Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Utilities Europa III (gennaio - dicembre 2010)
- Creatore Discussione Alobar
- Data di Inizio
Imark
Forumer storico
Fitch rivede a stabile da negativo l'outlook di RWE. La riduzione del capex ed insieme una performance migliore delle attese hanno consentito di evitare una crescita del leverage che riducesse la flessibilità finanziaria di RWE portandola su livelli di rischio per il rating. Pur in forte crescita su base annua, il leverage si è infatti fermato a quota 1,6x (da 0,6x del 2008).
interessanti i commenti sull'acquisizione di Essent in Olanda, vista tendenzialmente con favore nonostante la quota di proventi generati da attività regolate sia calata di conseguenza dal 31% al 25%.
Fortissima e priva di problematicità di sorta la posizione di liquidità detenuta dalla utility tedesca.
Fitch Affirms RWE at 'A+'; Outlook Revised to Stable
15 Feb 2010 5:07 AM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-London/Warsaw/Milan-15 February 2010: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed RWE AG's (RWE) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A+', senior unsecured rating at 'AA-', and Short-term IDR at 'F1'. Fitch has simultaneously revised the Outlook on the Long-term IDR to Stable from Negative.
The Outlook revision is driven by RWE's slower-than-expected increase in leverage as a result of lower investments executed over the last 18 months as well as RWE's operating resilience to the economic downturn.
The acquisition of Essent in the Netherlands together with capex spending and dividend payments of EUR2.4bn resulted in a deterioration of RWE's credit metrics in FY09: Fitch estimates that RWE's pro forma consolidated net debt/EBITDA at year-end 2009 (YE09), including the full-year EBITDA of Essent, has increased to 1.6x from 0.6x at YE08.
The agency anticipates that the company's credit metrics may deteriorate slightly further during 2010-2011, but they are likely to remain commensurate with the current rating level.
RWE's total debt at end-September 2009 increased to EUR22.1bn from EUR13.5bn at YE08. The company benefits from a long debt maturity profile spread out to 2039, with only EUR3.9bn of maturities in the period 2010-2012.
RWE's operating performance remains fairly resilient against the current recessionary environment, with EBITDA of EUR7bn in 9M09 and a robust outlook for the full period FY09.
Despite a 7% contraction in Germany's energy demand, and lower energy prices in FY09, RWE maintained its profitability margins due to a flexible generation portfolio, diversified customer base, and a comprehensive hedging strategy.
Increased financial costs due to higher outstanding debt and the up-front costs of the Essent acquisition loan weakened interest coverage ratios in Q309.
Fitch notes that RWE's business profile has been strengthened by the Essent acquisition because of increased geographical diversification, reducing its dependence on the German energy market.
Furthermore, the agency believes that RWE's expertise gained on the Dutch market could result in more effective integration measures. However, its proportion of regulated activities will decrease to around one quarter of consolidated earnings, from 31% in FY08, as the regulated assets have been carved out of the transaction, potentially negatively affecting cash flow stability.
Furthermore, RWE's operating cash flows will be under pressure because of larger exposure to CO2 costs and extended outages of the company's nuclear power plants. Fitch will monitor RWE's measures to reduce its CO2 exposure by 2012.
RWE's liquidity position remains strong: in addition to cash and marketable securities totalling EUR9.4bn at Q309, RWE benefits from a fully available EUR4bn bank facility that expires in October 2011. RWE's EUR3.6bn commercial paper programme (EUR1.5bn drawn) and EUR30bn debt issuance programme (EUR16.4bn drawn) provide extra financial flexibility.
interessanti i commenti sull'acquisizione di Essent in Olanda, vista tendenzialmente con favore nonostante la quota di proventi generati da attività regolate sia calata di conseguenza dal 31% al 25%.
Fortissima e priva di problematicità di sorta la posizione di liquidità detenuta dalla utility tedesca.
Fitch Affirms RWE at 'A+'; Outlook Revised to Stable
15 Feb 2010 5:07 AM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-London/Warsaw/Milan-15 February 2010: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed RWE AG's (RWE) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A+', senior unsecured rating at 'AA-', and Short-term IDR at 'F1'. Fitch has simultaneously revised the Outlook on the Long-term IDR to Stable from Negative.
