Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Dall'High Yield al Flight to Quality ... (Vol. IV): Cash is King

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Il mercato della commercial paper: il crollo dell'agosto 2007 ha preannunciato la crisi ... era accaduto lo stesso a fine 2001, con la sola differenza che allora a cadere era stato soprattutto il mercato della commercial paper degli emittenti non finanziari, a differenza di quanto visto di recente...

I più giovani facciano un nodo al fazzoletto, che noi vecchi andiamo a rincoglionirci e fra x anni, la prossima volta, potremmo avere nuovamente dimenticato... :lol:

Per aiutare, un estratto da un report del marzo 2002 di Diane Vazza, oggi fra i capoanalisti di S&P...

U.S. Commercial Paper: The Shrunken Market
Publication date: 11-Mar-02, 12:36:19 EST


During the past 12 months, the U.S. nonfinancial commercial paper market has seen the sharpest percentage contraction in outstandings in more than 40 years. Three major causes are:

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
  • Reduced funding needs in the economic downturn,
  • Debt restructuring in a flat yield curve and low-rate environment, and
  • Heightened commercial paper investor concern about credit quality during a period of credit stress, as reflected in downgrades.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As a result, many issuers that had previously financed in the unsecured commercial paper market turned to the corporate bond market, asset-backed commercial paper conduits, and bank loans. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Size[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Currently, there is $1.4 trillion outstanding within the U.S. commercial paper market, issued by more than 1,700 companies. Nonfinancial commercial paper outstanding peaked in the fourth-quarter 2000, at a record high of $351 billion. Averaging 24% of the market during the past 10 years, nonfinancial commercial paper outstanding now represents 15% of the U.S. market, with $203 billion outstanding. Financial commercial paper outstanding averaged 76% during the past 10 years and currently represents 85% of the market at $1.2 trillion. [/FONT]

Commercial paper 2002.JPG
 
E' tornata l'ora di investire nei bond HY, oppure il rendimento garantito dalla risalita dei corsi di questi bond a gennaio non è destinato a durare ?

La domanda si impone, ma la risposta è tutt'altro che scontata anche se a darla sono esperti del settore corporate bond quali i membri della International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers.

Sentiti dalla Reuters, si sono mostrati concordi in larga maggioranza soltanto nel ritenere che i rendimenti andranno a ridursi nei prossimi mesi per i bond IG del corporate USA, mentre per l'HY USA i pareri sono molto divergenti (34% crede che i rendimenti si ridurranno, 38% che si amplieranno, il resto che resteranno grosso modo dove sono).

Per il corporate IG europeo le percentuali sono 36% per la riduzione, 27% per l'ampliamento ed il resto per la stabilità; per l'HY europeo 23% per la riduzione, 34% per l'ampliamento, il resto per la stabilità.

Corporate bonds may gain; junk outlook mixed-Survey

Thu Jan 22, 2009 2:12pm EST

NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Portfolio managers expect credit spreads will tighten over the next three months for U.S. investment-grade credit, but the picture is murkier for high-yield bonds, a new survey showed on Thursday.

A fourth quarter survey of members of the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers said most see yield spreads narrowing for the high-grade credit asset class.

For high-yield credits, 34 percent of respondents believe U.S. high yield spreads will narrow, while 38 percent believe they will widen. About 28 percent say they will remain unchanged.

The IACPM is an industry association with 85 member institutions located in 16 countries.

"Most survey respondents clearly believe the outlook for investment-grade debt will improve in terms of credit spreads," said Som-lok Leung, executive director of the IACPM.

U.S. investment-grade corporate bond spreads widened to a record 656 basis points over Treasuries on Dec. 5, before rallying to about 557 basis points through Wednesday, according to Merrill Lynch & Co data.
Survey respondents were somewhat more pessimistic about European debt versus the United States.

While 36 percent of respondents say they expect spreads to tighten for European investment-grade debt, 38 percent expect no change and 27 percent forecast wider spreads. In terms of European high-yield debt, 23 percent of respondents expect narrower spreads, while 43 percent look for no change and 34 percent forecast wider spreads. (Reporting by Walden Siew; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)

 
Intanto gli emittenti HY USA di maggiore qualità approfittano di questo momento di relativa quiete sul mercato dei capitali per carcare di approvvigionarsi di capitali o di rifinanziarsi ad interessi un po' più contenuti di quelli corrisposti solo poche settimane fa.

Ad esempio El Paso, il solo emittente HY USA a collocare bond sul mercato a dicembre, è tornato con una nuova emissione da 500 mln $ pagando un rendimento a scadenza di poco superiore al 10%, contro più del 15% che aveva dovuto pagare due mesi fa.

In ogni caso, le emissioni HY di gennaio 2009 sono risultate inferiori del 40% a quelle di 1 anno prima e gli emittenti di qualità modesta restano esclusi dal mercato.

I deals si concentrano nei comparti più difensivi e sugli emittenti a maggiore consistenza patrimoniale, idonei nel worst case scenario a garantire aspettative di recovery più elevate.

