Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 2 (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione tommy271
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ANALYSIS: Greek default may be gift to other euro strugglers
07 March 2012
Reuters) - Greece’s tortuous debt restructuring and threat of retroactive laws to compel reluctant creditors heaps regulatory risk onto investors but may make voluntary sovereign debt revamps more attractive and likely for other cash-strapped euro sovereigns and their creditors.
Thursday could mark a climax of the Greek debt workout with private creditors due to respond to an offer that would see them effectively write off more than 70 percent of the face value of their bonds in return for new debt with a series of sweeteners.
In essence, English-law Greek bonds, as is the case for many emerging market sovereigns, trade as if they were senior to local-law debt – at almost twice the price in fact right now.
With Greek government bonds currently trading at less than 20 cents in the euro and the risk of a total wipeout if Greece decided to unilaterally refuse all payments, a majority will likely go for it. Legally-binding majorities are another matter.
Athens said this week it aims for 90 percent acceptance but if the takeup is at least 75 percent then it would consider triggering so-called “collective action clauses” retroactively inserted into the bonds issued under Greek law – about 85 percent of the 200 billion euros being restructured.
Those clauses in practice force all affected creditors to comply.
But it’s this distinction between debt issued under domestic laws and that sold under internationally-accepted English law that some say has consequences for other troubled euro nations eyeing Greece’s so-called Private Sector Involvement, or PSI.
A gift from Greece
In essence, English-law Greek bonds, as is the case for many emerging market sovereigns, trade as if they were senior to local-law debt – at almost twice the price in fact right now. That’s because the terms of foreign-law bonds cannot be altered by an Athens parliament, and agreement for debt swaps is needed bond-by-bond, unlike local laws that aggregate majorities across all debtors and make blocking minorities more difficult to muster.
A paper released this week by Jeromin Zettelmeyer, deputy chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and Duke University Professor Mitu Gulati reckons this legal gulf could well encourage other debt-hobbled euro zone countries and their creditors into mutually acceptable and beneficial debt restructurings.
This would involve an agreed switch in the legal status of the debt in return for relatively modest haircuts.
“Holders of local-law governed bonds in other euro zone countries that are perceived to be at risk might want to make a trade for English-law governed bonds,” the economists wrote. “Depending on how much these bondholders would be willing to pay to make this trade, it could serve the interest of the country as well to make it.”
The sovereign gets a chance to reduce a crippling debt burden while bondholders get greater contractual protection in any future restructuring.
Given that the Greek precedent of retroactive legislation vastly increases the allure of foreign-law bonds, which credit rating firm Moody’s says now make up less than 10 percent of all euro zone government bonds, a window of opportunity may open up.
“Effectively, this is a large gift from the Greeks to the parts of the euro zone that face debt crises. By conducting its debt exchange in the way it did, Greece has in effect resurrected the plausibility of purely voluntary debt-reduction operations in Europe.”
Although Berlin, Paris and Brussels insist the Greek case is a one-off and European Central Bank liquidity has insulated the wider banking system, Portugal’s 10-year bonds still trade as low as 50 cents in the euro and many creditors reckon it will be very difficult for the country to avoid some restructuring.
Even the 10-year debt of fellow bailout recipient Ireland, which many investors reckon has the underlying economic capacity to go back to the markets next year, is still trading at less than 90 cents in the euro and many doubt its imminent market return.
“We still expect a sizeable growth undershoot and deficit overshoot and expect that Ireland will need a second financing package (which may include PSI) beyond 2013,” economists at Citi said on Monday.
What’s more, if Europe’s new fiscal pact is rejected by voters in a planned referendum there in the coming months, Ireland would lose access to the financial backstop of the European Stability Mechanism and likely unnerve many investors.
Yet voluntary debt swaps with some debt relief stemming from more modest haircuts than Greece may well be the best way to ensure these two countries avoid outright default and return to private financing in a reasonable amount of time.
And if such exchanges were wholly voluntary, it would also mean credit default swap insurance would not pay out – a stated aim for many euro policymakers concerned about the speculative nature of a market where it’s possible to buy insurance on something you don’t own.
One danger is that the prospect of countries opting for such a swap may scare creditors in larger countries like Italy and Spain where currently no bond haircut is expected by the market, thanks in large part to the ECB’s liquidity injections.
And the upshot for many economists is that there will be a longer-term price to pay for governments for tinkering with the rules of the game, as many investors view it, via the likes of retroactive bond legislation and obfuscation of CDS markets.
