m.m.f
Forumer storico
...come da te auspicato iniziano a intravedersi occasioni per i bondholder
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato / 2
...come da te auspicato iniziano a intravedersi occasioni per i bondholder
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
JPM
German election
How a new government is formed
The process of forming a new government can be divided into a few distinct phases. First, in the days after the election, the parties elect new parliamentary leaders, who manage their efforts in the Bundestag. Second, after this, the largest party, currently the CDU/CSU, invites potential coalition partners for exploratory talks to establish whether there is scope for cooperation. Third, official coalition talks commence after party leaderships have decided, which coalition to pursue. Fourth, once a coalition treaty is signed (some parties may need to put this to a vote of party members). Fifth, the Chancellor is elected by the Bundestag once the coalition treaty has been fully accepted by all parties. At this point, the Cabinet is also announced. Sixth, at the end of the process, the new government makes a policy declaration to the Bundestag. Aside from this entire process, it is worth noting that the new Bundestag will need to have a first meeting by 24 October, but that the current CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government will remain in place until the new Chancellor is elected.
There is no set time period for each of these phases. The first phase of electing parliamentary leaders has been partially completed although there is still some speculation of broader leadership changes; for example, in the CSU. The second phase of exploratory talks has yet to start, but the state election in Niedersachsen (Lower Saxony) on 15 October is already set to slow this down as parties are reluctant to reveal policy areas they are willing to compromise on in a coalition. Otherwise, parties would be watering down their policy platforms ahead of the state election. The CSU’s party conference in mid-November may also slow some aspects of the formal talks.
After the state election, the phase of exploratory talks may potentially be quite short, given that there is only one viable coalition at this point (ie, a Jamaica coalition), following the SPD’s decision to go into opposition. In 2013, it took 31 days to get to this stage (see table), but that was partly because the CDU/CSU was holding exploratory talks with both the SPD and the Greens. After this, in 2013, coalition talks took another 35 days, followed by a 20-day period in which the SPD conducted a vote among party members on the coalition’s 134-page polity treaty. The FDP and Greens have both already said that they would want to do the same. Overall, it took 86 days after the last election for the Chancellor and cabinet to be elected.
Talks to form a three-way coalition between the CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Greens are likely to be very difficult. One complicating factor is the increasing disagreement between the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, which means that in reality a four-way coalition will need to be formed. Our expectation is that this will be successful in the end, but that it may not conclude before the end of this year. If it fails, then the SPD may come back into the picture as a way of avoiding new elections, further prolonging the process.
German election
How a new government is formed
The process of forming a new government can be divided into a few distinct phases. First, in the days after the election, the parties elect new parliamentary leaders, who manage their efforts in the Bundestag. Second, after this, the largest party, currently the CDU/CSU, invites potential coalition partners for exploratory talks to establish whether there is scope for cooperation. Third, official coalition talks commence after party leaderships have decided, which coalition to pursue. Fourth, once a coalition treaty is signed (some parties may need to put this to a vote of party members). Fifth, the Chancellor is elected by the Bundestag once the coalition treaty has been fully accepted by all parties. At this point, the Cabinet is also announced. Sixth, at the end of the process, the new government makes a policy declaration to the Bundestag. Aside from this entire process, it is worth noting that the new Bundestag will need to have a first meeting by 24 October, but that the current CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government will remain in place until the new Chancellor is elected.
There is no set time period for each of these phases. The first phase of electing parliamentary leaders has been partially completed although there is still some speculation of broader leadership changes; for example, in the CSU. The second phase of exploratory talks has yet to start, but the state election in Niedersachsen (Lower Saxony) on 15 October is already set to slow this down as parties are reluctant to reveal policy areas they are willing to compromise on in a coalition. Otherwise, parties would be watering down their policy platforms ahead of the state election. The CSU’s party conference in mid-November may also slow some aspects of the formal talks.
After the state election, the phase of exploratory talks may potentially be quite short, given that there is only one viable coalition at this point (ie, a Jamaica coalition), following the SPD’s decision to go into opposition. In 2013, it took 31 days to get to this stage (see table), but that was partly because the CDU/CSU was holding exploratory talks with both the SPD and the Greens. After this, in 2013, coalition talks took another 35 days, followed by a 20-day period in which the SPD conducted a vote among party members on the coalition’s 134-page polity treaty. The FDP and Greens have both already said that they would want to do the same. Overall, it took 86 days after the last election for the Chancellor and cabinet to be elected.
