COMMODITIES ... solo per pochi pazzi !!!

Run the Park ha scritto:
Questa mi sembra una notizia molto interessante, chissà se Directa ha qualche idea in proposito..!

non penso run, ancora son fermi a qualche future del cme e dell'eurex
il nymex lancerà i suoi futures sul cme perchè sta subendo la dura concorrenza dell'ICE , ex IPE ( la borsa inglese dei derivati energy col Brent&co) che è passato da qualche mese dalle grida all'elettronico e ha moltiplicato vertiginosamente i volumi
 
Fleursdumal ha scritto:
non penso run, ancora son fermi a qualche future del cme e dell'eurex

Appunto per questo, sarebbe il caso ampliassero un po' l'offerta, che rispetto a quella di IW è molto molto ristretta.

IW a parer mio è pure troppo ampia... ci si perde
 
Run the Park ha scritto:
Appunto per questo, sarebbe il caso ampliassero un po' l'offerta, che rispetto a quella di IW è molto molto ristretta.

IW a parer mio è pure troppo ampia... ci si perde

beh se decidi di specializzarti sui derivati devi dare per bene almeno i mercati principali, il lato negativo di IW son le commissioni base alte , a non tutti piace negoziare
 
i veterani del mercato del rame dicono: è andato fuori controllo


Copper

Posted: Sun, 14 May 2006

[miningmx.com] -- THE rise of base metal prices, particularly copper, represented a break from the reality of the supply-demand equation, traders said who added a correction was looming.

David Threlkeld, a veteran copper trader, told British newspaper the Daily Telegraph, that the market had been "out of control" for months, allowing speculators to run roughshod over industrial producers and users.

"The London Metal Exchange has been seduced by hedge funds," which have "pushed prices to levels unsupported by fundamentals," the Telegraph said quoting Threlkeld.

"There's a vacuum below and the crash could set off a chain of margin calls running through the whole commodities sector. We've got a crisis on our hands and it is a lot bigger than copper," Threlkeld told the Telegraph.

Earlier last week, Barcays denied speculation it had lost as much as $500m speculatively trading metals. The bank would have made an announcement if that had been the case, it said.

"This is fairyland," said Richard Elman, head of the Noble Group told the Telegraph. "We have never seen such a disconnect between reality and pricing of raw materials. The long-term story is sound but the short-term froth is patently frightening," he said.

However, the newspaper said it was out-of-the-money trading positions that were to blame.

The banks have been caught out by a sudden widening in the gap between the price of three-month futures and that of long-term futures, for December 2010 or April 2011, it said.

"The dramatic differential we have seen over the past six weeks has cost them a huge amount of money," a market source told the Telegraph. "The bigger players can absorb the losses but smaller operators have nowhere to hide," it said.
 
I floor-traders del Nymex son a dir poco inc@zz@ti neri per l'accordo col Globex-CME, dato che taglierà di molto i loro privilegi a fronte dei quali pagano la loro seat nel pit anche a rate di 25000$ al mese, la fine dei taglieggiatori della fossa :D meglio tardi che mai



Nymex Pit Traders Feel Pains Of Electronic Market, IPO



NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--As the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYM.Xx) prepares to offer global, around-the-clock electronic trading and plans an initial public offering this year, pit traders who stand to lose business in the transition are feeling lost in the shuffle.



While Nymex executives express excitement about the changes - which will bring them and the exchange inestimable riches - Nymex floor traders, most of whom own little or no pre-IPO equity, are facing the possibility of financial ruin.



The disparity between the haves and have-nots at the world's largest energy marketplace is fueling tensions. Nymex floor traders - who by and large lease seats to work at the exchange - fret that they not only will hemorrhage business after the introduction of electronic trading, but also will be overlooked at the time of any IPO. Some say they deserve better, because they generate the lion's share of Nymex's fees and revenue.



In a panic, a growing number of Nymex traders, brokers and clerks have begun to pull up stakes, taking jobs that promise better long-term security. Others, who prefer to continue potentially lucrative floor trading, where market participants shout buy and sell orders, have demanded a cut of the Nymex IPO or they will walk out.



"People feel like it's the end of the world," said Ed Silliere, who trades in the Nymex natural gas pit for New York energy brokerage firm Energy Merchant Intermarket Futures LLC. He noted that the exchange's all-electronic rival, IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (ICE), has seized business from Nymex traders in recent months, even as they pay more on leases to trade at the exchange.



Silliere said many of the pit traders he knows feel betrayed, as they pay leases of as much as $25,000 a month to drum up the bulk of the business that keeps the exchange humming.



Global trends show that market participants have increasingly shunned the old-guard trading pits in favor of executing trades electronically on computer screens, but many Nymex floor traders have resisted the shift.