The Outlook revision is driven by RWE's slower-than-expected increase in leverage as a result of lower investments executed over the last 18 months as well as RWE's operating resilience to the economic downturn.
The acquisition of Essent in the Netherlands together with capex spending and dividend payments of EUR2.4bn resulted in a deterioration of RWE's credit metrics in FY09: Fitch estimates that RWE's pro forma consolidated net debt/EBITDA at year-end 2009 (YE09), including the full-year EBITDA of Essent, has increased to 1.6x from 0.6x at YE08.
The agency anticipates that the company's credit metrics may deteriorate slightly further during 2010-2011, but they are likely to remain commensurate with the current rating level.
RWE's total debt at end-September 2009 increased to EUR22.1bn from EUR13.5bn at YE08. The company benefits from a long debt maturity profile spread out to 2039, with only EUR3.9bn of maturities in the period 2010-2012.
RWE's operating performance remains fairly resilient against the current recessionary environment, with EBITDA of EUR7bn in 9M09 and a robust outlook for the full period FY09.
Despite a 7% contraction in Germany's energy demand, and lower energy prices in FY09, RWE maintained its profitability margins due to a flexible generation portfolio, diversified customer base, and a comprehensive hedging strategy.
Increased financial costs due to higher outstanding debt and the up-front costs of the Essent acquisition loan weakened interest coverage ratios in Q309.
Fitch notes that RWE's business profile has been strengthened by the Essent acquisition because of increased geographical diversification, reducing its dependence on the German energy market.
Furthermore, the agency believes that RWE's expertise gained on the Dutch market could result in more effective integration measures. However, its proportion of regulated activities will decrease to around one quarter of consolidated earnings, from 31% in FY08, as the regulated assets have been carved out of the transaction, potentially negatively affecting cash flow stability.
Furthermore, RWE's operating cash flows will be under pressure because of larger exposure to CO2 costs and extended outages of the company's nuclear power plants. Fitch will monitor RWE's measures to reduce its CO2 exposure by 2012.
RWE's liquidity position remains strong: in addition to cash and marketable securities totalling EUR9.4bn at Q309, RWE benefits from a fully available EUR4bn bank facility that expires in October 2011. RWE's EUR3.6bn commercial paper programme (EUR1.5bn drawn) and EUR30bn debt issuance programme (EUR16.4bn drawn) provide extra financial flexibility.
Imark
Forumer storico
Un'altra utility da tenere d'occhio in prospettiva per talune emissioni interessanti, fra cui un recente dedcennale in euro, è la ceca CEZ... basso leverage ed obiettivi futuri compatibili con la conservazione di un rating di classe A, eccellenti livelli di profittevolezza con un EBITDA margin del 51% nel 2009 e ottima generazione di cassa, come tutte le utilities energetiche...
Lo stato ceco controlla circa il 70% del capitale, sebbene Fitch non incorpori alcun rating uplift in funzione di eventuale supporto pubblico da attendersi in caso di difficoltà di CEZ.
la posizione di liquidità detenuta è attualmente debole rispetto alle scadenze del debito corto, ma la situazione è mitigata dal buon accesso ai mercati obbligazionari dimostrato recentemente da CEZ insieme con erogazione di nuovi finanziamenti bancari.
Fitch Affirms Czech-Based CEZ at 'A-'; Outlook Stable
15 Feb 2010 10:02 AM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-London/Warsaw-15 February 2010: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Czech Republic-based CEZ a.s.'s (CEZ) Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A-' and its Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F2'. The Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Stable. Fitch has also affirmed CEZ's senior unsecured ratings and a bond issue of its subsidiary, CEZ Finance BV, at 'A'.
The rating affirmation reflects CEZ's strong business profile which is underpinned by the group's leading position and vertical integration in the Czech power market, its main market. CEZ has low financial leverage, with net debt to last-12-months EBITDA of 1.2x at end-September 2009.
