The bottom line is this lofty extraordinarily-overbought US dollar is super-bullish for gold. The Fed’s most-extreme hawkish pivot ever ignited a monster dollar rally in recent months. That unleashed massive gold-futures selling, bludgeoning the yellow metal into a sharp correction. But that overcrowded long-dollar trade is already reversing after this week’s huge 75-basis-point rate hike, which marked peak Fed hawkishness.
With extreme Fed tightening already slamming the stock markets into a new bear, Fed officials can’t risk further escalation. They need to back off their accelerating-rate-hikes jawboning or it will trigger a severe recession that will be blamed on the Fed. That coupled with exhausted dollar buying will force it to mean revert lower, unleashing big gold-futures buying to normalize specs’ positioning which will fuel a new gold upleg.