Journal to portfolio afterlife

[portfolioafterlife]

Questo video fa capire come la valutazione di una crypto con una corretta due diligence richieda competenza e tempo, e ancora più accortezza del fare stock picking visto che ci muoviamo in una jungla non regolamentata dove siamo prede e non predatori.
Per questo ho preferito degli strumenti indicizzati, sapendo però che i difetti degli indici a capitalizzazione vengono ancora più enfatizzati nel mondo crypto.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Negli ultimi 5 anni c'è stata una certa correlazione tra web2 (public software companies) e web3 (btc, eth), ma per un periodo è stata anche negativa.

How Correlated are the Web 2 and Web 3 Software Markets? by @ttunguz

In the last few weeks, public software company multiples have halved. As have cryptocoins. Solana and Etherum followed Snowflake and Elastic downwards. So much for the Santa Claus rally. Both declines seem to have been catalyzed by the Fed’s intention to hike the Fed Funds rate three to four...

tomtunguz.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Ci sono sempre buoni motivi per essere ottimisti e buoni motivi per essere pessimisti sui mercati azionari. Ma il mondo va avanti e l'economia di solito cresce.

Valutazione del mercato cinese di Franklin Templeton Investments.

Is Now The Time To Consider Chinese Equities?

2021 was a year of strong global growth and outsized equity returns, it's easy to point to China as a notable laggard.

seekingalpha.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

I risultati degli hedge funds sono stati scadenti negli ultimi 10 anni e pessimi nel 2021 (rispetto alle altre asset class).

The evidence demonstrates that the market has been persistently teaching investors that, on average, the only objective hedge funds have achieved is transferring assets from investors to the fund sponsors.

La correlazione bond-equity non è sempre favorevole, ne avevo già scritto.

The lesson is that correlations are time varying. And given the historically high valuations of stocks and the historically low level of interest rates, investors should not lose sight of the fact that there have been times when longer-term bonds have not provided shelter from the storm-rocking equities.

La parte emozionale è più pericolosa nella gestione del portafoglio di eventuali asset allocation strategiche non ottimali.

We often make mistakes because we are unaware that our decisions are being influenced by our beliefs and biases. The first step to eliminating, or at least minimising, such mistakes is to become aware of how our choices are impacted by our views, and how those views can influence outcomes.

La diversificazione è un bene anche se alle volte i media vi faranno dubitare delle vostre scelte.

Everyone is familiar with the benefits of diversification. It’s been called the only free lunch in investing because, done properly, it reduces risk without reducing expected returns. However, once you diversify beyond a popular index such as the S&P 500, you must accept the fact that you will almost certainly be faced with periods (even long ones) when a popular benchmark index, reported by the media on a daily basis, outperforms your more diversified portfolio. The noise of the media will then test your ability to adhere to your strategy.

L'investitore migliore non è quello che impara dai propri errori ma anche da quelli degli altri.

Even smart people make mistakes. What differentiates them from fools is that they don’t repeat them, expecting different outcomes.

Investment lessons the markets taught in 2021 (Part 2) | TEBI

This week, LARRY SWEDROE IS looking at ten investment lessons the financial markets have taught us over the last 12 months. We brought you the first five lessons on Tuesday. Here are the second five. And if you would like to hear Larry discussing these investment lessons, listen to the latest...

www.evidenceinvestor.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Due aspetti del mondo crypto mi perplimono:
- il consumo energetico, ma su questo fronte i nuovi sviluppi software stanno cercando di mettere una pezza
- la tracciabilità perenne dei dati della blockchain ne aumenta progressivamente in modo esponenziale la dimensione

Blockchain Size: Everything You Need To Know

Blockchain is known to revolutionize the world around us. After all, it changes how we define the process, store data, and explore the security of a

101blockchains.com

Quando si fanno i confronti energetici andrebbero però fatti per bene. L'infrastruttura del bitcoin ha una sua struttura e i suoi attori. Ma anche il dollaro ha una sua infrastruttura, quando fate una transazione in dollari la catena di attori con consumo energetico è molto lunga (es. livello micro esercente per la transazione al dettaglio, circuito della carta di credito, linea internet, server, banca per l'addebito dell'estratto conto, a livello macro fed, ministero del tesoro, ecc.). Se poi consideriamo la catena completa delle risorse (impronta ambientale) dalla raccolta di materie prime, lavorazione, costruzione dell'hardware, smaltimento dell'hardware, rifuiti, ecc. il raffronto diventa ancora più complicato.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Index Funds: The 12-Step Recovery Program for Active Investors

Mark Hebner is on a mission to change the way the world invests – by replacing speculation with an education. This small, compact, 5” x 7”, 318-page handbook on intelligent investing addresses the financial behaviors of investors, the pitfalls of active investing, and the benefits of passive investing with index funds. Complete with a foreword by Harry Markowitz, this is a quick, intelligent read and arguably the most artistic book ever written on investing.