“Investors will expect a premium for bearing this regulatory risk,” Morgan Stanley’s Manoj Pradhan told clients in a note, adding that only central bank liquidity floods were now obscuring the resultant higher financing costs and there would be a dangerous blurring of lines between macro and market risks.
But given that indiscriminate cheap lending was seen as at least partly responsible for the credit binge and bust of the past five years, maybe higher risk premia are not all bad.
(Reporting by Mike Dolan in London)
07 March 2012
Reuters) - Greece’s tortuous debt restructuring and threat of retroactive laws to compel reluctant creditors heaps regulatory risk onto investors but may make voluntary sovereign debt revamps more attractive and likely for other cash-strapped euro sovereigns and their creditors.
Thursday could mark a climax of the Greek debt workout with private creditors due to respond to an offer that would see them effectively write off more than 70 percent of the face value of their bonds in return for new debt with a series of sweeteners.
In essence, English-law Greek bonds, as is the case for many emerging market sovereigns, trade as if they were senior to local-law debt – at almost twice the price in fact right now.
With Greek government bonds currently trading at less than 20 cents in the euro and the risk of a total wipeout if Greece decided to unilaterally refuse all payments, a majority will likely go for it. Legally-binding majorities are another matter.
Athens said this week it aims for 90 percent acceptance but if the takeup is at least 75 percent then it would consider triggering so-called “collective action clauses” retroactively inserted into the bonds issued under Greek law – about 85 percent of the 200 billion euros being restructured.
Those clauses in practice force all affected creditors to comply.
But it’s this distinction between debt issued under domestic laws and that sold under internationally-accepted English law that some say has consequences for other troubled euro nations eyeing Greece’s so-called Private Sector Involvement, or PSI.
A gift from Greece
In essence, English-law Greek bonds, as is the case for many emerging market sovereigns, trade as if they were senior to local-law debt – at almost twice the price in fact right now. That’s because the terms of foreign-law bonds cannot be altered by an Athens parliament, and agreement for debt swaps is needed bond-by-bond, unlike local laws that aggregate majorities across all debtors and make blocking minorities more difficult to muster.
A paper released this week by Jeromin Zettelmeyer, deputy chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and Duke University Professor Mitu Gulati reckons this legal gulf could well encourage other debt-hobbled euro zone countries and their creditors into mutually acceptable and beneficial debt restructurings.
This would involve an agreed switch in the legal status of the debt in return for relatively modest haircuts.
“Holders of local-law governed bonds in other euro zone countries that are perceived to be at risk might want to make a trade for English-law governed bonds,” the economists wrote. “Depending on how much these bondholders would be willing to pay to make this trade, it could serve the interest of the country as well to make it.”
The sovereign gets a chance to reduce a crippling debt burden while bondholders get greater contractual protection in any future restructuring.
Given that the Greek precedent of retroactive legislation vastly increases the allure of foreign-law bonds, which credit rating firm Moody’s says now make up less than 10 percent of all euro zone government bonds, a window of opportunity may open up.
“Effectively, this is a large gift from the Greeks to the parts of the euro zone that face debt crises. By conducting its debt exchange in the way it did, Greece has in effect resurrected the plausibility of purely voluntary debt-reduction operations in Europe.”
Although Berlin, Paris and Brussels insist the Greek case is a one-off and European Central Bank liquidity has insulated the wider banking system, Portugal’s 10-year bonds still trade as low as 50 cents in the euro and many creditors reckon it will be very difficult for the country to avoid some restructuring.
Even the 10-year debt of fellow bailout recipient Ireland, which many investors reckon has the underlying economic capacity to go back to the markets next year, is still trading at less than 90 cents in the euro and many doubt its imminent market return.
“We still expect a sizeable growth undershoot and deficit overshoot and expect that Ireland will need a second financing package (which may include PSI) beyond 2013,” economists at Citi said on Monday.
What’s more, if Europe’s new fiscal pact is rejected by voters in a planned referendum there in the coming months, Ireland would lose access to the financial backstop of the European Stability Mechanism and likely unnerve many investors.
Yet voluntary debt swaps with some debt relief stemming from more modest haircuts than Greece may well be the best way to ensure these two countries avoid outright default and return to private financing in a reasonable amount of time.
And if such exchanges were wholly voluntary, it would also mean credit default swap insurance would not pay out – a stated aim for many euro policymakers concerned about the speculative nature of a market where it’s possible to buy insurance on something you don’t own.
