Journal to portfolio afterlife

[portfolioafterlife]

Ricordatevi che non regalano nulla

Trade Republic lancia oggi in Italia il trading di criptovalute - ANSA.it

www.ansa.it

 

[portfolioafterlife]

La dispersione per decili del P/E delle aziende americane è molto ampia rispetto allo storico.

The Best Investment for This Coming Crazy Year

Stocks are soaring. The pandemic is raging. The Fed may be hiking. Here’s how to keep a steady hand amid the madness.

www.wsj.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

L'investimento di Berkshire Hathaway in Apple è stato molto redditizio, l'elevata posizione attuale del 40% nel proprio portafoglio azionario è dovuta alla crescita del titolo degli ultimi anni.
Per non parlare dei dividendi incassati.

Other than Apple's giant appreciation in share price, it has also been a lucrative bet for Berkshire because of its hefty payouts. Berkshire has enjoyed regular dividends, averaging about $775 million annually.

Warren Buffett makes over $120 billion on Apple's rise to $3 trillion, among his best bets ever

The 5% Apple stake Berkshire Hathaway acquired in 2018 for $36 billion is now worth more than $160 billion as the tech giant hit the $3 trillion milestone.

www.cnbc.com

Però ricordiamo anche che... hanno altri business più importanti.

Warren Buffett told CNBC on Monday that Berkshire Hathaway's "third-largest business," after its insurance and railroad interests, is its stake in Apple.

Warren Buffett calls Apple 'probably the best business I know in the world'

Warren Buffett told CNBC that Berkshire Hathaway's "third-largest business," after its insurance and railroad interests, is its stake in Apple.

www.cnbc.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Le valutazioni contano per impostare il portafoglio, sapendo che non necessariamente si raccolgono immediatamente i frutti, e le valutazioni possono raggiungere valori ancora più estremi rispetto a quando si assume una certa posizione. Essere contrarian è psicologicamente una sfida.

While higher valuations do forecast lower future expected returns, that doesn’t mean you can use that information to time markets. And you should not try to do so, as the evidence shows such efforts are likely to fail. This doesn’t mean, however, that the information has no value. You should use valuations to provide estimates of returns so you can determine how much equity risk you need to take in your portfolio to have a good chance of achieving your financial goals. However, expected returns should only be treated as the mean of a potentially wide dispersion of outcomes. Your plan should address any of these outcomes, good or bad.

Questo dovrebbe essere noto a tutti, dovrebbe. La gestione attiva, dopo i costi applicati, sottoperforma rispetto all'index investing.

Despite an overwhelming amount of academic research demonstrating that passive investing is more likely to allow you to achieve your most important financial goals, the majority of individual investor assets are still held in active funds. Last year was another in which the large majority of active funds underperformed the markets.

La strategia performance chasing, tanto cara a molti, non è molto efficace.

The historical evidence demonstrates that individual investors are performance chasers—they buy yesterday’s winners (after the great performance) and sell yesterday’s losers (after the loss has already been incurred). This causes investors to buy high and sell low—not exactly a recipe for investment success. As I wrote in my book “The Quest for Alpha,” this behavior explains the findings from studies that show investors can actually underperform the very mutual funds in which they invest.

In other words, the strongest performance came when assets were just a small fraction of what they were when the fund had its worst performance. It is often the case that the mistake of recency leads to investor returns that are below the reported returns of the funds in which they invest.

Il rendimento mwrr di un investitore non ha nulla a che vedere con il rendimento twrr di un fondo di investimento.

https://www.rbcgam.com/documents/en/articles/understanding-mutual-fund-rates-of-return.pdf

Sull'oro non ho raccolto i frutti che speravo come inflation hedge. Ma non è detta ancora l'ultima parola, inoltre credo ancora che l'oro sia una assicurazione durante i crash azionari di lunga durata.

The conclusion you should draw is that while gold might protect against inflation in the very long run, 10 years or even 20 years is not the long run. Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey, authors of the 2015 study “The Golden Constant,” examined the historical evidence on gold as an inflation hedge and concluded: “While gold might protect against inflation in the very long run, 10 years is not the long run. In the shorter run, gold is a volatile investment which is capable and likely to overshoot or undershoot any notion of fair value.”

La diversificazione azionaria ha ancora un suo perchè (e io aggiungerei non solo geografica ma anche settoriale). Però nessuno ha la sfera di cristallo per fare market timing, si possono raccogliere frutti solo col ribilanciamento secondo me.

There were only three years of the 21 when the difference in returns between the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI EAFE Index was less than 5 percentage points. On the other hand, there were 14 years when it was at least 8 percentage points. There were also only three years when the return on the S&P 500 Index was within 10 percentage points of the return of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. There were eight years when it was at least 20 percentage points and four when it was at least 30 percentage points. The largest gap was more than 53 percentage points. The data presents powerful evidence that the investment world is far from flat and that there are still significant benefits in international diversification.

Investment lessons the markets taught in 2021 (Part 1) | TEBI

Every year the financial markets teach us investment lessons. Here are five important lessons they taught investors in 2021.

www.evidenceinvestor.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Questo video ci ricorda come la vita non è un foglio excel. Il comportamento e le emozioni dell'uomo vanno conciliate con i numeri. Il foglio excel è come le briglie, poi si tratta di capire per ciascuno di noi quali tra la razionalità e le emozioni fa la parte del cavallo (o del cavallerizzo).

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Prodotti molto volatili... fmqq si aggiuge a emqq.

News

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Il mio fondo pensione Cometa Reddito chude il 2021 a +3,78%.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Rob Arnott aveva metà del proprio portafoglio in azionario emergenti, intervista di giugno '21.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Questo video analizza il portafoglio azionario di berkshire hathaway, ma ancora una volta si sottostima quanto le revenues della holding arrivano da importanti partecipazioni dirette in altri settori: assicurazioni, energia, ferrovie.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

In Crescat hanno una convinzione molto forte.

Starting from historically stretched valuations, inflation is the catalyst that can and should both crush price-to-earnings multiples and lead to rising interest rates. It can be especially destructive to overpriced large cap growth and mega-cap tech stocks.

As an overarching macro investment theme at Crescat today, we have been preparing for the Great Rotation. We believe this theme is a tectonic shift out of hyper-overvalued, long-duration financial assets and into a narrower undervalued segment of the market that is focused on the tangible assets at the core of the global economy. It is a collision of macro worldviews and investment flows with one much larger crowded pool of assets ready to swamp the other tiny one to only further ignite the inflationary catalyst, a feedback loop of monumental proportion.

December Performance Estimates

The Year of the Great Rotation Welcome to 2022. More than ever, we believe it is time to get out with the old and in with the new. At Crescat, we believe investors today face…

www.crescat.net