Index Funds: The 12-Step Recovery Program for Active Investors - Index Fund Advisors, Inc.

This small, compact, 5x7, 318-page handbook on intelligent investing addresses the financial behaviors of investors, the pitfalls of active investing, and the benefits of passive investing with index funds.

www.ifa.com

Download free:

https://www.ifa.com/pdfs/index-funds-12-step-recovery-program-for-active-investors.pdf

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Questo articolo è un po' una provocazione.

Want Double-Digit Returns? Hold Cash. - RIA

Think of cash as your friend. Long-term, cash loses to inflation but there are smart ways to handle and disperse your valuable dollars.

realinvestmentadvice.com

La liquidità è una asset class, il cui ruolo è diverso in accumulazione e in decumulo.
In decumulo rappresenta la linfa vitale per le spese, ed è tanto più importante quando le spese eccedono le entrate.
Io in accumulazione ho sempre tenuto la liquidità bassa e anche adesso che sono in decumulo in media non vado mai oltre il 5%.
Con i tassi storicamente ai minimi termini si può usare un fido credit lombard dando in garanzia una parte dei propri titoli, così come si può fare un mutuo per l'acquisto di un immobile anziché smobilitare i propri asset finanziari. La leva finanziaria non è necessariamente un azzardo, se usata in questo modo.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

La tesi secondo la quale i selloff dei mercati saranno repentini mi trova d'accordo, e ne abbiamo avuto due esempi a dicembre 2018 e marzo 2020 sull' S&P500.

S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart

Interactive chart of the S&P 500 stock market index since 1927. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

www.macrotrends.net

E' una sensazione ovviamente, non un fatto, e con questo non sto dicendo che credo in un selloff a breve termine. E non necessariamente le successive riprese dei mercati azionari saranno altrettanto rapide come abbiamo visto negli ultimi due episodi.

Questo articolo si focalizza sugli index funds sottolineando il peccato originale degli indici pesati per capitalizzazione, ma va detto che anche i fondi di investimento attivi di solito sono concentrati su pochi titoli e in alcuni casi il sovrappeso sui titoli più capitalizzati viene ancora più enfatizzato.

"Passive ETFs" Are Hiding The Bear Market - RIA

Below the surface there are numerous companies down 40-50% in value. However, the devastation is being hidden by passive ETFs.

realinvestmentadvice.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink once told a story about having dinner with the manager of one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds.
The fund’s objectives, the manager said, were generational.
“So how do you measure performance?” Fink asked.
“Quarterly,” said the manager.
The gap between ideals and reality.

President Clinton noted in his January 2000 State of the Union speech:

We begin the new century with over 20 million new jobs; the fastest economic growth in more than 30 years; the lowest unemployment rates in 30 years; the lowest poverty rates in 20 years; the lowest African-American and Hispanic unemployment rates on record; the first back-to-back surpluses in 42 years; and next month, America will achieve the longest period of economic growth in our entire history.

That wasn’t an exaggeration. But it marked the beginning of the worst decade for the stock market in modern times.

In January 2010, President Obama noted in his State of the Union speech:

One in 10 Americans still cannot find work. Many businesses have shuttered. Home values have declined. Small towns and rural communities have been hit especially hard. And for those who’d already known poverty, life has become that much harder.

That wasn’t an exaggeration. But it marked the beginning of one of the best periods for the stock market in modern times.

What A World (A few Stories)

A few short stories…

www.collaborativefund.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

One of the things that made the March 2000-October 2002 period so pernicious was that the recoveries that followed every single drop subsequently failed. Starting in December 1999, there were drops of 15.5%, 10.7%, 31.6%, 21%, 13.9%, 26.8%, 27.1%, 28.2%, 48.9%, 44.8%, and 50%. Each one of these moves lower led to buyers jumping in to take advantage of discounts, only to see the a subsequent rally that failed. New lower lows occurred, with fewer dip buyers each time. This is how we eventually work our way towards what technicians call a sellers’ exhaustion.

Living Through a Crash - The Big Picture

To hear an audio spoken word version of this post, click here. My colleague Michael Batnick wrote a great post yesterday discussing how bear markets typically wipe out years’ worth of gains. (Before anyone leaps to an unfounded conclusion, the title of this post refers to the 2000-02 crash...

ritholtz.com