COMMODITIES ... solo per pochi pazzi !!!
- Creatore Discussione ditropan
- Data di Inizio
giomf
Forumer storico
Qualche anima buona mi saprebbe dire se e come si fa a far scomparire qui . .
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/gold.php . .quel riquadro grigio che copre le ultime candele . . ?
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/gold.php . .quel riquadro grigio che copre le ultime candele . . ?
giomf
Forumer storico
Qualche anima buona mi saprebbe dire se e come si fa a far scomparire qui . .
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/gold.php . .quel riquadro grigio che copre le ultime candele . . ?
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/gold.php . .quel riquadro grigio che copre le ultime candele . . ?
ditropan
Forumer storico
Buongiorno ...
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Mais - 20-05-2006 - ore 09:00
Un forte calo anche per il mais ieri sulla scia delle altre commodity. Il meteo che favorisce lo sviluppo della nuova coltivazione hanno spinto i fondi di liquidare circa 7.000 contratti secondo le stime di un operatore.
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... il tempo contina ad essere favorevole ed i fondi liquidano pure oggi .... corn a -1,8% ... lo spread W/C questa mattina si è portato a :
w = 440,5
c = 272,25
W/C = 440,5 - 272,25 = 168,25
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Mais - 20-05-2006 - ore 09:00
Un forte calo anche per il mais ieri sulla scia delle altre commodity. Il meteo che favorisce lo sviluppo della nuova coltivazione hanno spinto i fondi di liquidare circa 7.000 contratti secondo le stime di un operatore.
*******************************************************************
... il tempo contina ad essere favorevole ed i fondi liquidano pure oggi .... corn a -1,8% ... lo spread W/C questa mattina si è portato a :
w = 440,5
c = 272,25
W/C = 440,5 - 272,25 = 168,25
ditropan
Forumer storico
trippa ha scritto:Andrea, grazie per la risposta.
A proposito dello spread Wheat-Corn, considerando il continuo, sul grafico mensile vedo che siamo quasi sui massimi trentennali
se consideri il contratto scadenza dicembre (... che poi è dove dovresti andare ad operare) allora con stamane siamo già sui massimi ... adesso è a 179 sull elettronico.
Rimane sempre in piedi il discorso dell anomalia del 1996 in cui tale spread andò fino a 290 (a causa dello spike sui grains ed in particolar modo del wheat).
Bisogna però considerare che lo spread crebbe già l'anno precedente (1995) a causa probabilmente della maggior carenza di wheat, oscillò e rimase alto (190-175) fino a novembre 1995 ... per poi farsi la sparata a 290 nell aprile 1996.
Di prò ci sono 2 fattori :
- siamo solo al primo anno di (possibile) carenza di wheat (dico possibile poichè è ancora tutto da verificare in fase di raccolto a luglio).
- normalmente queste accelerazioni esagerate (tipo 290) si fanno i primi mesi dell'anno (tra metà febbraio e fine aprile) ... invece non succedono praticamente mai dopo la fine di maggio-giugno, per via del raccolto del wheat.
... stiamo a vedere che succede.
I grafi leggili al contrario ... sono rappresentati come corn-wheat invece di wheat-corn .....
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Ottimi grafici ditro.
Di seguito riporto una eccelente analisi sulla situescion attuale del wheat
May 22, 2006
Wheat Holding well on Breaks
The wheat complex surged to nine year highs last week on continued concerns about the hard red winter wheat crop in the US plains. While harvest is already moving quickly through the southern plains, there was still some hope that the crop in the central plains could recover if weather improved. But, the weather showed no signs of improving, with hot and dry weather continuing to take its toll on a quickly maturing wheat crop and prices surged on fundamental and technical buying.
The idea that harvest pressure would ultimately override remaining bullishness and rumors of east coast feed manufacturers importing wheat from Germany sent the market sharply lower on Friday, only to find plenty of buying on the break. Funds have been heavily long with record open interest in wheat and have consistently stepped up to defend their position on the pullbacks.
The fundamentals remain very positive; even as we near the end of the growing season, we’ll still have a bullish situation as we transition to a demand market after harvest. What harvest pressure we do get could well be erased in the fall during a normal seasonal rally, especially with supplies still needing to be rationed. Of course, if the weather turns poor for spring wheat, or corn and beans, all grains will see another round of buying.
Export sales have remained respectable despite the sharply higher prices buyers have to pay. While some buyers are able to blend the high priced US quality wheat with lower quality imports, others simply have to bite the bullet and pay the current rates. The world will see a significant drop in ending stocks for this new marketing year, and most of that comes from hard red winter, where the US will see historic low ending stocks. The rationing process is still in effect and exports will be much lower for hard red winters as prices move to protect domestic supplies.