Job Grab



Mindful of ICE's rising threat and looking to cut a strong profile ahead of the IPO, Nymex signed an agreement last month to offer its marquee energy futures contracts on Globex, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) global electronic-trading platform, starting June 12. Globex, the busiest futures-trading platform in the world, reaches dozens of countries and territories 23-and-a-half hours a day.



The modernization of the bustling, if sheltered, New York energy market will help Nymex catch up with the growth of other markets, like ICE, which already have made the transition. But floor traders fear the move will make them bit players in a market where they were once the stars.



The story - which has been played out many times before at exchanges such as the CME and the New York Stock Exchange (NYX) - isn't a new one, and it often ends badly for market participants whose rough-and-tumble jobs don't transfer easily to office settings.



That doesn't mean some traders won't weather the storm, though. Craig Jefferies, owner of CKB Energy, a private New York recruitment firm for energy market participants, said business is booming, as an exodus of traders and brokers from the Nymex pits vie for jobs at banks and hedge funds.



"Everyone knows who the good traders are, and a few of them have gotten signing bonuses on one-year deals of $1.6 million to $1.7 million," Jefferies said, declining to give names. The typical salary is $175,000 to $250,000 a year, but varies greatly depending on a trader's experience. With the energy markets enjoying a full-scale renaissance, Jefferies expects few Nymex traders will look to retire now, but many won't ever take to the screen.



"These guys are mostly going to upstairs shops to trade the exotics," he said, referring to the complex spread and options transactions that are commonplace in the Nymex trading pits but still can't be accomplished easily in electronic markets.



IPO Tensions



Perhaps the most difficult pill to swallow for a number of Nymex traders is the potential for an IPO that directly benefits from the business they bring to the exchange daily, but leaves them out on the winnings.



While Nymex has yet to formally announce plans for an IPO, the exchange agreed to lay the groundwork for a float when it sold a 10% equity stake in March for $160 million to private-equity firm General Atlantic LLC. Under terms of the deal, a quick IPO would earn Nymex seat holders, who own the exchange, an extra $10 million.



Speaking privately, people close to Nymex said some long-time leasees had asked seat holders to give them a slice of their equity as an acknowledgment of their contribution to the exchange. So far, no seat holder has been known to have done that, they said.



"Look, 15 to 20 years ago, when we were all trading on the floor, some of us bought a seat instead of getting our families a house," said one Nymex seat holder, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Why should we share our equity with them?"



Others said leasees don't expect handouts, but would like a chance to buy in on the ground floor of any IPO. That would be extremely unusual for an exchange to offer, said Harrell Smith, manager of securities and investments at Celent, a New York financial consulting firm.



"If they do that it would be a nice gesture, but I certainly don't think they're obligated to," he said.



Source: Dow Jones Newswire
 
Fleursdumal ha scritto:
"Look, 15 to 20 years ago, when we were all trading on the floor, some of us bought a seat instead of getting our families a house," said one Nymex seat holder, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Why should we share our equity with them?"

Sarà stato italiano questo qua ? :-D
 
Just a correction, as long as hedges are not at the edge
Email Print Normal font Large font By Alan Kohler
May 17, 2006


THIS week's correction was overdue and unsurprising. The only issues of any moment are whether it's very dangerous and whether the fundamentals are still OK. And that leads to two further questions: what are the odds of a hedge fund accident; and has the US dollar's long-term decline resumed after a 12 month pause, and will it accelerate?

There is now five times as much money invested with hedge funds as there was when Long-Term Capital Management went bust in 1998 — a bit more than $US800 billion ($A1 trillion), according to Ray Dalio and Jason Rotenberg at Bridgewater Associates. In 1998, hedge fund losses totalled about 10 per cent; a similar problem this year would cost about $US80 billion.

If this was the extent of the problem and it was isolated to hedge funds, it would be rocky but not a wreck. However, if it was associated with other problems, such as a mortgage crisis in the US sparked by a housing crunch, that would be a different matter.

Between March 1 and May 11, the price of copper rose 80 per cent, which is extremely silly. It was the largest of a collection of commodity price blow-outs driven by hedge funds and speculative long-only funds panic-buying in anticipation of a big upsurge in investor demand for metals, on the back of the growth of exchange trade funds. Gold rose 40 per cent, zinc 75 per cent, nickel 45 per cent, aluminium 38 per cent and tin 20 per cent.

Presumably, these commodities, along with the prices of Australian resources stocks, are in the process of heading back to long-term trend growth, which would see copper, for example, back below $US3 a pound. The damage caused by a generalised 25 per cent or more commodity price correction would depend to some extent on the leverage of those funds caught long; and, given the secrecy in which the hedge fund industry generally is shrouded, it is impossible to know until the flag goes up.

It's worth noting that the Australian market in general, including market leader BHP Billiton, did not really follow the copper blow-off of the past month. Middle-sized miners such as Zinifex, Oxiana, Hardman and Lihir did follow, which is why they fell about 10 per cent yesterday as the hot money jammed the exits.