One danger is that the prospect of countries opting for such a swap may scare creditors in larger countries like Italy and Spain where currently no bond haircut is expected by the market, thanks in large part to the ECB’s liquidity injections.
And the upshot for many economists is that there will be a longer-term price to pay for governments for tinkering with the rules of the game, as many investors view it, via the likes of retroactive bond legislation and obfuscation of CDS markets.
“Investors will expect a premium for bearing this regulatory risk,” Morgan Stanley’s Manoj Pradhan told clients in a note, adding that only central bank liquidity floods were now obscuring the resultant higher financing costs and there would be a dangerous blurring of lines between macro and market risks.
But given that indiscriminate cheap lending was seen as at least partly responsible for the credit binge and bust of the past five years, maybe higher risk premia are not all bad.
(Reporting by Mike Dolan in London)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Chi aderisce allo swap avrà accreditato il rateo con uno ZC a sei mesi dell'EFSF.
davide8
Nuovo forumer
Senza responsabilita', da un altro forum...
Greek website BankingNews.gr | Online ????????? ????????? reports that so far around €156bl out of €206 bl or 76% have offered to participate in the PSI. The breakdown is:
GR ISINs (Greek law) €135-136 bl out of € 177.4 bl or 76.6% participation
XS ISINs (Foreign law) €13.5-14 bl out of € 18 bl or 77% participation
Loans €6-7 bl out of € 7.9 bl
The last date for voting is tomorrow Thursday, 9 pm CET, though many custodians
Greek website BankingNews.gr | Online ????????? ????????? reports that so far around €156bl out of €206 bl or 76% have offered to participate in the PSI. The breakdown is:
GR ISINs (Greek law) €135-136 bl out of € 177.4 bl or 76.6% participation
XS ISINs (Foreign law) €13.5-14 bl out of € 18 bl or 77% participation
Loans €6-7 bl out of € 7.9 bl
The last date for voting is tomorrow Thursday, 9 pm CET, though many custodians
have imposed prior deadlines and are already on a best effort basis. If the participation rate in bonds under Greek law is confirmed then it would enable the enforcement of CACs and almost certainly require it. Officials are indicating that it is likely that CACs will be used unless participation significantly increases (triggering the CDS). There are reports that 5 state owned pension funds are refusing to participate, total holdings €2 bl. Minister of Finance would most likely force them to participate with an executive order. It was also stated that if PSI does not go ahead the official sector financial support would disappear. Furthermore, there will be no cash sweeteners for holdouts. Assuming that CACs are activated this could only be referring to foreign law bonds where blocking minorities have been accumulated and implies that Greece will default on them Market rumours that the deadline will be extended (the deadline for this is 4pm CET) have been denied by the Head of the Debt office. Hard talk which could get even harder as the deadline approaches while the market rhetoric remains unconvinced. Did we really go through this process to get a hard default in the end? At the very least a disorderly one will have been avoided. Foreign law bonds (GREECE, HELNRR) bonds continue to be the main focus in the market. For all trades language as to bonds tendered status will apply.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Con circa 19 miliardi dovrebbero aderire gli enti previdenziali
Al 81 miliardi partecipazione IIF in PSI
Pubblicato: Mercoledì, 7 Marzo 2012
Ultimo aggiornamento: 2012/07/03 15:25
Solo per il web
Circa 30 i creditori privati, i membri del comitato direttivo IIF che hanno risposto positivamente alla richiesta di PSI, parteciperà con 81 miliardi, pari a 39,9% del debito greco, ha detto oggi del Fondo monetario internazionale (Istituto IIF). Nel programma, secondo le informazioni trasmesse da Reuters, si uniranno circa 19 miliardi gestiti dalla Banca di Grecia per conto dei fondi assicurativi.
In un avviso emesso dal Comitato di Coordinamento, ha ribadito che i membri sostengono con forza il recente accordo tra la Grecia e l'Eurozona Fondo Monetario Internazionale (FMI), al fine di creare un nuovo programma di adeguamento e il finanziamento per la Grecia. Il programma prevede lo scambio volontario di debito greco detenuta da investitori privati.
In questo contesto, i membri del comitato direttivo partecipare al bando pubblico dalla Grecia in titoli di EUR 81 miliardi, pari a 39,3% dei 206 miliardi debito detenuto da investitori privati.
