Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Utilities Europa III (gennaio - dicembre 2010) (1 Viewer)
- Creatore Discussione Alobar
- Data di Inizio
Imark
Forumer storico
La tedesca EWE, della quale abbiamo dato informazione in passato circa la complessa strategia di acquisizioni e dismissioni in atto, che coinvolgono anche EnBW, altra utility i cui bond sono anch'essi nel monitor, è stata tolta da S&P dal creditwatch negative e confermata nel rating corrente (A-) seppure con outlook portato a negativo.
Nel breve termine, la conservazione del rating dipende dalla dismissione senza reinvestimento del ricavato della utility VNG , operante nell'ex Germania Est, entro il 2011.
Da tale operazione dalla quale S&P fa dipendendere la conservazione di una capacità di generazione di cassa rapportata al debito (FFO/debt) in linea con il rating attuale.
Nel medio termine, un downgrade appare possibile in conseguenza di una situazione che vedere ridursi la profittevolezza del business regolamentato (principalmente le attività distributive nel mercato domestico) e EWE esporsi sempre di più su mercati emergenti, nel settore della generazione, piuttosto che in attività estranee al core business di utility energetica (telefonia ed IT), che tutte implicano per S&P un incremento del profilo di rischio legato alle attività di business.
German Utility EWE 'A-' Rating Affirmed Following SWB Acquisition; Off CreditWatch Negative; Outlook Negative
-- We have assessed the combined effect of the recent capital increase and share sale to EnBW, and the acquisition of 100% less one share of SWB, on EWE's business and financial risk profiles.
-- We are affirming our 'A-' long-term corporate credit rating on the German utility, and removing the rating from CreditWatch. -- The negative outlook reflects our view that EWE may find it difficult to maintain credit measures consistent with the rating, in the context of rising business risks.
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) March 29, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it affirmed its 'A-' long-term corporate credit rating and senior unsecured debt ratings on German utility EWE AG. At the same, we removed the ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Apr. 17, 2009. The outlook on the corporate credit rating is negative.
"The rating actions follow a review of the effects of three major corporate transactions on EWE's business and financial risk profiles," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Mark Davidson.
First, the company announced a capital increase and share sale to German utility EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG (EnBW; A-/Negative/A-2). This transaction provided EWE with a cash inflow of €1.28 billion, and resulted in EnBW owning 26% of EWE's shares.
Second, EWE acquired 100% of German utility Stadtwerke Bremen AG (SWB) for a total consideration of €1.38 billion, comprising a cash payment of €680 million, and €700 million of acquired debt.
EWE expects that the third transaction--a sale to EnBW of its 47.9% shareholding holding in Verbundnetz Gas AG (VNG; not rated), a gas wholesale company based in eastern Germany€-will occur in 2010 or 2011. In our view, a successful sale of VNG is critical to EWE's rating, because the acquisition of SWB has broadly offset the capital increase and share sale to EnBW in terms of financial risk, against the backdrop of rising business risk.
To offset limited growth and increasing competition in its home service territory, EWE is expanding its activities in areas that we consider higher-risk, such as Turkey and Poland, and in the intensely competitive information technology (IT) and telecommunications segments. In the regulated business, we believe that the introduction of incentive-based regulation will result in ongoing pressure on earnings, although EWE appears well placed relative to peers due to its high efficiency.
In addition, EWE procures most of its electricity requirements under a long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) with E.ON AG (A/Stable/A-1). If the contract is cancelled, this could increase both business and financial risk for EWE. If the sale of VNG succeeds, we believe that EWE's adjusted funds from operations (FFO) to debt will exceed 25%, assuming that the proceeds from the sale are not reinvested.
