Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 2 (15 lettori)

[cariatide]

Hopes of a debt deal between Greece and its private creditors in time for Monday's eurozone meeting have been dashed, amid increased pressure on bondholders to accept bigger losses.

After being close to a breakthrough, the high-stakes talks – aimed at averting a Greek default by slashing the country's monumental debt load – were set back when the International Monetary Fund and Germany insisted that investors agree to reduced interest rates on new bonds.

"It has created a new set of problems," said an official, who added that the demand for lower rates reflected growing scepticism over the sustainability of Greece's debt, even if 50% is written off as initially agreed when the European Union and IMF announced a second package of rescue funds for Athens last October.

"Negotiations have been conducted by phone over the weekend and have been very intense," said the official. "Greece will set out its case at the Eurogroup [of finance ministers]. Our hope is that the differences can be bridged and there can be more solid common ground."

Well-placed sources described the delay as "putting a brake" on a deal that was virtually in place. Private government debt holders, including banks, insurers and hedge funds, had reportedly reached an agreement on interest rates averaging 4% before official creditors including the IMF and the European Central Bank called for yields to be no higher than 3.5%, citing the deteriorating Greek economic outlook.

On Saturday, Charles Dallara, who heads the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the global organisation of private investors, unexpectedly left Athens despite officials saying that he would be present at talks over the weekend. The IIF is negotiating on behalf of institutions owed about €200bn by Greece.

With so much resting on the eurozone's first large-scale debt restructuring, Greek insiders said the latest hitch would be the focus of talks between Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing director, and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, in Berlin last night. Finance ministers representing the 17 eurozone countries also meet on Monday to discuss the debt restructuring.

Previously, the Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, had told parliament that the debt reduction plan would have to be in place by Monday to give lenders enough time to draw up a second €130bn bailout for the country before the EU's next summit on 30 January. Private creditor participation has been set as a prerequisite by the EU and IMF for further aid. Without the loans Athens will be unable to meet a €14.5bn bond repayment due on 20 March, triggering a default on its debts.

"A lot of things will have to be made official by [the time] I go to the Eurogroup meeting," said Venizelos. "If there is a [financing] gap, this would have to be covered by a larger contribution from the official sector, meaning the eurozone countries, directly or indirectly, and at this point I do not see any willingness or readiness to increase that contribution. So there must be no gap. The private-sector involvement is very important."

Late on Sunday it emerged that the talks, now heading into their third week, might continue through to next weekend. "Deadlines may be moved. Ultimately it may all be agreed at the summit," said another official. "This is a very complex, highly delicate agreement that cannot just be settled like that."

The voluntary bond swap originally foresaw €100bn being sliced from Greece's €360bn debt pile, bringing its debt-to-GDP ratio down from 160% to 120% by 2020. If interest rates were cut further, net present-value losses for bondholders could be in excess of 70% – a haircut or write-off that many might refuse to accept voluntarily. Hedge funds in particular are holding out in hope that they will be able to cash in on credit default swaps, which pay out when a bond defaults.

Greek debt talks on knife-edge amid growing IMF pressure on bondholders | World news | The Guardian

 

[ferdo]

