Ciao claudio123, difficile dire, apparentemente chiuderanno il 2008 in attivo, certo che in generale le banche inglesi non sono messe un granchè bene.
Se vuoi ridurre il rischio potresti venderne metà e comprare una perpetual italiana che abbia lo stesso prezzo...
Barclays Says 2008 Profit to Beat Estimates After Shares Fall
By Jon Menon
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) --
Barclays Plc, the U.K. bank that turned down government funding last year, said 2008 earnings will exceed analysts’ forecasts and called today’s 25 percent drop in London trading unjustified.
Barclays pretax profit in 2008 will be “well ahead” of analysts’
average estimate of 5.3 billion pounds ($7.8 billion), the bank said in a statement after the stock fell the most in two decades on speculation it needs more capital. Barclays’s
American depositary receipts, down as much as 32 percent at 2:30 p.m. in New York, pared the drop to 14 percent following the statement.
Barclays, which acquired Lehman Brothers Holding Inc.’s North American trading and investment-banking operations last year, raised 7 billion pounds in November mainly from funds in Qatar and Abu Dhabi after the U.K. government forced it to boost capital.
Citigroup Inc. posted an $8.29 billion loss today, twice as much as analysts estimated, while Bank of America Corp. posted its first
loss since 1991. Both banks went back to the U.S. Treasury for second rounds of capital.
“Looking at the U.S. banking results, there may be much bigger writedowns to come” at Barclays, said
Derek Chambers, a London-based analyst at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research Ltd. who has a “hold” rating on the stock. “It could leave them needing extra capital,” and Barclays may face more onerous terms than Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc got when they raised 37 billion pounds from the U.K. government.
Barclays and RBS declined on the day that a ban protecting 34 financial companies from short-selling was lifted by the U.K.’s
Financial Services Authority.
Under Water
RBS, the biggest bank controlled by the British government, fell 13 percent to 34.7 pence in London.
Shares of the company, which named
Philip Hampton today as its new chairman after raising 20 billion pounds from the government, are down 89 percent from a year ago.
Barclays tumbled to 98 pence in London, extending this month’s decline to 36 percent, more than any other U.K. bank. Investors in Qatar and Abu Dhabi got securities paying 14 percent interest and options to buy as much as 1.5 billion pounds of Barclays stock at 198 pence a share last October. That’s twice as much as today’s closing price in London.
“The Board of Barclays knows of no justification for fall in the share price,” the bank’s statement said. Pretax profit reflecting all costs, impairment and market valuations will exceed analysts’ average estimate, the statement said. The bank’s equity Tier-1 capital at year end will be 6.5 percent, and Tier-1 capital will be 9.5 percent on a pro forma basis reflecting the conversion of notes, Barclays said.
Job Cuts
Barclays has cut more than 4,500 jobs in units including investment banking and consumer banking. It paid $1.75 billion for the trading and investment banking operations of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September.
Chancellor of the Exchequer
Alistair Darling will announce a new round of guarantees for mortgages and corporate loans to spur U.K. bank lending as soon as next week, a person with knowledge of the plans said. The Times and Daily Telegraph newspapers today said the government is considering funding a so-called bad bank to absorb toxic loans.
“Maybe the concern is that the creation a bad bank would disadvantage banks” like Barclays that have taken lower writedowns on toxic assets than their peers, said
Ian Gordon, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas in London. He has a “neutral” rating on the stock.
“‘The bad bank option is certainly not a frontrunner,’’ a government official said.
Credit Default Swaps
Credit-default swaps on Barclays declined 2 basis points to 165, according to CMA Datavision prices at 4:45 p.m. in London.
Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company’s ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A decline indicates an improvement in the perception of credit quality.
A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting 10 million euros of debt from default for five years is equivalent to 1,000 euros a year.
‘‘What you typically see when you have government intervention is equities crash and at the same time there is no reaction on the CDS side,’’ said
Tim Brunne, a Munich-based credit strategist at UniCredit SpA. ‘‘State interventions are credit positive but not good for owners of the companies.’’
To contact the reporter on this story:
Jon Menon in London at
[email protected]
Last Updated: January 16, 2009 16:16 EST