Management plans to optimise the company's capital structure by increasing debt in coming years to fund an enhanced capital expenditure programme and regional acquisitions. However, CEZ's medium-term goal is for net debt/EBITDA not to exceed 2.0x-2.5x. This limit is commensurate with a 'A-' rating, and this is reflected in the Stable Outlook.
Following several transactions already completed or announced in 2009, Fitch does not believe that CEZ has significant headroom for new acquisitions at the current rating level if it is to stay within management's upper end leverage target of 2.5x.
The agency projects that CEZ's leverage will be close to target levels by 2012 due to negative free cash flow after dividends for 2009-2012, as a result of the enhanced capex plan (average annual capex of about CZK68bn for 2009-2012, up from CZK39bn in 2007-2008).
Fitch nonetheless recognises that CEZ has flexibility in the capex plan as some projects can be deferred should leverage be at risk of exceeding the target, for example due to a one-off sizeable acquisition.
The ratings further capture the company's high EBITDA margin of 51% in 9M09, compared with other European utilities rated by Fitch.
However, this benefit is mitigated by a lower share of more predictable, regulated income from distribution in CEZ's total EBITDA compared to western European peers. This results in a higher exposure to market conditions in power generation, the key business segment for CEZ, than its peers.
Forward hedging policies are for three years, but average 12-18 months which is slightly shorter than the integrated utility average, but fuel integration and market share remain positive mitigants. The agency expects that weaker industry conditions - in particular lower forward wholesale power prices both in the Czech Republic and for exports to other countries in the region - will have a moderate negative impact on funds from operations (FFO) in 2010, with an expected decline of up to 10% as forward hedging of over 95% of generation for 2010, at EUR55/MWh, provides some stability of earnings.
The company is 69.4%-owned by the Czech state. While Fitch does not incorporate any uplift for state support in CEZ's ratings, it recognises that its ownership may help to mitigate some potential refinancing risks.
The senior unsecured rating of 'A' is one notch higher than CEZ's Long-term IDR, in line with Fitch's methodology for incorporating above-average recovery prospects for debt instruments of European vertically-integrated power utilities.
The company had a relatively weak liquidity position at end-September 2009: short-term debt of CZK47bn against CZK18bn of cash and unused committed long-term loan facilities of CZK10bn. The company also had unused committed short-term bank lines of CZK23bn at this date.
The refinancing risk is mitigated by the company's demonstrated access to the debt markets as well as its ownership and business profile. The liquidity position has improved since September 2009 due to the issuance of medium- and long-term bonds and new bank loans totalling about CZK35bn.
Part of the proceeds were used to repay a one-year bank loan of EUR550m (CZK14bn) raised to fund the purchase of a 7.6% stake in Hungary's oil and gas company MOL within the JV agreement with the Hungarian company to build gas-fired power plants.
Lo stato ceco controlla circa il 70% del capitale, sebbene Fitch non incorpori alcun rating uplift in funzione di eventuale supporto pubblico da attendersi in caso di difficoltà di CEZ.
la posizione di liquidità detenuta è attualmente debole rispetto alle scadenze del debito corto, ma la situazione è mitigata dal buon accesso ai mercati obbligazionari dimostrato recentemente da CEZ insieme con erogazione di nuovi finanziamenti bancari.
Fitch Affirms Czech-Based CEZ at 'A-'; Outlook Stable
15 Feb 2010 10:02 AM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-London/Warsaw-15 February 2010: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Czech Republic-based CEZ a.s.'s (CEZ) Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A-' and its Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F2'. The Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Stable. Fitch has also affirmed CEZ's senior unsecured ratings and a bond issue of its subsidiary, CEZ Finance BV, at 'A'.
The rating affirmation reflects CEZ's strong business profile which is underpinned by the group's leading position and vertical integration in the Czech power market, its main market. CEZ has low financial leverage, with net debt to last-12-months EBITDA of 1.2x at end-September 2009.
Management plans to optimise the company's capital structure by increasing debt in coming years to fund an enhanced capital expenditure programme and regional acquisitions. However, CEZ's medium-term goal is for net debt/EBITDA not to exceed 2.0x-2.5x. This limit is commensurate with a 'A-' rating, and this is reflected in the Stable Outlook.