BERLIN, Jan 22 (Reuters) - German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Sunday the crucial factor in negotiations over a debt-swap plan for Greece was that Athens should by 2020 have a sustainable level of borrowing. "This goal must be achieved," he told German public broadcaster ARD. Chief negotiators for Greece's private creditors left Athens on Saturday without a deal on a debt-swap plan that is vital to avert a chaotic default, sources close to the talks told Reuters. [ID:nL6E8CL02J] A technical team stayed in the Greek capital to work on details, and negotiations will continue over the phone, but it is unlikely a deal can be clinched before a crucial meeting on Monday of euro zone finance ministers, the sources said. Asked whether a haircut of 70 percent on Greek debt would be sufficient, Schaeuble said: "It depends on the details. The negotiations are continuing." The International Monetary Fund insists any deal must ensure Greece's debt burden will be cut to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020 from 160 percent now, as agreed at an EU summit in October, and has warned that this is made more difficult by a worsening of Athens' economic prospects. [ID:nL1E8CBE7W] Schaeuble said Greece was having difficulty implementing reforms but would have to; "otherwise, the situation cannot be resolved". Germany's finance minister also rejected pressure to beef up the euro zone's permanent rescue facility, saying Berlin would stick to the agreement made in December for a lending capacity of 500 billion euros ($646 billion). "We are sticking to what was agreed in December," Schaeuble said. "In March we will check whether that is sufficient." The draft treaty establishing the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) will be discussed by euro zone finance ministers on Monday and is likely to be approved by EU leaders at their summit on Jan. 30, euro zone officials have said. Leaders from the single-currency bloc will review in March whether the limit of 500 billion euros is sufficient. Markets and the European Commission, the European Central Bank, the United States, Canada and Japan have been calling for the euro zone to bolster the capacity of its bailout funds. But the euro zone's main paymaster, Germany, remains opposed. Schaeuble said Germany was doing more than its fair share to resolve the euro zone's debt crisis. "The problems did not emerge in Germany," he said. "We are doing more than all the others and while the European unification has yielded great advantages for us, this does not mean that solidarity is a one-way street." He also said it was apparent that markets were beginning to regain confidence. "We are not yet out of the woods but over the last few weeks, many (debt) auctions have shown that the markets are beginning to regain confidence."

 

[ferdo]

PARIS, Jan 22 (Reuters) - France's Finance Minister Francois Baroin said he has "good reason" to hope negotiations will succeed between Greece and its creditors, according to a televised interview on Sunday. Chief negotiators for Greece's private creditors left Athens on Saturday without a deal on a debt swap plan that is vital to avert a chaotic default, sources close to the negotiations told Reuters. [ID:nL6E8CL02J] Baroin said such breaks in the talks were normal given the complexity of the issues involved. "There are points of suspension, on important subjects..." he said, adding that it was important that the international community keep pressuring Greece to fulfill its pledges. Following several rounds of talks from Wednesday to Friday, Greece and its private creditors are converging towards a deal in which private creditors will take a real loss of 65 to 70 percent, sources close to the negotiations said. But a lot of details are still unresolved, including on legal aspects of the deal, the sources said.

 

[ferdo]

ATHENS, Jan 22 (Reuters) - The chief negotiator for Greece's private creditors said on Sunday he remained confident that a deal could be reached on a debt swap plan to slash Athens' debt as the country races against the clock to avoid a messy default. Greece and its private creditors are converging towards a deal but many details are still unresolved, sources close to the negotiations said during the weekend. "We are at a crossroads and I remain quite hopeful," Institute of International Finance chief Charles Dallara told Antenna TV on Sunday. Athens needs a deal in the coming days to stay afloat when a major debt redemption comes due in March. After several rounds of talks from Wednesday to Friday, Dallara and special advisor Jean Lemierre left Athens on Saturday without having finalised the deal, with sources saying talks are converging towards private creditors accepting to take a real loss of 65 to 70 percent. Much of the attention will now turn to a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday, and to whether EU states and the IMF consider that the deal that is being put together by Athens and bankers does put Greece's debt back on a sustainable track. One key question will be whether the deal attracts a big enough participation rate. "We are working together with the Greek government, European and global leaders and we can mobilise very very high participation," Dallara said.

 

[ferdo]

3 utenti - 41 ! ospiti !!!
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cosa può essere successo nelle negoziazioni?
ipotesi:
la partecipazione è bassina e si arriva a 70 mld contro i 100 mld:
Grecia chiede a UE di aumentare contributi della differenza?
Ovviamente Germania non accetta, e Germania e FMI chiedono di tagliare di più e IIF non accetta (c'è stato un colloquio Merkel-Lagarde)?
gli hedge fund concentrati sulle brevi non aderiscono e IIF ha richiesto un incentivo per le emissioni marzo-maggio 2012 per aumentare le adesioni?

ripeto tutte ipotesi - con indiscrezioni circolate in giornata
in ogni caso un bel cas.ino

 

[discipline]

Sull'altro forum segnalavo la home di zerohedge di oggi.. i post di oggi vanno giù pesantissimi.. anche su Draghi & Monti..

ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

 

[bosmeld]

ragionamento molto interessante e secondo me corretto

Barclays: ECB’s participation is the key for the success of PSI




Over the past few weeks the discussions on the PSI in Greece have intensified again not just between the Greek government and the private sector but also at a higher level including comments from Merkel and other Troika officials, says Barcays in a report. This has raised many questions from investors on the topic, therefore Barclays attempt to answer most of these questions below in Q&A format.


1) Will the PSI go ahead?
It seems at this stage that the policy makers are quite determined to proceed with the PSI and finalise it as soon as possible. If Greece aims to stay in the eurozone without hard default, PSI is crucial as a funding resource as well as to improve debt sustainability. There is still some small probability that the whole PSI negotiations can fall apart and Greece can hard-default on its debt. However, in this latter scenario the risk of Greece leaving the eurozone would be much higher unless rest of eurozone decided to fund Greece for so many years to come. Given the vulnerable state of the eurozone at this stage, policy makers cannot afford to let the latter scenario happen in our view. Therefore, most likely baseline scenario is that PSI will go ahead in some form.


2) Can the PSI be delayed?
PSI has already been delayed many times since summer 2011, and there is not another three months to delay it. Greece was able to stretch its finances up until now to avoid a hard default. With the €8bn sixth tranche release from the EU/IMF first programme, Greece has enough funds to continue until the March redemptions (€14.4bn redemption on 20 March 2012). However, without the PSI and further EU resources, there is not any room for the March redemption to be paid. As such, March Greek redemption is implicitly the hard deadline for Greece.

The latest timeline reported by Reuters news reports is as follows. The technical details of the PSI deal are likely to be released over the next week or so. The Troika and Greece would then agree to the second Greek bailout package by the end of January (which is when the next EU summit is held). With all these in place, investors are then invited to the actual PSI process in early February, which is aimed to be finalised by before the end of February.

4) What are the broad targets for the PSI?
The October EU summit set two broad targets for the PSI: 50% notional haircut on €206bn eligible debt targeted for the PSI and 120% debt/GDP by 2020. Alongside these, the PSI was also deemed to be in voluntary in nature.
On the whole, the headlines coming from policymakers still by and large show that they are willing to stick with these broad targets. While the PSI is deemed to be voluntary, the Troika wants €100bn of debt relief from the PSI, which would imply almost 100% participation. This and the voluntary nature of the PSI are in conflict, though, because it is very difficult to get a universal participation in a voluntary PSI (especially recently – some sovereign wealth funds are reported to have said that if the ECB is excluded from the PSI, they will consider themselves “official sector” as well and not participate). However, Greece and the Troika seem much more determined on achieving universal participation and, as a result, are considering retroactive CACs into existing bonds under Greek law.

5) What are the likely technical details for the new bonds from the exchange?
The new bonds are likely to have a maturity of about 30yrs with coupons of about 4-5% and a 50% notional haircut. Investors would receive 35% notional of new bonds and 15% upfront cash (or a similar NPV worth AAA collateral). Depending on the maturity of the old bonds, the exchange bond might have different splits between notional and cash (but still a 50% notional discount) and a different maturity (a bit longer or shorter than 30y).

Let us also clarify the misunderstanding from the media regarding the haircut and NPV losses. The notional haircut is 50% in the PSI if Greece and Troika stick to the October EU summit target. However, the NPV loss will also depend on the final coupon and maturity, as well as the discount rate used to find the present value of the cash flows. For instance, a new 30y bond with 35% of notional, 15% upfront cash payment and a 5% coupon will result in about 65% NPV loss with a 9% discount rate, but a 70% NPV loss with a 12% discount rate. Moreover, while there was a dispute on this about a month ago, it seems most likely now that the new bonds from the PSI will be under English law.

