Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1

[gionmorg]

Grazie x i prezzi.
Mah, secondo me le migliori rischio/durata/rendimento sono Htm/Fage/Clondalkin.
Si dovrebbe prendere a poco più di 99, incrementata giovedì a 99,05

E' già in ptf con pmc 99, ma per il momento non vorrei incrementare, invece sto facendo un pensierino a htm.

 

[nik.sala]

E' già in ptf con pmc 99, ma per il momento non vorrei incrementare, invece sto facendo un pensierino a htm.

Io sto incrementando pian piano su tutte, salendo gradatamente come % di ptf man mano che ho un pò di liquidi.
Son le ultime occasioni da 1k.
Fra un pò, penso diventeranno illiquide...
Cmq HTM & CLONDALKIN in primis, poi IKB & FAGE che sono un pò più per il settore di appartenenza e la storia particolare (IKB) e per il paese di emissione (FAGE).

 

[nik.sala]

Prezzi

Clondalkin 848 98,00/99,25
Ikb 219 85,50/86,00
Novasep 816 58,00/59,00
Petrol AD 447 73,00/76,00
Eircom 974 35,00/36,50
Dubai 821 86,75/89,50
Beverage 602 102,00/102,50
Atu 84,00/84,50
Cedc 94,00/96,00

 

[gionmorg]

CEDC redeems term loan
In a press release, CEDC announced that the
company has opted for a redemption of the
company’s term loan of PLN 122.5m (USD
45.2m) with Bank Handlowy and Bank
Zachodnia. Moreover, CEDC has decided to
maintain an undrawn credit facility of PLN
120m (USD 44.5m). As part of the agreement,
the margin of the credit facility will also be
reduced by 100 basis points. Over the next nine
months, the margin will be reduced even
further and the amount available will be
reduced accordingly. In future, the credit
facility will not comprise any other restrictive
covenants.
Redemption of the term loan will be financed
via the cash holdings on the balance sheet. In
Q1 2011, CEDC recorded a very strong free cash
flow, resulting in cash holdings of USD 168m at
the end of the quarter. Cash holdings of USD
168m exceed market expectations significantly
and we assess that investors will applaud the
news. We maintain our Strong BUY
recommendation for CEDC €8.875% 2016 and
CEDC $9.125% 2016.

 

[gionmorg]

ING Investment Management launches new fund for emerging market corporate bonds on the market
By 1 February 2011 launched ING (L) Renta Fund Emerging Markets Debt Corporate ING Investment Management offers investors the chance of above-average risk-adjusted returns. "Corporate bonds from emerging countries have excellent earnings prospects," said Susan Hellmann, CEO of ING Investment Management in Germany, "in the last decade brought Bonds of emerging market companies significantly higher returns than corporate bonds from developed nations, and they tend to be at a spread over government bonds of similar credit quality acted. "

The still relatively new asset class offers diversification benefits over other bond sectors, as the benchmark of the pension fund, JP Morgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index (CEMBI), a wider spread across Asia, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa includes across as a government bond index for emerging countries. Of banks and industry to oil and telecommunications also a variety of industries are represented, and the rating on the CEMBI is better with 70 percent share of investment-grade bonds than in the counterpart.

Of a volume of ten million Euro was launched, UCIT III compliant ING (L) Renta Fund Emerging Markets Corporate Debt targeted through the entire market cycle, a multi-annual return of 100-200 basis points before management fees over the benchmark, it's at an annualized tracking error of about 200 to 400 basis points. The fund manager Victor Rodriguez and Nish Popat use fundamental country, company and sector analysis, and to the identification of trends in the business landscape to generate alpha across country weightings and Fehlbepreisungen inefficient markets to uncover in. Internal ratings and estimates of relative values ​​compared to the industry easier to find the most attractive titles. Strict risk management and a disciplined diversification across issuers, sectors and countries protect the portfolio, liquidity risk is also given great attention, in some cases to reduce exposures can. At least 80 percent of ING (L) Renta Fund Emerging Markets Corporate debt consists of corporate bonds as defined by JP Morgan, maximum 25 percent allowed public debt accounts. The fund typically includes 75-100 individual values.

The prospects of emerging market corporate bonds are very interesting because the asset class is becoming more liquid and richer. JP Morgan estimates that corporate bonds in 2010 around 70 per cent of total issuance in emerging markets accounted for, before the financial crisis, the proportion was only about 50 per cent. Their liquidity is still lower than for government bonds, and they are noticed in the press and in the research less. For managers with great expertise resulting from alpha-chances, but not many providers have the necessary expertise.