If the sale does not proceed, we expect the company's adjusted FFO to debt to be about 20%, which we consider weak for the rating. "The negative outlook reflects our opinion that EWE may find it difficult to maintain debt coverage measures that we view as consistent with the rating over the medium term," said Mr. Davidson. We could maintain the rating if EWE were able to maintain adjusted FFO to debt at about 25%, assuming its business risk remains relatively unchanged. This ratio could be achieved if the sale of VNG proceeds as expected, and if the proceeds from the sale are not materially reinvested.
If EWE were able to demonstrate that adjusted FFO to debt is likely to remain about 25% on a sustainable basis, we would likely change the outlook to stable.
Conversely, if a sale of the company's stake in VNG stake does not appear imminent by the second half of 2011-r esulting, in our view, in FFO to debt significantly below 25% over the medium term - we would consider a downgrade. The existing rating and ratio expectations assume that EWE's PPA remains in place, either with E.ON or another industrial partner. If this does not occur, we believe that EWE's financial and business risk profiles would both increase, resulting in pressure on the rating.
Nel breve termine, la conservazione del rating dipende dalla dismissione senza reinvestimento del ricavato della utility VNG , operante nell'ex Germania Est, entro il 2011.
Da tale operazione dalla quale S&P fa dipendendere la conservazione di una capacità di generazione di cassa rapportata al debito (FFO/debt) in linea con il rating attuale.
Nel medio termine, un downgrade appare possibile in conseguenza di una situazione che vedere ridursi la profittevolezza del business regolamentato (principalmente le attività distributive nel mercato domestico) e EWE esporsi sempre di più su mercati emergenti, nel settore della generazione, piuttosto che in attività estranee al core business di utility energetica (telefonia ed IT), che tutte implicano per S&P un incremento del profilo di rischio legato alle attività di business.
German Utility EWE 'A-' Rating Affirmed Following SWB Acquisition; Off CreditWatch Negative; Outlook Negative
-- We have assessed the combined effect of the recent capital increase and share sale to EnBW, and the acquisition of 100% less one share of SWB, on EWE's business and financial risk profiles.
-- We are affirming our 'A-' long-term corporate credit rating on the German utility, and removing the rating from CreditWatch. -- The negative outlook reflects our view that EWE may find it difficult to maintain credit measures consistent with the rating, in the context of rising business risks.
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) March 29, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it affirmed its 'A-' long-term corporate credit rating and senior unsecured debt ratings on German utility EWE AG. At the same, we removed the ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Apr. 17, 2009. The outlook on the corporate credit rating is negative.
"The rating actions follow a review of the effects of three major corporate transactions on EWE's business and financial risk profiles," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Mark Davidson.
First, the company announced a capital increase and share sale to German utility EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG (EnBW; A-/Negative/A-2). This transaction provided EWE with a cash inflow of €1.28 billion, and resulted in EnBW owning 26% of EWE's shares.
Second, EWE acquired 100% of German utility Stadtwerke Bremen AG (SWB) for a total consideration of €1.38 billion, comprising a cash payment of €680 million, and €700 million of acquired debt.
EWE expects that the third transaction--a sale to EnBW of its 47.9% shareholding holding in Verbundnetz Gas AG (VNG; not rated), a gas wholesale company based in eastern Germany€-will occur in 2010 or 2011. In our view, a successful sale of VNG is critical to EWE's rating, because the acquisition of SWB has broadly offset the capital increase and share sale to EnBW in terms of financial risk, against the backdrop of rising business risk.
To offset limited growth and increasing competition in its home service territory, EWE is expanding its activities in areas that we consider higher-risk, such as Turkey and Poland, and in the intensely competitive information technology (IT) and telecommunications segments. In the regulated business, we believe that the introduction of incentive-based regulation will result in ongoing pressure on earnings, although EWE appears well placed relative to peers due to its high efficiency.
In addition, EWE procures most of its electricity requirements under a long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) with E.ON AG (A/Stable/A-1). If the contract is cancelled, this could increase both business and financial risk for EWE. If the sale of VNG succeeds, we believe that EWE's adjusted funds from operations (FFO) to debt will exceed 25%, assuming that the proceeds from the sale are not reinvested.