6) Does the PSI in its current form make the Greek debt sustainable?
The October Troika debt sustainability report highlights that the current PSI with nearly universal participation gets debt/GDP close to 120% by 2020. First, this number is still on the high side to conclude that Greek debt is sustainable. Second, the underlying macroeconomic assumptions by the October Troika report in terms of GDP growth and primary balance post-2015 are still optimistic (c.3.8% average nominal growth and average 4% primary balance). If these macroeconomic assumptions are reduced to a more realistic 2.5-3%, then the debt sustainability picture would look much worse.
As seen in Figure 1, a 50% national haircut with 50% participation does not get Greece close to 120% debt/GDP by 2020, as envisaged even with the relatively optimistic macro economic assumptions of the Troika. Only if 100% participation is achieved would close to a 120% debt/GDP target be reached. For this reason, the Troika does not want to sacrifice universal participation and is determined to do whatever is necessary to maintain it. When worse macroeconomic assumptions are used, the notional haircut needed for a reasonably sustainable debt path is about 80%. Therefore, if Greece and the Troika go ahead with October summit broad parameters for the PSI, even with 100% participation Greek debt is not likely to be sustainable in the absence of substantial fiscal and structural adjustment by Greece in the years ahead.

7) How likely is it that CACs will be introduced to the existing Greek government bonds? If they are, will they be used and what do these mean for CDS triggers?
Given the determination of policymakers to achieve universal participation, CACs are very likely to be introduced to the existing bonds, in our opinion. The question remains whether they will be used at the end of the formal PSI process or not. The mere act of introducing CACs does not trigger the CDS, but if the CACs are used subsequently, that action will likely trigger the CDS. While we think that CACs are very likely to be introduced, policymakers would likely prefer not to use them to avoid CDS trigger if they can. In other words, if the mere existence of CACs brings a very high participation such as 95% from the voluntary PSI, then we do not think the holdouts will be forced by CACs. However, if the participation is less, say about 70-80%, policymakers would not hesitate to use the CACs due to the fact that debt sustainability is in even greater jeopardy without 100% participation.

8) Will the ECB participate?
With the probability of CACs being introduced to the existing bonds under Greek law, the expectation that the ECB might participate with its GGB holdings under the SMP has increased as well. However, even if CACs are introduced, it should still be technically possible to exclude the ECB.
During this week’s ECB press conference, President Draghi said the ECB is not in the private sector and therefore is not on table for negotiations with Greece regarding the details of the deal. However, he did not have as hard stance as Mr Trichet, and the press conference was somewhat vague regarding what the ECB might end up doing in the end. Therefore, we do not think some form of ECB participation can be ruled out at this stage.

9) What kind of difference does it make if the ECB did participate?
If the ECB participates in the PSI under the same terms as private investors, it would have certain implications for Greece as well as the markets. First, it would increase the probability of a higher take-up by other investors. Second, the debt sustainability of Greece would improve somewhat more because the PSI eligible paper size would increase from €206bn to about €250bn. The schedule for release of funds from the EU/IMF to Greece under the second programme would not have to be as frontloaded given that the ECB would likely to be holding mostly front-end Greek paper.

In terms of market implications, ECB participation is likely to give the market some important messages. First, it makes the December changes in the ESM draft regarding private sector participation more credible. In other words, Greece is unique and the only PSI for eurozone, but even if there might be more PSI in the future, there is at least some part of official sector that took a loss, which makes the issue of subordination of existing holders less concerning. Second, ECB participation also gives the message to the market that the ECB is determined and willing to be bold to help resolve the eurozone crisis.

10) Does it really matter if the CDS is triggered?
The GGB market is already pricing in pretty much the worst case scenario as bonds post-2014 maturities are trading flat at the 20-25 price level. The contagion effect of the CDS trigger on other asset classes is most likely to be muted as well, or at least not as negative as the market has been expecting. According to DTCC, net protection outstanding is pretty small as well at €3.3bn. More important, a CDS trigger is pretty well publicised now. Indeed, if the ECB decides to participate in the end as well, the market effect, as we discussed above, can be positive even if CDS is triggered. If the PSI negotiations fall apart and a hard default occurs, then the contagion and the implications for the market can be substantial.



Barclays: ECB

 

[robinson]

ha da passa' a nuttata.

Ora la nuttata è passata...
tra un po' riaprono i mercati...
e nessuno dice ancora nulla!

La % di adesione?
e pertanto si faranno le cac (o meno?)

qui tutto tace!

(aspettando godot... se non si è fermato anche lui al bar a farsi un ouzo)

 

[tommy271]

Sull'altro forum segnalavo la home di zerohedge di oggi.. i post di oggi vanno giù pesantissimi.. anche su Draghi & Monti..

ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

Da leggere, anche se con qualche leggera "imprecisione" di ZeroHedge.
Non mi risulta, infatti che la Grecia non sia più sotto la copertura del programma FMI.

Zero Hedge: Domande e Risposte sulla Ristrutturazione Greca, e sul perché non serve a niente - Dall'Estero - Investireoggi.it

 

[tommy271]

La pressione del FMI e della Germania sulla cedola bassa

Pacchetto di aiuti nuovi e PSI sul tavolo dell'Eurogruppo mezzo di pressione per il tasso del 3%

Pubblicato: Lunedi January 23, 2012



Il secondo pacchetto di stimolo per la Grecia e soprattutto l'andamento delle trattative con la IIF di "haircut" del debito pubblico greco sarà affrontato il Lunedi a Bruxelles, una riunione dei ministri delle finanze della zona euro (Eurogruppo).

Al centro dell'Eurogruppo è ancora nuovo simposio finanziario e del modo in cui l'area dell'euro aumenterà la "firewall" contro la crisi del debito.

Allo stesso tempo, sia il FMI e la Germania spremuto creditori privati ​​ad accettare un tasso medio di circa il 3% nei nuovi titoli greci, e credono che l'economia greca in grado di sopportare tassi di interesse al fine di rendere il debito sostenibile .
Gli sviluppi degli ultimi giorni e l'atteggiamento che non mancherà di tenere la squadra economica del governo hanno discusso una lunga riunione Domenica presso il Ministero delle Finanze sotto Evangelos Venizelos e la partecipazione di G. Zanias del SOE e P. Christodoulou dal PDMA.

La parte greca è Mediatore dell'Eurogruppo un progetto di accordo con le banche per il PSI, che è un prerequisito per l'approvazione del nuovo prestito di 130 miliardi di euro.
Il testo verrà considerato dai ministri delle Finanze della zona euro, ma non c'è nessuna decisione sul pacchetto di stimolo nuovo, come finanziatori, alla luce di nuove informazioni sulla recessione e in cerca di un nuovo studio sulla fattibilità del debito greco.

I tempi sono stretti oggi, e parla sul PSI dovrebbe essere completata entro i prossimi giorni, così il 30 gennaio, il vertice UE di dare il "via libera".
Le procedure per il nuovo pacchetto di stimolo dovrebbe essere completato entro marzo, e la Grecia dovrà pagare il 20 marzo bond pari a EUR 14,5 miliardi.

Anche nella peggiore delle ipotesi, tuttavia, le fonti citate dalla agenzia Dow Jones sostengono che l'UE e il FMI non lascerà fallire la Grecia, e quindi l'idea è di un prestito - un ponte fino a un pacchetto di 130 miliardi per il paese per rimborsare il bond a marzo.
Battaglia per il tasso

A mezzogiorno Venerdì scorso è stato alcun approccio al governo greco e la IIF per un tasso medio del 4% circa.

Ma l'insistenza del governo tedesco e la FMI per una cedola minima del 3% al 3,5%, "congelato" l'accordo.
La ristrutturazione del debito greco sotto PSI + fornisce un legame al 50% nominale di € 206.000.000.000 detenuti da privati. Oltre il 50%, 35% sarà dato un nuovo 30 anni di durata greco legame (e probabilmente un periodo di grazia di 10 anni) e il restante 15% con titoli a breve termine EFSF fino a 2 anni (o in contanti, anche se questo scenario è ora rimosso) .

Supponendo che il tasso di sconto (tasso di sconto) è del 9% e la cedola media del 4%, allora il danno agli obbligazionisti privati ​​in valore attuale netto (valore attuale netto) è del 68%.

Come chiarito dal capo della IIF Charles Dalaras e tv ANT1 intervista, è il "migliore" proposta può essere presentata da creditori privati, in altre parole, la "linea rossa" oltre la quale non parteciperà volontariamente a + PSI.

Del tasso di sconto e coupon stesso 3,6% la perdita sale a circa il 70%, mentre se la cedola è del 3%, allora la perdita VAN sale al 72%.

(Ta Nea)

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Il punto della discussione.