Il deal di maggiori dimensioni in gennaio, con emissioni per 1 mld $, è quello messo a segno da Chesapeake Energy, un importante player del comparto USA dell'oil & gas.

E tuttavia, come correttamente notato in questo commento dell'AP, sarà il default rate a dettare il futuro andamento del mercato HY. E con un default rate attorno al 4%, ma atteso almeno al 12% entro fine anno, è ben probabile (e questa è anche la mia opinione) che basti poco a riportare il mercato obbligazionario ad una chiusura pressoché completa nei confronti degli emittenti HY.

Investors starting to snap up to riskier bonds

By STEPHEN BERNARD – 20 hours ago

NEW YORK (AP) — It might take discounted prices and near double-digit interest rates, but companies are finding buyers for their junk bonds.

For the first time in months, companies with poor credit ratings are going into the debt markets and getting a warm reception. Junk bond issuers in the U.S. raised $4.3 billion in January, according to Dealogic, a financial research firm. That was the largest total monthly issuance since June, and the eight deals in January were more than the previous four months combined.

This week, natural gas producer El Paso Corp. priced a $500 million offering at a discount of 95.54 cents on the dollar with an interest rate of 8.25 percent and a yield of 9.125 percent. In the final months of 2008, El Paso was about the only junk bond issuer to find buyers, and it had to offer a yield of 15.25 percent to get a deal done.

The pickup in activity is heartening after the market for junk bonds — also known as high-yield, speculative- or non-investment grade bonds — came to a standstill during the credit crisis last fall. Still, analysts caution it is far from strong.

"By historic terms, (volume) remains rather anemic," said Diane Vazza, head of global fixed income research for Standard & Poor's.

Issuance was still 40 percent short of January 2008's total, and the companies selling the bonds were able to find buyers because they are on firm financial footing.

"Most of the companies able to issue successfully are asset rich, well known to investors and generally stronger credit quality," said Eric Tutterow, managing director of leveraged finance at Fitch Ratings.
Companies with the worst ratings that need to raise debt to stay in business are not in the market right now, Tutterow said.

Investment appetite is also concentrated in just a few industries, mainly energy and telecommunications. They accounted for all but one of the eight high-yield deals in January.

The largest deal last month was completed by Chesapeake Energy Corp. The natural gas producer raised $1 billion on Jan. 28. The smallest deal was for $225 million, and completed by Inergy Holdings LP, also an oil and gas firm.

Chris Garman, president of Garman Research, said it is no surprise those industries would see increased activity as the market starts to return.
"Typically when the door reopens after a fairly awful (period), it tends to be a higher quality issue with greater recoverable assets," Garman said. "Energy and telecom would certainly fit that bill."

Companies in other industries have had a harder time. Landry's Restaurants Inc., a restaurant chain operator, said Thursday it priced an offering of $295.5 million in bonds at a rate of 14 percent and a discount of 88 cents on the dollar, for a yield of just over 20 percent. Landry's had worked since the middle of January to issue the bonds.

Tutterow said the higher price shows that investors are more nervous about some industries and companies with lower credit ratings. Landry's is rated "B" by Standard & Poor's, compared to El Paso, which is three notches higher at "BB."

"Let's face it, family-style restaurants right now are having a difficult time in this recession, and are a more risky proposition than, say, a company that has oil reserves," Tutterow said.

Garman noted that as the market opens up further, investors will likely migrate down the credit scale and buy debt from lower-rated companies.
"There does seem to be some willingness to take risk on corporate bond issues," Garman said.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, which has sent the benchmark federal funds rate to almost zero percent, is also likely to boost demand for junk bonds because of the higher yields on speculative-grade debt, Garman said. He added that there is about a one-year lag time from when the Fed slashes rates before improvement is seen in the high-yield sector.

A company with credit ratings below "BBB-" from Fitch and Standard & Poor's or below "Baa3" from Moody's Investors Service is considered to have speculative-grade credit. As such, the cost of raising new capital is much higher than for investment-grade issuers. It is also more difficult for corporations with speculative-grade ratings to complete deals — especially in the midst of the ongoing credit crisis — because the likelihood of default is much higher.

Analysts say that with the Fed having slashed rates as low as they can go, default rates on high-yield bonds will be the key to a sustained improvement in the market. If defaults rise more than expected or remain elevated for a long period of time, it might start to push investors away from the high-yield market again, Garman said.

Like El Paso, issuers are having to sweeten their deals in a recessionary market, including selling the bonds at a discount. That effectively drives up yields as issuers have to repay the interest and the difference between the sale price and face value of the bonds.

For example, while the face value of a bond might be $100, a company might have to sell it for $96 to find an investor, but the bond is still issued at a value of $100. As the bond is repaid, investors receive yearly interest based on a $100 value, and will also receive the extra $4 of face value that it did not have to pay upfront.

Garman did say interest rates on the bonds are lower than in past recessions, but the discounted initial sale price makes the yield higher than during previous cycles.

Credit spreads — which measure the difference in yield between corporate bonds and risk-free Treasury bonds of similar maturities — for high-yield bonds still remain extremely high, Vazza said, although they have shrunk slightly from a month ago.