If the sale does not proceed, we expect the company's adjusted FFO to debt to be about 20%, which we consider weak for the rating. "The negative outlook reflects our opinion that EWE may find it difficult to maintain debt coverage measures that we view as consistent with the rating over the medium term," said Mr. Davidson. We could maintain the rating if EWE were able to maintain adjusted FFO to debt at about 25%, assuming its business risk remains relatively unchanged. This ratio could be achieved if the sale of VNG proceeds as expected, and if the proceeds from the sale are not materially reinvested.
If EWE were able to demonstrate that adjusted FFO to debt is likely to remain about 25% on a sustainable basis, we would likely change the outlook to stable.
Conversely, if a sale of the company's stake in VNG stake does not appear imminent by the second half of 2011-r esulting, in our view, in FFO to debt significantly below 25% over the medium term - we would consider a downgrade. The existing rating and ratio expectations assume that EWE's PPA remains in place, either with E.ON or another industrial partner. If this does not occur, we believe that EWE's financial and business risk profiles would both increase, resulting in pressure on the rating.
Alobar
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Aggiornamento monitor bond Utilities (gruppo di lavoro: Alobar, Imark)
AVVERTENZE
E' sempre grazie a Massimo S. che si rendono disponibili, per i bond illiquidi, i prezzi realizzati sui mercati professionali.
Fra quelli in tabella, sono di fonte Xtrakter (ex ICMA) i prezzi dei seguenti titoli: RWE 2033; Gie Suez 2012, GDF Suez 2018; Iberdrola Tutti; Ned Gasunie 2016
Per i bond Gie Suez 2023 e Ned Gasunie 2021 si è reso necessario riprendere il prezzo Bloomberg (BBML).
I prezzi Xtrakter e Bloomberg risalgono a venerdì scorso.
Trovate il file allegato al primo messaggio del thread;
La tabella dei prezzi, divisa in tre parti. Parte prima:
AVVERTENZE
E' sempre grazie a Massimo S. che si rendono disponibili, per i bond illiquidi, i prezzi realizzati sui mercati professionali.
Fra quelli in tabella, sono di fonte Xtrakter (ex ICMA) i prezzi dei seguenti titoli: RWE 2033; Gie Suez 2012, GDF Suez 2018; Iberdrola Tutti; Ned Gasunie 2016
Per i bond Gie Suez 2023 e Ned Gasunie 2021 si è reso necessario riprendere il prezzo Bloomberg (BBML).
I prezzi Xtrakter e Bloomberg risalgono a venerdì scorso.
Trovate il file allegato al primo messaggio del thread;
La tabella dei prezzi, divisa in tre parti. Parte prima:
Imark
Forumer storico
Per i cercatori di rendimento, vanno tenuti d'occhio gli emittenti dei paesi periferici in caso di prossimi attacchi contro i TdS di questi stessi paesi nelle settimane a venire... qui abbiamo Enel e Iberdrola (che però è un colosso molto solido), ma altri emittenti che non abbiamo avuto modo di inserire nel monitor, penso ad es. a Gas Natural in Spagna, hanno già mostrato una forte tendenza a vedere i propri prezzi muoversi in funzione di quanto succede in Grecia...
Un titolo che in particolare ha mostrato una notevole reattività al newsflow è la 5,125 Gas Natural 2021 XS0458749826, scesa fino a 99 ed oltre sull'onda delle cattive notizie a febbraio e poi riportatasi fino a 103,50, salvo flettere ancora sulla scorta delle news per chiudere a 101,64 venerdì...
Un titolo che in particolare ha mostrato una notevole reattività al newsflow è la 5,125 Gas Natural 2021 XS0458749826, scesa fino a 99 ed oltre sull'onda delle cattive notizie a febbraio e poi riportatasi fino a 103,50, salvo flettere ancora sulla scorta delle news per chiudere a 101,64 venerdì...
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