the first quarter, the slowest annual pace since the final three months of 2003, as consumer spending growth slowed and reports showed prices for homes are falling after five years of gains.
Brown's prediction is ``clearly not going to happen as the data has pointed in the opposite direction,'' said Neville Hill, an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston in London who used to work at the U.K. Treasury.
Hill, who expects 2.8 percent growth this year, switched his interest-rate prediction to a quarter-point cut from last month's call for a rate increase of the same size.
`Much Weaker'
The Bank of England has left interest rates unchanged at a 3 1/2 year high for nine months amid evidence that stagnating house prices are weighing on household consumption. Retail sales grew 2.3 percent in April on an annualized basis, the slowest in two years, the government said on May 19.
With inflation below the 2 percent target set by the government in December 2003, policy makers can lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, some analysts said.
Interest-rate cuts are ``needed to offset the weakness in growth,'' said Alan Castle, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in London, another of the firms expecting a rate cut. ``The consumer and housing sectors are much weaker than they have been over the last five years.''
Bank of England policy maker Richard Lambert said consumers are ``distinctly more cautious'' in a May 24 speech in Bristol, southwest England. The central bank cut its 2005 growth forecast on May 11 and said a slowdown in spending had ``become more marked.''
Property research group Hometrack said on May 23 that house prices fell for the 11th-straight month in May.
Predicting an Increase
Accelerating inflation is still a concern to some analysts. Government figures published May 18 showed average earnings, excluding bonuses, rose 4.1 percent in the first quarter after gaining 4.3 percent in the three months through February.
Barclays Bank Plc is one of three primary dealers that still forecast a rate increase this year, down from eight in last month's survey.
``Inflation pressures are in the pipeline,'' said George Johns, an economist at Barclays Capital in London. Rising wages will help sustain spending and fuel inflation, he said.
The U.K. economy is outperforming the rest of Europe. The economy of 12 nations sharing the euro grew 1.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier.
German investor confidence unexpectedly declined to a six- month low in May, the ZEW Center for European Research in Mannheim said. Industry reports showed the nation's business confidence was the worst in 21 months, and Italian executives were more pessimistic than at any time in 3 1/2 years.
Investor Returns
Speculation the Bank of England will reduce interest rates has led to bond buying. Gilts have returned 3.2 percent so far this quarter, beating the 2.4 percent return on bonds sold by the 12 nations sharing the euro, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. data.
``We like gilts relative to bunds as we expect lower rates in the U.K.,'' said Andrei Pogudin, a fixed-income strategist in London at Deutsche Bank.
Deutsche Bank's economists, who are responsible for the firm's official forecasts, are the most bullish, forecasting the central bank to slash its benchmark rate to 4.25 percent by year- end, the same as in last month's survey.
Firms including Lehman and ICAP Plc, the world's largest interbank broker, also recommended investors buy gilts instead of European bonds, as the Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is 2.75 percentage points above the European Central Bank's interest-rate target.
The 4 3/4 percent gilt due September 2015 yielded 4.33 percent at 9:11 a.m. in London, according to Merrill Lynch & Co., near the lowest for a 10-year note since July 2003.
Ten-year U.K. gilts yield 1.04 percentage points more than similar-maturity German bunds, above the 70 basis point average over the past 10 years. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Following are the results of the survey, taken between May 13 and May 24:
Base Rate 10-Year Gilt
Bank Forecast Yield Forecast
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
ABN Amro 4.75 4.75 4.55 4.65
Barclays Capital 4.75 5 4.55 4.7
Citigroup Inc 4.75 5 4.6 5
CS First Boston Limited 4.75 4.5 4.85 4.75
Deutsche Bank AG 4.75 4.25 4.6 4.8
Dresdner Bank AG 4.75 4.5 N/A 4
Goldman Sachs 4.75 4.75 4.9 5
HSBC Bank 4.75 4.75 4.25 4.6
JP Morgan Securities 4.75 5 4.5 4.5
Lehman Brothers Inc 4.75 4.5 4.55 4.65
Merrill Lynch International 4.75 4.75 4.65 4.65
Morgan Stanley 4.75 4.75 4.8 5.4
Royal Bank of Canada 4.75 4.5 4.5 4.75
Royal Bank of Scotland 4.75 4.75 4.5 4.8
UBS AG 4.75 4.75 4.7 4.95
Winterflood Securities N/A N/A N/A N/A
Median 4.75 4.75
nella pagina dove ci sono i btp trovi il prezzo la cedola il rendimento i volumi ecc ecc e un dato "vol%".