Harvest reports confirm what we’ve been expecting, very low yields and light test weights, with estimates from 5 – 20 bushels/acre in TX and OK, test weights of around 55 # very common. Reports of test cutting in southern KS suggest that this harvest will be over almost as quickly as it started. With production so small this year and old crop stocks already very tight, ‘harvest pressure’ could be a mute point.
It’s very difficult to gauge where wheat prices can go from here. We are at major resistance points on the long term charts. With the seasonal tendency to move lower this time of year, the odds are that we’ll falter at these price levels. However, if prices continue to move higher, then the momentum could gain more strength and we’d be looking at the 1996 price levels for resistance levels.
We still don’t have a definitive top formation, so we do have to be careful about selling aggressively into this market, because a higher move from here could create major short covering, which could create huge buying power on its own. For hedgers, step lightly into this and focus on the ’07 and ’08 crop more so at this point, which will carry less upside risk. For the 2006 crop, consider just buying puts at this point to protect the downside, and not take on the upside risk.
Di seguito riporto una eccelente analisi sulla situescion attuale del wheat
May 22, 2006
Wheat Holding well on Breaks
The wheat complex surged to nine year highs last week on continued concerns about the hard red winter wheat crop in the US plains. While harvest is already moving quickly through the southern plains, there was still some hope that the crop in the central plains could recover if weather improved. But, the weather showed no signs of improving, with hot and dry weather continuing to take its toll on a quickly maturing wheat crop and prices surged on fundamental and technical buying.
The idea that harvest pressure would ultimately override remaining bullishness and rumors of east coast feed manufacturers importing wheat from Germany sent the market sharply lower on Friday, only to find plenty of buying on the break. Funds have been heavily long with record open interest in wheat and have consistently stepped up to defend their position on the pullbacks.
The fundamentals remain very positive; even as we near the end of the growing season, we’ll still have a bullish situation as we transition to a demand market after harvest. What harvest pressure we do get could well be erased in the fall during a normal seasonal rally, especially with supplies still needing to be rationed. Of course, if the weather turns poor for spring wheat, or corn and beans, all grains will see another round of buying.
Export sales have remained respectable despite the sharply higher prices buyers have to pay. While some buyers are able to blend the high priced US quality wheat with lower quality imports, others simply have to bite the bullet and pay the current rates. The world will see a significant drop in ending stocks for this new marketing year, and most of that comes from hard red winter, where the US will see historic low ending stocks. The rationing process is still in effect and exports will be much lower for hard red winters as prices move to protect domestic supplies.
Harvest reports confirm what we’ve been expecting, very low yields and light test weights, with estimates from 5 – 20 bushels/acre in TX and OK, test weights of around 55 # very common. Reports of test cutting in southern KS suggest that this harvest will be over almost as quickly as it started. With production so small this year and old crop stocks already very tight, ‘harvest pressure’ could be a mute point.
It’s very difficult to gauge where wheat prices can go from here. We are at major resistance points on the long term charts. With the seasonal tendency to move lower this time of year, the odds are that we’ll falter at these price levels. However, if prices continue to move higher, then the momentum could gain more strength and we’d be looking at the 1996 price levels for resistance levels.
We still don’t have a definitive top formation, so we do have to be careful about selling aggressively into this market, because a higher move from here could create major short covering, which could create huge buying power on its own. For hedgers, step lightly into this and focus on the ’07 and ’08 crop more so at this point, which will carry less upside risk. For the 2006 crop, consider just buying puts at this point to protect the downside, and not take on the upside risk.
ditropan
Forumer storico
skipper1971 ha scritto:ditroooooo
C-W (Z6) saltato a 148....diconsi centoquarantottooooOOOO
intanto per non saper leggere nè scrivere ne ho purtà a cà un altro
godiamo !!!
Vide 'o mare quant'è bello!
Spira tantu sentimento.
Comme tu a chi tiene mente
Ca scetato 'o faje sunnà.
...
Ma nun me lassà
Nun darme stu turmiento!
Torna a centoventoooo!!!!
...io invece DURO e PURO !!!
.... comunque oggi credo che chiuderò gli 8 extrashort sul wheat (... sempre che me ne diano la possibilità), e poi con il PDC raggiunto che mi vengano a prendere se ne hanno il coraggio !!!
P.S. : Per me spread W-C solo in rapporto 1:1 dopo maggio ... voglio fare solo uno spread di prezzi e non anche di pesi.
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