banche irlandesi oggi giornata decisiva
Irlanda: settore bancario ancora sotto pressione MILANO (MF-DJ)--Crolla per il secondo giorno consecutivo il settore bancario irlandese in vista dell'annuncio del Governo sulla bad bank che dovrebbe raccogliere, secondo il Financial Times, circa 81 mld euro. L'incertezza sulla quota che lo Stato deterra' nelle banche e l'haircut a cui verranno ceduti gli asset, sta mettendo pressioni sui titoli. Allied Irish Bank potrebbe finire totalmente nelle mani pubbliche, cosi' come Bank of Ireland. Il Governo detiene nelle 2 banche rispettivamente il 25% e il 16%. Allied Irish Bank cede quasi il 25%. red (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 30, 2010 08:53 ET (12:53 GMT) Copyright (c) 2010 MF-Dow Jones News Srl.
March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Irish Finance Minister
Brian Lenihan will today set out his plans to free the country’s banks of toxic real-estate loans and jumpstart the financial system.
Lenihan is due to speak in the Dublin parliament at about 5:30 p.m. Separately, the National Asset Management Agency will announce how much it will pay for loans from lenders including
Bank of Ireland Plc at 4:30 p.m. At about the same time, the regulator will set new capital buffers banks must put in place.
The government’s aim is to revitalize an industry crippled by the collapse of the real-estate market and Ireland’s
deepest recession. Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin estimates banks will need at least $25 billion. The measures may leave the state with a majority stake in
Allied Irish Banks Plc and lenders may still need more cash in future, according to
Brian Lucey, associate professor of finance at Trinity College Dublin.
“It’s like someone lying on the road hurt,” said Lucey. “You can give them emergency plasma now, but they still might need blood transfusions down the line.”
Allied Irish plunged 16 percent to 1.15 euros as of 12:30 p.m. in Dublin, extending yesterday’s 20 percent drop. Bank of Ireland fell 1.2 percent to 1.23 euros.
Bond Performance
Allied Irish may need as much as 7 billion euros ($9.4 billion) to cover losses on loans transferring to NAMA, the Irish Times reported today. Lucey said he expects the state to own no less than 65 percent of AIB after it injects funds into the lender.
Analysts at Davy, a securities firm in Dublin, estimated the bank needs as much as 5 billion euros. A spokesman at Allied Irish declined to comment.
The bank plan, as well as government measures to reduce the budget deficit, have helped cut the
yield premium investors demand to hold Irish debt over bunds in the last year. The nation’s debt is the second-best performer among the 16 euro- area nations this year, according to Bloomberg/EFFAS indexes.
Irish 10-year bond yields were within 140 basis points of German bunds today, compared with a 317 basis-point gap for Greece.
The
asset agency, set up last year to absorb loans from banks, is buying debt with a book value of 80 billion euros, about half the size of the Irish economy.
Discounts
The agency will pay about 35 percent less than the book value for Allied Irish’s loans and discount Bank of Ireland’s assets by 30 percent, Dublin-based Goodbody Stockbrokers, which is owned by AIB, estimates. The discounts will eat into the banks’ capital as the financial regulator,
Matthew Elderfield, sets out the new levels the lenders should hold.
Allied Irish had an equity core tier 1 capital ratio of 5 percent at the end of 2009. Bank of Ireland had a 6.6 percent ratio on Sept. 30. Those ratios, key measures of financial strength, exclude a government investment of 3.5 billion euros in each bank made at the start of 2009.
Once the capital buffers are announced, the focus will turn to how the banks will raise the cash. While Allied Irish Managing Director
Colm Doherty said on March 2 that he favors a “self-help” option that would involve selling assets or finding strategic investors, the state may be the likeliest source of funding if the banks need to move quickly.
That could leave Ireland providing about 7 billion euros to Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland, Davy estimated.
Anglo Irish Bank Corp., nationalized last year, will need as much as 9 billion euros, Chief Executive Officer
Mike Aynsley said last week. Irish Nationwide Building Society and EBS Building Society will also get cash.
Trinity’s Lucey isn’t convinced the capital injection will persuade banks to stop hoarding cash as losses on mortgages start to rise.
“Given there is a second and third wave of losses to come, I’m not sure this will be enough to lift the banks of their current state of zombification,” said Lucey.
Ireland Prepares ?Emergency Transfusions? for Banks (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