 

[gionmorg]

Moody’s places Fiat’s Ba1 rating for a possible downgrade
“Sell” the FIAT 5.625% 06/17 at a price of 97.5 or a Z-spread of 296 bps. “Hold” the rest of the Fiat bonds. “Neutral” on 5Y CDS trading at 356 bps
Following the news of Fiat’s 16% stake increase in Chrysler to 46%, Moody’s also placed the Ba1 rating of Fiat under review for a possible downgrade. Moody’s follows Fitch which placed Fiat’s BB+ rating on “watch negative” last week and S&P, which confirmed its BB rating with a “negative outlook”. In other news, according to unconfirmed sources, Chrysler will make an announcement on Thursday regarding a refinancing package to repay its government loans. As a reminder, Fiat’s 16% stake increase is contingent upon Chrysler’s ability to refinance its outstanding government debt. We retain our “Medium Risk” assessment of Fiat on the LARA scale. Nevertheless, we are concerned about Fiat’s high exposure to cyclical end markets (further intensified by the intended merger with Chrysler), weakened credit metrics and operational issues surrounding Chrysler and Fiat.

 

[gionmorg]

Moody’s downgrades Novasep to Caa2 outlook negative
“Hold” the NOVASP 9.625% at a mid price of 59 or a Z-spread of 1,997 bps
Novasep will report FY 2010 results tomorrow. The company already provided guidance for revenues of above EUR 300 mn and an adjusted EBITDA of around EUR 55 mn, capex of EUR 15-16 mn and a cash position of EUR 40 mn. Given the very challenging market environment we expect a slight miss and estimate an EBITDA of around EUR 52 mn and a net leverage of around 7x. More importantly, we expect some colour on the recently announced potential financial restructuring of the company. At this stage, we are not sure whether Novasep’s current debt load is sustainable and believe the company is indeed well advised to look for strategic alternatives as it appears that Novasep is unable to halt the slide in its EBITDA. However, given the recent major contract extensions, visibility should improve. One short term fix would be a super senior facility provided by a special situations funds or its sponsor Gilde, yet this would not resolve Novasep’s fundamental issues, including a too high leverage. Therefore, we believe a more reasonable approach would be an equity injection and/or a debt exchange in which note holders would have to partially write down their engagement. While Gilde has been supportive so far, it is questionable whether it will inject further equity without asking for some concessions from bond holders. Nevertheless we view the fact that only very limited debt ranks ahead of bondholders (EUR 31.3 mn of finance leases) as favourable. In our view, a distressed EV to EBITDA for Novasep should be at around 5x-5.5x, well below current leverage. While the yield on its bonds appears tempting, we do not recommend to get engaged at this stage as a risk of a debt write-down and the long term operational challenges remain. We will reassess our recommendation after tomorrow’s conference call and keep our “Very High Risk” on the LARA scale for now.

 

[fabriziof]

Moody’s downgrades Novasep to Caa2 outlook negative
“Hold” the NOVASP 9.625% at a mid price of 59 or a Z-spread of 1,997 bps
Novasep will report FY 2010 results tomorrow. The company already provided guidance for revenues of above EUR 300 mn and an adjusted EBITDA of around EUR 55 mn, capex of EUR 15-16 mn and a cash position of EUR 40 mn. Given the very challenging market environment we expect a slight miss and estimate an EBITDA of around EUR 52 mn and a net leverage of around 7x. More importantly, we expect some colour on the recently announced potential financial restructuring of the company. At this stage, we are not sure whether Novasep’s current debt load is sustainable and believe the company is indeed well advised to look for strategic alternatives as it appears that Novasep is unable to halt the slide in its EBITDA. However, given the recent major contract extensions, visibility should improve. One short term fix would be a super senior facility provided by a special situations funds or its sponsor Gilde, yet this would not resolve Novasep’s fundamental issues, including a too high leverage. Therefore, we believe a more reasonable approach would be an equity injection and/or a debt exchange in which note holders would have to partially write down their engagement. While Gilde has been supportive so far, it is questionable whether it will inject further equity without asking for some concessions from bond holders. Nevertheless we view the fact that only very limited debt ranks ahead of bondholders (EUR 31.3 mn of finance leases) as favourable. In our view, a distressed EV to EBITDA for Novasep should be at around 5x-5.5x, well below current leverage. While the yield on its bonds appears tempting, we do not recommend to get engaged at this stage as a risk of a debt write-down and the long term operational challenges remain. We will reassess our recommendation after tomorrow’s conference call and keep our “Very High Risk” on the LARA scale for now.

il downgrade di moody's risale in realtà al 30 marzo

 

[qquebec]

Novasep FY2010

Ecco i risultati del 2010

 

[fabriziof]

Ecco i risultati del 2010

grazie ,oggi c'è la conference vediamo che dicono