L'importo si riferisce al legame: Ageas, Allianz, Alpha Bank, AXA, Banque Postale, BBVA, BNP Paribas, CNP Assurances, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Credit Foncier, DekaBank, Deutsche Bank, Dexia, Emporiki Bank of Greece, EFG Eurobank , Generali, Greylock Capital Management, Groupama, HSBC, ING, Intesa San Paolo, KBC, Marfin Popular Bank, Metlife, National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, Société Générale, Unicredit.
Allo stesso tempo, le obbligazioni di 18 miliardi di 19 gestiti dalla Banca di Grecia per conto dei fondi di assicurazione, si unirà al greco programma di scambio bond, ha detto a Reuters esperti.
"Il capitale pubblico (persone giuridiche di diritto pubblico e sicurezza sociale) parteciperà alla» PSI, ha detto uno dei suoi ufficiali, che ha voluto restare anonimo.
Da parte del governo stanno aumentando la pressione sul fondo di cinque-al momento-che si è rifiutato di partecipare alla PSI, ministro delle finanze Evangelos Venizelos ha accusato l'amministrazione di tale unione per motivi di "ottenere i loro assicurati al collo e pensionati".
(Ta Nea)
Al 81 miliardi partecipazione IIF in PSI
Pubblicato: Mercoledì, 7 Marzo 2012
Ultimo aggiornamento: 2012/07/03 15:25
Solo per il web
Circa 30 i creditori privati, i membri del comitato direttivo IIF che hanno risposto positivamente alla richiesta di PSI, parteciperà con 81 miliardi, pari a 39,9% del debito greco, ha detto oggi del Fondo monetario internazionale (Istituto IIF). Nel programma, secondo le informazioni trasmesse da Reuters, si uniranno circa 19 miliardi gestiti dalla Banca di Grecia per conto dei fondi assicurativi.
In un avviso emesso dal Comitato di Coordinamento, ha ribadito che i membri sostengono con forza il recente accordo tra la Grecia e l'Eurozona Fondo Monetario Internazionale (FMI), al fine di creare un nuovo programma di adeguamento e il finanziamento per la Grecia. Il programma prevede lo scambio volontario di debito greco detenuta da investitori privati.
In questo contesto, i membri del comitato direttivo partecipare al bando pubblico dalla Grecia in titoli di EUR 81 miliardi, pari a 39,3% dei 206 miliardi debito detenuto da investitori privati.
L'importo si riferisce al legame: Ageas, Allianz, Alpha Bank, AXA, Banque Postale, BBVA, BNP Paribas, CNP Assurances, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Credit Foncier, DekaBank, Deutsche Bank, Dexia, Emporiki Bank of Greece, EFG Eurobank , Generali, Greylock Capital Management, Groupama, HSBC, ING, Intesa San Paolo, KBC, Marfin Popular Bank, Metlife, National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, Société Générale, Unicredit.
Allo stesso tempo, le obbligazioni di 18 miliardi di 19 gestiti dalla Banca di Grecia per conto dei fondi di assicurazione, si unirà al greco programma di scambio bond, ha detto a Reuters esperti.
"Il capitale pubblico (persone giuridiche di diritto pubblico e sicurezza sociale) parteciperà alla» PSI, ha detto uno dei suoi ufficiali, che ha voluto restare anonimo.
Da parte del governo stanno aumentando la pressione sul fondo di cinque-al momento-che si è rifiutato di partecipare alla PSI, ministro delle finanze Evangelos Venizelos ha accusato l'amministrazione di tale unione per motivi di "ottenere i loro assicurati al collo e pensionati".
(Ta Nea)
fullofmoney
Forumer attivo
ho inserito anche io i miei ggb ma secondo me dovreste dare maggiore visibilità, magari mettere un link in prima pagina.
Perchè non fate come nei forum di elettronica dove in prima pagina di ogni thread ci sono gli aggiornamenti discussi nelle pagine successive che possono essere anche migliaia???
Ultima modifica:
TORO2002
Nuovo forumer
Scusa Tommy, io non aderito allo swap. Ho cmq diritto al rateo? Un po' di chiarezza se sei in possesso di altre informazioni. Sempre grazie
TORO2002
Nuovo forumer
Ho inserito anche io i miei ( una volta miei!!!!!) ggb
russiabond
Il mito, la leggenda.
...ok registrato il malloppo ...
tanto da lunedi ci legnano...
...aspetterò il Portogallo con molta pazienza ..."forse"
- Stato