Following several transactions already completed or announced in 2009, Fitch does not believe that CEZ has significant headroom for new acquisitions at the current rating level if it is to stay within management's upper end leverage target of 2.5x.
The agency projects that CEZ's leverage will be close to target levels by 2012 due to negative free cash flow after dividends for 2009-2012, as a result of the enhanced capex plan (average annual capex of about CZK68bn for 2009-2012, up from CZK39bn in 2007-2008).
Fitch nonetheless recognises that CEZ has flexibility in the capex plan as some projects can be deferred should leverage be at risk of exceeding the target, for example due to a one-off sizeable acquisition.
The ratings further capture the company's high EBITDA margin of 51% in 9M09, compared with other European utilities rated by Fitch.
However, this benefit is mitigated by a lower share of more predictable, regulated income from distribution in CEZ's total EBITDA compared to western European peers. This results in a higher exposure to market conditions in power generation, the key business segment for CEZ, than its peers.
Forward hedging policies are for three years, but average 12-18 months which is slightly shorter than the integrated utility average, but fuel integration and market share remain positive mitigants. The agency expects that weaker industry conditions - in particular lower forward wholesale power prices both in the Czech Republic and for exports to other countries in the region - will have a moderate negative impact on funds from operations (FFO) in 2010, with an expected decline of up to 10% as forward hedging of over 95% of generation for 2010, at EUR55/MWh, provides some stability of earnings.
The company is 69.4%-owned by the Czech state. While Fitch does not incorporate any uplift for state support in CEZ's ratings, it recognises that its ownership may help to mitigate some potential refinancing risks.
The senior unsecured rating of 'A' is one notch higher than CEZ's Long-term IDR, in line with Fitch's methodology for incorporating above-average recovery prospects for debt instruments of European vertically-integrated power utilities.
The company had a relatively weak liquidity position at end-September 2009: short-term debt of CZK47bn against CZK18bn of cash and unused committed long-term loan facilities of CZK10bn. The company also had unused committed short-term bank lines of CZK23bn at this date.
The refinancing risk is mitigated by the company's demonstrated access to the debt markets as well as its ownership and business profile. The liquidity position has improved since September 2009 due to the issuance of medium- and long-term bonds and new bank loans totalling about CZK35bn.
Part of the proceeds were used to repay a one-year bank loan of EUR550m (CZK14bn) raised to fund the purchase of a 7.6% stake in Hungary's oil and gas company MOL within the JV agreement with the Hungarian company to build gas-fired power plants.
Alobar
So di non sapere...
Aggiornamento monitor bond Utilities (gruppo di lavoro: Alobar, Imark)
AVVERTENZE
E' sempre grazie a Massimo S. che si rendono disponibili, per i bond illiquidi, i prezzi realizzati sui mercati professionali: fra quelli in tabella, sono di fonte Xtrakter (ex ICMA) i prezzi dei seguenti titoli:
RWE 2033
Vattenfall 2018
GDF 2012, 2015, 2023
Iberdrola 02/2013, 2015, 2018
Ned Gas 2016
Per il bond:
Nederlandse Gasunie 2021 (BBML)
si è reso necessario riprendere il prezzo Bloomberg (BBML).
I prezzi Xtrakter e Bloomberg risalgono a venerdì scorso.
Trovate il file allegato al primo messaggio del thread;
La tabella dei prezzi, divisa in tre parti. Parte prima:
AVVERTENZE
E' sempre grazie a Massimo S. che si rendono disponibili, per i bond illiquidi, i prezzi realizzati sui mercati professionali: fra quelli in tabella, sono di fonte Xtrakter (ex ICMA) i prezzi dei seguenti titoli:
RWE 2033
Vattenfall 2018
GDF 2012, 2015, 2023
Iberdrola 02/2013, 2015, 2018
Ned Gas 2016
Per il bond:
Nederlandse Gasunie 2021 (BBML)
si è reso necessario riprendere il prezzo Bloomberg (BBML).
I prezzi Xtrakter e Bloomberg risalgono a venerdì scorso.
Trovate il file allegato al primo messaggio del thread;
La tabella dei prezzi, divisa in tre parti. Parte prima:
