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ferdo

Utente Senior
mentre i T1 di Commerzbank sono alle stelle, l'azione è a 4,50 Euro (scesa come i ns bancari ultimamente):
inoltre:
"Die CoMEN sollen ab dem 18. April 2011 an der Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse und im Xetra-Handelssystem notiert werden."
Cosa sono le CoMEN, in emissione dal 18 aprile?!
ora indago

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second-
biggest lender, fell to the lowest price since July 2009 in
Frankfurt trading as it was selling conditional mandatory
exchangeable notes to investors as part of a capital increase.
Commerzbank slid 5.5 percent to 4.67 euros as of 3:34 p.m.
local time. The Frankfurt-based lender is likely to price the
sale of the notes, called Comen, at 4 euros to 4.75 euros
apiece, according to three people familiar with the offer.
“Some traders have calculated that the fair value for
those Comen is about 4.50 euros, making the stock drop closer to
that level,” said Andreas Lipkow, an equity trader at MWB
Fairtrade Wertpapierhandelsbank AG in Frankfurt. “It’s an
arbitrage thing. Commerzbank is not a good buying opportunity in
the short term because of the capital increase.”
The German bank, which needed a government bailout during
the financial crisis, said last week it plans to repay about
14.3 billion euros ($21 billion) in aid by June by selling new
shares and using excess capital. In a first step, the lender is
selling the exchangeable notes to investors, followed by a
rights offer that needs approval from the annual general
meeting, which will be held May 6.
The sale of the Comen will end today, said the people, who
declined to be identified because an announcement has not been
made public. Reiner Rossmann, a spokesman for Commerzbank in
Frankfurt, declined to comment.

Option Trading

The bank seeks to raise 11 billion euros in two steps, with
8.25 billion euros coming from investors and 2.75 billion from
Germany’s Soffin bank-rescue fund. The sale of Comen is
estimated to raise 3.5 billion euros to 4.5 billion euros, with
a maximum cap set at 6 billion euros. In the rights issue, the
lender plans to collect 6.5 billion euros to 7.5 billion euros.
The final size of the individual steps depends on demand.
Option traders see more potential for Commerzbank shares to
drop. Implied volatility, the key gauge of option prices, for
at-the-money put contracts expiring in 30 days has jumped to
61.2, compared with 42.4 for calls with the same expiry.
Investors use options to guard against fluctuations in the
price of securities they own, speculate on share-price moves or
bet that volatility, or stock swings, will rise or fall. A put
is an agreement that gives the right to sell a security for a
certain amount, known as the strike price, by a set date, while
a call carries the right to buy.
 
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Vet

Forumer storico
per chi pensa e crede che il dollaro sia sottovalutato, posto questo articolo preso da Reuters

World finance chiefs chastise U.S. on budget gap


Sat Apr 16, 2011 4:22PM EDT

By Lesley Wroughton

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - World finance leaders on Saturday chastised the United States for not doing enough to shrink its massive overspending and warned that budget strains in rich nations threaten the global recovery.

Finance ministers in Washington for semi-annual talks took sharper aim than in previous years at the United States' $14 trillion debt.

While most of the criticism came from emerging market economies, some advanced nations joined the chorus.

Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager warned that if the United States and other advanced nations move too slowly it could undermine confidence in the global economy.

"Insufficient budgetary consolidation may spark off further escalation of debt sustainability issues, with repercussions on confidence and the still fragile financial sector," de Jager told the International Monetary Fund's steering committee.

"Debt dynamics in other advanced economies, including the United States, are of concern."

The IMF this week said the U.S. budget deficit was on course to hit 10.8 percent of nation's economic output this year, tying with Ireland for the highest deficit-to-GDP ratio among advanced economies. It urged Washington to move quickly to put a credible plan in place to tighten its belt.

Brazil's finance minister, Guido Mantega, offered sharp words in a thinly veiled attack on the United States. "Ironically, some of the countries that are responsible for the deepest crisis since the Great Depression, and have yet to solve their own problems, are eager to prescribe codes of conduct to the rest of the world," he said.

The Group of 20 countries agreed on Friday to a plan that could put more pressure on the United States to fix its deficits as well as push other leading economies to address their own shortcomings.

The IMF's advisory panel on Saturday said issues of financial stability and sovereign debt stability must be addressed, saying in a communique that "credible actions are needed to accelerate progress." It emphasized the need for fiscal consolidation in advanced economies while avoiding overheating in emerging economies.