Talks to form a three-way coalition between the CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Greens are likely to be very difficult. One complicating factor is the increasing disagreement between the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, which means that in reality a four-way coalition will need to be formed. Our expectation is that this will be successful in the end, but that it may not conclude before the end of this year. If it fails, then the SPD may come back into the picture as a way of avoiding new elections, further prolonging the process.
m.m.f
Forumer storico
Grecia: vicepremier Dragasakis, investimento in ex aeroporto Elliniko proseguirà come previsto (2)
Atene, 27 set 14:52 - (Agenzia Nova) - E' previsto per oggi un nuovo incontro del Consiglio archeologico (Kas) presso il ministero della Cultura della Grecia per determinare se alcune parti dell'ex aeroporto di Elliniko, a sud di Atene, saranno dichiarate di interesse archeologico. Due precedenti incontri si sono conclusi senza il raggiungimento di una decisione in materia. L'incertezza riguardo questa decisione riguarda l'intero piano strategico per il rilancio dell'area di Elliniko, con una decisione a tutela dell'interesse archeologico che potrebbe causare problemi al maxi investimento di un consorzio arabo, cinese e greco per riconvertire l'ex aeroporto internazionale in una zona di resort e centri commerciali. Gli esperti di mercato concordano sul fatto che un'eventuale decisione del Kas di dichiarare l'area di interesse archeologico chiuderebbe le porte all'investimento del progetto lanciato dalle precedenti amministrazioni, ma non ancora realizzato a causa di problemi e ritardi vari. (Gra)
© Agenzia Nova - Riproduzione riservata
Atene, 27 set 14:52 - (Agenzia Nova) - E' previsto per oggi un nuovo incontro del Consiglio archeologico (Kas) presso il ministero della Cultura della Grecia per determinare se alcune parti dell'ex aeroporto di Elliniko, a sud di Atene, saranno dichiarate di interesse archeologico. Due precedenti incontri si sono conclusi senza il raggiungimento di una decisione in materia. L'incertezza riguardo questa decisione riguarda l'intero piano strategico per il rilancio dell'area di Elliniko, con una decisione a tutela dell'interesse archeologico che potrebbe causare problemi al maxi investimento di un consorzio arabo, cinese e greco per riconvertire l'ex aeroporto internazionale in una zona di resort e centri commerciali. Gli esperti di mercato concordano sul fatto che un'eventuale decisione del Kas di dichiarare l'area di interesse archeologico chiuderebbe le porte all'investimento del progetto lanciato dalle precedenti amministrazioni, ma non ancora realizzato a causa di problemi e ritardi vari. (Gra)
© Agenzia Nova - Riproduzione riservata
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
Diciamo che si prendono il loro tempo.
m.m.f
Forumer storico
Tutti quanti troveranno la quadra,per quanto riguarda le tempistiche come tu e non solo hai rimarcato, ai Greci di chiudere nei tempi non importa nulla ,mal che vada ci sarà un quarto e forse quinto programma ...da un lato noi detentori di bond non rischiamo comunque nulla e i greci evidentemente hanno piacere a rimanere in buona compagnia .
nonsolocopiaincolla
Nuovo forumer
Il mio parere è che i tedeschi son tedeschi (come gli italiani italiani e i greci greci) e che il loro colore politico sia un dettaglio di poco rilievo, in Germania come ovunque : qualunque maggioranza e qualsiasi ministro delle finanze non stravolgeranno nè in meglio nè in peggio il corso degli eventi.
Al momento la nube più densa all'orizzonte è quella delle banche.
Speriamo che le dichiarazioni dei greci al riguardo della necessità di chiudere in fretta la terza valutazione non siano di circostanza.
Al momento la nube più densa all'orizzonte è quella delle banche.
Speriamo che le dichiarazioni dei greci al riguardo della necessità di chiudere in fretta la terza valutazione non siano di circostanza.
m.m.f
Forumer storico
Il chiudere nei tempi pero' non toglie il problema delle banche che comunque puo' portare a un quarto memorandum.Qualcuno non vede l' ora ancora oggi che la grecia vada a gemellarsi con la Turchia e si tolga di mezzo.Aiuti non ne riceveranno ma in Europa oramai e' evidente che non godono di grandi simpatie e di nessuna fiducia in merito.
tommy271
Forumer storico
BOND EURO-Avvio in netto calo su attese restrittive, Btp meno penalizzati
MILANO, 28 settembre (Reuters) - Apertura in netto calo per
i futures sui titoli di Stato europei, con le vendite che
penalizzano soprattutto i contratti sul Bund rispetto a quelli
sul Btp, sullo sfondo di un mercato su cui continua a soffiare
un vento restrittivo.
BOND EURO-Avvio in netto calo su attese restrittive, Btp meno penalizzati
MILANO, 28 settembre (Reuters) - Apertura in netto calo per
i futures sui titoli di Stato europei, con le vendite che
penalizzano soprattutto i contratti sul Bund rispetto a quelli
sul Btp, sullo sfondo di un mercato su cui continua a soffiare
un vento restrittivo.
BOND EURO-Avvio in netto calo su attese restrittive, Btp meno penalizzati
tommy271
Forumer storico
Vendi tutto, sei ancora in tempo.
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