The ASE is collapsing ... the banks wiped out, and the coordinate within the euro approaching bankruptcy .... - Around 60% haircut in the PSI + - near the highs of the CDS - Under pressure the euro .... Mesochronia is the voltage at 1.25 USD 09/01/12 -
17:18
(Upd8) New blow received the ASE and bank shares result of
concerns that Greece could go bankrupt within the euro. The Athens Stock Exchange closed at 636.52 points at -1.71% with a turnover of 24.5 million and 22.9 million shares volume.
Greece is drawn to go bankrupt? The haircut on the debt will be only 58% to 60% or more active in terms of collective action if participation is limited?
The downturn in the Greek economy will deepen further 7% as estimated by the Economist or the end Greece will be expelled from the euro as several analysts say?
It is obvious that the next 60-90 days will be decisive for the fate of the Greek economy.
It is obvious that the Greek economy is the most critical crossroads in its history.
The recession is deep, the banks and decimated dependent can not participate in the recovery of the economy and the country did not mention whether there will be growth, but if you avoid bankruptcy.
It is obvious that a bankruptcy exit of Greece from the euro would be a disaster scenario.
No doubt quite undesirable scenario.
However, it is unlikely that bankruptcy of Greece within the euro that is baptized as a coordinate of bankruptcy.
The reason and cause to be the PSI + as t
he haircut will exceed the threshold of 50% and as mentioned in the first BankingNews.gr | Online ????????? ????????? will move between 58% to 60%.
This will certify ISDA credit event credit event and will fill the CDS and the rating agencies Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch will rate in Greece under a bankruptcy. The question is whether it is a selective default or bankruptcy net.
However,
the coordinate of bankruptcy seems the most likely scenario for Greece and especially especially if you activate the collective action clauses in the event that participation in the PSI + limited to only 55% to 60%.
Perhaps 70% and higher will not energize collective action clauses ....
What does all this mean in terms of market?
It is obvious that the evolution and dynamics of things is such that Greece will be difficult to avoid bankruptcy drawn in Euro.
When this happens the market has recorded historical lows as banking shares. The ASE will be found in the 500 to 550 units.
These may occur in the next 60-90 days.
At present the meeting Merkel - Sarkozy, after the new ultimatum that no new loan agreement, not be paid the next dose, had its political significance, however, the markets show signs of serious fatigue.
The ASE at 636.5 points to -1.71% is an enclave market, a collapsing market.
The banking stocks record big losses as if anticipating slowly and gradually things to come.
The National at 1.36 Euro -5.56% to 1.30 billion valuation
The Alpha € 0.43 to -7.53% with 229 million euro valuation
The Eurobank in 0.3010 -6.81% to EUR 166 million valuation
Piraeus to 0.2190 -4.37% to EUR 250 million valuation
The Cyprus to 0.51% -6.42 EUR 458 million in valuation
The Marfin at 0.2320 -5.69% to EUR 373 million valuation
The Attica bank at 0.19 euros by stabilizing valuation 46.5 million
Of the non-bank shares PPC -3.20% 1.49% OTE, OPAP -0.16% -0.77% the OJEC, the Ellaktor -1.69%, the MIG -2, 29%.
Reflections on bond markets and currency
In the same monotonous pattern of the bond market anticipating the worst.
The CDS and bond yields are near historic high.
The CDS in Greece 7200 bps or 72% in Ireland 715 bp Portugal 1115 bps Spain 444 bp Italy 533 bp France 236 bp and Germany 112 bp
Yields also close to historical highs.
In Italy 7.08% in 10 years, Spain 5.53%, France 3.30% and 4.52% in Belgium. Illustration, the average return of Greek 10-year stands at 35%.
Meanwhile, a negative yield was 0.0122% today 6 months T-Bills auction, Germany, from which he raised 3.9 billion euros.
The euro, however, is the large negative starring recently.
Dropped to low 15 months to $ 1.2665.
The corridor currently $ 1.2775 and $ 1.2665.
Now trading at $ 1.2750.
The critical technical points located at $ 1.25.
If they break could lead to the euro below $ 1.20.
So the mesochronia state of the euro is technically at $ 1.25.
If, however, keep the levels of $ 1.27 for the euro is a positive development short ...
E' solo quello che volevo dire in modo chiaro!