The Obama administration and the U.S. Congress are locked in battle over how best to fix the deficit. Republicans are pushing for deep spending cuts as part of the argument over raising the nation's $14.3 trillion debt limit, something which is needed to avoid an unprecedented U.S. debt default.

The Republican-led House of Representatives on Friday approved a plan to slash spending by nearly $6 trillion over a decade and cut benefits for the elderly and poor.

President Barack Obama, who has offered a competing vision to curb deficits by $4 trillion over 12 years, said on Thursday the Republican plan would create "a nation of potholes."

The White House is wary about cutting spending sharply while the economic recovery remains fragile.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told fellow finance ministers on Saturday caution was needed.

"We are committed to fiscal reforms that will restrain spending and reduce deficits while not threatening the economic recovery," he said.

Geithner was quick to say others whose policies contribute to global imbalances must change too, "especially those whose fundamentals call for greater exchange rate flexibility..."

The United States has repeatedly called for China to relax its limits on the yuan currency.

Yi Gang, a deputy governor of China's central bank, called for "more rigorous" efforts by advanced economies to tighten budgets and said the IMF needs to strengthen its monitoring of these rich nations.

Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, taking aim at the U.S. Federal Reserve, said central banks that buy government debt to keep interest rates low were abetting fiscal profligacy.

The Fed is on course to complete the purchase of $600 billion in U.S. government debt by the end of June, which would take its total purchases of mortgage-related and government debt since December 2008 to nearly $2.3 trillion.

Echoing Republican lawmakers and even some Fed officials, Kudrin said those purchases blurred the line between monetary and fiscal policy in a way that could jeopardize a central bank's independence.

"We observe this process with some wonderment, since it amounts to the monetization of those countries' budget deficits," Kudrin said.

(Additional reporting by Glenn Somerville; Writing by Lesley Wroughton and Tim Ahmann; Editing by Leslie Adler)
 

stefmas

Forumer storico
L'impressione è che ormai a sconto sia rimasto davvero poco... I mercati sono in attesa di qualche bad news a caso per dare il via a un altro scrollone? Oppure si stabilizzeranno su questi livelli? Chissà che in futuro i prezzi di oggi non ci sembrino molto a sconto rispetto a quelli che verranno :D
 

fidw99

100% perpetual
spread tier1

ho trovato su bbg questo interessante indicatore

è lo spread di rendimento tra i tier1 bancari e i governativi con pari scadenza (credo 5 anni)

è interessante notare quanto quotava in passato, nel periodo 2001 - 2002 (fare di ricessione) oscillava tra i 200 e 300, nel periodo successivo (dal 2003, bolla finanziaria ha toccato un minimo di 50 !!!) per andare ad un massimo di 3500 :D.

Oggi la soglia importante da violare era 500, siamo andati sotto nelle ultime settimane, ha toccato 400 e adesso sta consolidando a 435. Con una situazione in normalizzazione come obiettivo potremmo avere inizialemente 300.

Buona settimana a tutti :up:
 

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bulogna

Forumer storico
ho trovato su bbg questo interessante indicatore

è lo spread di rendimento tra i tier1 bancari e i governativi con pari scadenza (credo 5 anni)

è interessante notare quanto quotava in passato, nel periodo 2001 - 2002 (fare di ricessione) oscillava tra i 200 e 300, nel periodo successivo (dal 2003, bolla finanziaria ha toccato un minimo di 50 !!!) per andare ad un massimo di 3500 :D.

Oggi la soglia importante da violare era 500, siamo andati sotto nelle ultime settimane, ha toccato 400 e adesso sta consolidando a 435. Con una situazione in normalizzazione come obiettivo potremmo avere inizialemente 300.

Buona settimana a tutti :up:

Molto interessante: probabilmente avremo qualche oscillazione sulle p ma certi prezzi (se non distressed) non li vedremo più purtroppo.
 

camaleonte

Forumer storico
la similitudine con gli anni 70 è molto forte nella fase attuale. Sarei lieto di essere smentito ma, fino a quando negli USA assisteremo a politiche monetarie espansive e misure fiscali morbide, il $ sarà sempre debole, di conseguenza l'oro ecc. continueranno a salire creando inflazione. Fino a quando in America non si prospettano avanzi di bilancio il $ sarà sempre più debole e, le conseguenze potrebbero toccare tutti i settori. Ricordo che,
P. Vocher sconfisse la stagflazione negli anni 70 grazie a misure restrittive
paurose, da lì iniziò il recupero del $, culminato nel 2000.
 
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