Anyway, the commodity price bubble has been bearing all the hallmarks of the internet bubble of the late '90s: assets that don't make profits and don't pay dividends doubling and trebling in price because of a game of "pass the parcel to a bigger fool than me". It is the sort of game that must come to an end.

Morgan Stanley's Steve Roach says the current commodity price surge is "off the charts" when compared with all those of the past. Over the past four years, the Journal of Commerce industrial gauge (which includes textiles, metals such as steel, copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, lead and tin, petroleum products, including crude oil, benzene, and ethylene, plus a miscellaneous grouping of hides, plywood, red oak flooring, rubber and tallow) has increased by 53 per cent — a sharper rise than any that occurred in any of the four previous periods of global recovery.

"Moreover, as seen in real terms — scaling the JOC gauge by the cumulative increase in the US headline CPI over the same periods — the current surge in commodity prices stands out as even more extreme. The real JOC is up 42 per cent over the past four years — nearly double the 23 per cent average gains that occurred in the two commodity booms of the 1970s and in sharp contrast with the relatively stable trends during the global growth cycles of the 1980s and 1990s."

But commodities are not the only assets that have been experiencing a bubble — the other is US dollar debt, as a result of the unsustainable American consumption binge, supported by the uneconomic purchases of US bonds by foreign central banks, especially in Asia.

A gradual decline in the US dollar has been under way since 2002, although last year it reversed because of the widening interest rate differential, as the Federal Reserve raised the US Fed funds rate at every meeting. Now this situation seems to have reversed: Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has clearly suggested that the monetary tightening cycle is coming to end in the US.

More worrying, China is also tightening monetary policy and this week has allowed its currency to rise above the important eight yuan to the dollar level. It was that event that probably sparked the panic on commodity markets.

Bridgewater likens what is happening now to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s. France first, and then other countries started to peel off the standard and started to ask the Fed for gold instead of dollars. The result was inevitable as the race for the dollar door began.

"Due to the Chinese currency policy, Asian monetary policy has basically been locked into a dollar system. No Asian country wants to lose competitiveness to China; and thus they have been forced to maintain quasi-pegs to the dollar. The official removal of the dollar system means that the Asian dollar-based monetary system is now just about to

self-destruct. Asian central banks have racked up unprecedented amounts of dollars, just as Europe and Japan took in excessive amounts of dollars … in the early '70s."

A rush for the US dollar door again would be very bearish for Wall Street and for industrial stocks in Australia. The commodities correction, on the other hand, may be just what the resources sector needed.

Alan Kohler publishes Eureka Report, a newsletter financially backed by Carnegie, Wylie & Co.

[email protected]
 
NY precious metals finish strong as dollar falls
Tue May 16, 2006 4:12 PM ET
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NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) - U.S. precious metals ended with healthy gains on Tuesday, a day after suffering stiff losses in a commodity-wide sell off, and some traders said the dollar's decline was behind gold's dramatic reversal.
Some traders said gold may have more declines in store.

"People have been quick to say, 'Oh, I'm glad to have that behind us and be back to this commodity bull roaring forward.' But, I'm not ready to buy off on that completely. Given the steepness of the decline, the market needed to take a pause, whether a pause and we're at the end or a pause before further declines," said COMMERZBANK vice president, Paul McLeod.

Some players said dollar selling after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data helped gold win back its 3.8 percent losses to finish strong on Tuesday.

By the end, gold for June delivery <GCM6> had gained $7.90 to $692.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, near the top of a $675.50-to-$693.80 range.

Spot gold <XAU=> had risen to $689.90/690.90 an ounce by late Tuesday, from $682.60/683.60 at Monday's New York close.

Tuesday's afternoon bullion fix in London reached $692.

Volumes were light, with COMEX estimating final gold volume at 63,000 lots, leading some traders to say that Tuesday's gains did not decisively determine the market's direction.

"You saw the dollar fall, if you want to point to that it's as good as anything. It's probably more a case of people stepping away from the marketplace as opposed to engaging the market based on the numbers that were issued, because it was a fairly thin market," a dealer said.

The dollar retreated on Tuesday as a softer-than-expected U.S. housing report along with subdued core producer price inflation suggested the Federal Reserve may take a breather from its two-year campaign of raising rates.

U.S. core producer prices, which exclude food and energy costs rose 0.1 percent last month, below forecasts. April housing starts came in at a 1.849 million-unit rate, well below analysts estimates of 1.95 million annual units.

"Both of these numbers reinforce the view that the Federal Reserve can take a conditional pause in June, and that is dollar negative," said Alex Beuzelin, analyst at Ruesch International in Washington


A weaker dollar offers an advantage to overseas investors of dollar-denominated assets like gold and silver.