The current spread between the yield on the speculative-grade bonds and Treasury bonds, which are considered the safest form of investment, is about 14.24 percentage points. Spreads were at 16.12 percentage points between high-yield bonds and Treasurys in early January, but are still far from the 5.76 percentage point spread seen a year ago, Vazza said.
Vazza said spreads will remain elevated. That means it will remain expensive for companies with poor ratings to issue new bonds.
 
Ultima modifica:
Intanto a gennaio 2009 il default rate sui bond HY USA sale al 5%, portandosi così al di sopra della media storica del 4,3% per la prima volta dal termine della precedente stagione dei default, nel 2003.

Entro fine anno, per S&P, si dovrebbe salire al 13,9%, con possibilità di toccare il 18,5% in caso di peggioramento della congiuntura economica superiore al previsto.

U.S. junk bond defaults rise to nearly 5 pct -S&P

javascript:commonPopup('http://lice...marketsNewsUS', 580, 635, 1, 'purchasePopup')
NEW YORK, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. junk bond default rate rose to 4.96 percent in January, topping its long-term average for the first time in more than four years as the deepening recession took a toll, Standard & Poor's said on Wednesday.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKN0430307820090204
 
Segnalo che l'asta sui CDS per i bond di LyondellBasell segnala un possibile recovery pari al 15,5%.

Lyondell default swaps worth 15.5 pct in auction

Tue Feb 3, 2009 4:07pm EST

NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Sellers of protection on Lyondell Chemical Co's bonds will need to make payments of 84.5 percent of the insurance they sold, based on the results of an auction on Tuesday published by auction administrators Creditex and Markit.

The auction to determine the value of Lyondell's credit default swaps indicated the contracts were worth 15.5 cents on the dollar, Creditex and Markit said. CDS on Lyondell's loans were worth 20.75 cents on the dollar.
Payments were triggered on the company's swaps after the company and its Equistar Chemicals and Millennium subsidiaries filed for bankruptcy protection on Jan. 6.

CDS on Equistar's debt were worth 27.5 cents in the auction and Millennium's swaps settled at 7.125 cents, Creditex and Markit said. (Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Dan Grebler)
 
Vedrai che faremo veloce: le banche credo faranno quanto possibile affinché i default avvengano dopo le chiusure trimestrali. Prossima raffica ad aprile, suppongo... :rolleyes:

infatti.
E' necessario focalizzarsi sulle trimestrali del 1° quarto, oltre che per gli emittenti HY (ai quali le banche potrebbero tagliare i viveri) anche per gli emittenti IG - per i quali - presentare dati cattivi o molto al di sotto delle stime - potrebbe significare rating actions al ribasso e conseguente rialzo dei costi di rifinanziamento... quindi ribasso dei corsi dei bond quotati ...insomma un po' di maretta sui mercati obbligazionari.
In questi ultimi mesi ...la calma e il sereno vi hanno regnato - grazie al ribasso dei tassi - e la compressione dei rendimenti a scadenza ne è la prova.
Il vento cambierà ?
 
Corporate bonds outlook da parte di Jyske ... alcune interessanti considerazioni, che può valere la pena di leggere.

NON così, IMHO, i consigli per gli acquisti.

Lì è indispensabile adottare molta più cautela IMHO... sempre ammesso e non concesso che loro siano in buona fede... ;)
 

Allegati

Corporate bonds outlook da parte di Jyske ... alcune interessanti considerazioni, che può valere la pena di leggere.

NON così, IMHO, i consigli per gli acquisti.

Lì è indispensabile adottare molta più cautela IMHO... sempre ammesso e non concesso che loro siano in buona fede... ;)

Buona fede ? Non mi ricordare i cazzari del nord sono loro che mi hanno consigliato Ineos accidenti a me e a loro:clava:
Questa e' la lista delle loro raccomandazioni attuali.

E' da notare che non e' rimasto quasi niente dei titoli sui quali erano bullish appena pochi mesi fa', tutti spariti come i soldi di chi gli ha dato retta.

Selected recommendations

TDC €8.25% 2016 B1/B+ 84.50 11.45% B01272
Agrokor €7% 2011 B2/B 74.50 19.66% B02416
SIG €8% 2016 B2/B+ 70.50 14.38% B03553
SIG €9.5% 2017 B3/B- 46.50 25.05% B02612
Wind €9.75% 2015 B2/BB- 90.00 11.93% B00824
UnityMedia €8.75% 2015 Caa1/B- 88.50 11.44% B03047
UnityMedia €10.125% 2015 Caa1/B- 95.50 11.17% B01401
Eircom €-Floater 2016 B3/B- 47.50 21.05% B01553
Rexam €6.75% 2067 Ba2/BB+ 62.25 14.90% B02811
Fresenius €8.75% 2015 Ba1/BB 105.75 7.60% B04096
Fresenius $9% 2015 Ba1/BB 106.00 7.98% B04097
CWLN £8.75% 2012 B1/BB- 97.00 9.77% B70536
 
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