Some traders noted that gold went limit down on the Tokyo commodities exchange overnight. If it does so again on Tuesday it may be a strong signal for further corrective selling. If not, gold may trade sideways and build a base on the charts.

"We've seen this pattern consistently over the last 18 months in gold, where we have a run up, a correction and then a base building period. Possibly we're going to play that out again, but I think there's room for a wider correction without any damage to the long-term bull trend," said McLeod.

Silver climbed to a strong close after settling previously with 6.3 percent losses. Platinum and palladium also gained after shedding 2.6 and 5.9 percent, respectively, on Monday.

COMEX July silver futures <SIN6> were up 20.5 cents at $13.54 an ounce by the close, after sliding to a 2-1/2-week low at $12.82. The session high was $13.57.

Spot silver <XAG=> climbed over 10 cents to $13.59/13.69 an ounce in New York. The London fix was at $13.22.

NYMEX July platinum <PLN6> ended $18.10 higher at $1,302.90 an ounce, after falling as low as $1,265. On Friday, however, it soared to its highest level ever at $1,340.

Spot platinum <XPT=> was quoted at $1,295/1,303 an ounce.

NYMEX June palladium <PAM6> gained $2.25 to $377 an ounce by the end, short of $409 reached on Friday, its highest level in four years. Spot palladium <XPD=> was $369/374 by the end.
 
UPDATE 7-Metals to stay volatile in near term
Tue May 16, 2006 3:29 PM ET
(Updates with New York closing prices)

By Nick Trevethan

FACT BOX



LONDON, May 16 (Reuters) - London copper ended slightly higher in volatile trading on Tuesday after tumbling nearly 9 percent on Monday, and analysts said uncertainty would be the key near-term feature of the market.

"Prices have bounced off their lows. There haven't been any specific changes in metals fundamentals, but a 23 percent rise at the start of the month was a little aggressive so a correction comes as no surprise," Barclays Capital analyst Ingrid Sternby said.

"Fundamentals are still constructive and I remain a buyer on any weakness. I don't see any reason for prices to calm down," she added.

LME copper for delivery in three months ranged between $7,750 and $8,325 a tonne on Tuesday. It closed at the top of that range, up from $8,190 on Monday. Earlier that day, copper slumped 8.8 percent to $7,700.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, copper for July delivery <HGN6> settled up 9.55 cents, or 2.5 percent, at $3.8420 a lb, just off the upper end of its $3.55-$3.8450 trading range.

"I think that prices will remain very volatile in the near term. We saw a pretty brutal move lower early today and then we rallied," an LME trader said.

"But there is a degree of sense coming back into the market and if stability emerges prices may head higher again," he said.

Other base and precious metals were mostly higher, bouncing off early lows, with zinc <MZN3> up $60 at $3,475, aluminium <MAL3> $18 higher at $2,970 and gold <XAU=> up over $4 at $687.00/688.00 a troy ounce.

Equity markets pared losses with the FSTE 100 <.FTSE> little changed by 1600 GMT.

But miners weighed, with Antofagasta (ANTO.L: Quote, Profile, Research), Xstrata (XTA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and Anglo American (AAL.L: Quote, Profile, Research) all down by between 2 percent and nearly 5 percent. [ID:nIRE629871]

CONSOLIDATION

At their peak, copper <MCU3> and zinc <MZN3> futures were nearly double their levels at the beginning of the year as investors bought back positions to mitigate losses after betting prices would fall, known as going short.

Basemetals.com analyst William Adams said these shorts might have managed to close out positions in some kind of off-market deal, which would reduce the likelihood of further sharp price rises.

UBS analyst Robin Bhar said the market could be headed for a much-needed period of consolidation, before heading higher.

"My gut feeling is that we will stabilize and we could see a period of quiet consolidation relative to the frenzied trading in recent days," he said.

"But when the market does break out, it will probably be to the upside, especially if stocks continue to decline."

MARGINS SOAR AGAIN

LCH.Clearnet, which clears London Metal Exchange (LME) contracts, increased margins sharply for the second time in two weeks, reflecting rising volatility and the increased risk of default. [ID:nL16297996]

"Given the extreme volatility and lack of liquidity in the copper and zinc markets exhibited in recent days, and consequent likelihood of defaults on both brokers and the clearing house, the rise in margins was inevitable," Sempra Metals economist John Kemp said in a note.

"The base metal market is no longer functioning effectively," he said.

Initial margins are funds or credit lines that an investor is required to set up, and represent the largest likely worst-case and/or two-day move in a contract's price.

The margins act as security in case of default and mitigate the risk borne by the clearing house, which operates as counterparty to both sides of a trade. (Additional reporting by Lucy Hornby in Shanghai, Jae Hur in Singapore, and Chris Kelly in New York)

© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
 

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