Zorba
Bos 4 Mod
Copio e incollo questo post di Avidya, il miglior forumer dei Fools. E' interessante la sua view.
At the risk of being proved wrong by tomorrow morning, I’ll stick my neck out and say that the firing of the army chiefs doesn’t mean a coup is imminent in Greece. I’ve had property there for many years and like to think I know the country reasonably well, and the Greek army is nowhere near the force it once was. But as for the timing of the announcement, it occurs to me that the Greeks are crafty negotiators and I wouldn’t put it past them to have timed it as a not so subtle signal to the rest of the EU to say “go easy on us, if you don’t there’ll be a coup”. After all, everyone involved must be well aware that if there were to be a coup then all bets would be off as far as the Eurozone is concerned - the EU couldn’t advance Greece another cent after a coup, and Greece would immediately be expelled from the EU, with disastrous consequences for the EU banking system.
So, touch wood, I’d say a coup isn’t imminent, but I suppose what this move does tell you (all four Chiefs of Defense Staff do indeed seem to have been sacked this evening) is just how politically fraught and unstable the situation in Greece has become. The country is at breaking point, and it seems like pie in the sky for EU leaders to think they can keep imposing yet further austerity measures there for much longer. The blunt fact is, Greece will have to default, and probably default big time. The only question is how soon it will happen, and the risk is that the timing of that may now be spinning out of politicians’ control. The reality is that because the public sector (EU, ECB, IMF, Greek banks and pension funds) now own so much of Greek’s national debt, then if Greece "hard" defaults private sector bond holders will be very lucky to get back anything at all (the yield on the Greek one year sovereign has soared to over 200% today from 150% yesterday). That in turn of course means that Eurozone banks would need significantly greater recapitalization measures than the €106bn proposed, and given the collapse in their share prices that may have to come from governments. And not “funny money” either, but real cash. I’ve just watched the lead IIF negotiator talking on Newsnight, and I’ve never seen a bankers’ representative argue so passionately that his members are keen to take a write down and are doing everybody a favor by volunteering to take a 50% haircut. I’d say the reason for his enthusiasm for a haircut is that the deal he negotiated and announced last week was in fact nothing like a 50% haircut in NPV terms, and his members now face the very real risk of 100% losses if Greece hard defaults.
This whole situation is fast getting very, very serious and unstable. Eurozone leaders, and indeed the G20, need to stop mouthing pious platitudes that few market participants believe, and get real. Quickly, or this mess will spiral out of their control. They need to have contingency plans to recapitalize their banks immediately if necessary, not in a few months’ time. And they need to decide whether they are going to let Greece default or keep pumping money in whilst relaxing further austerity measures. Given their preference for fudges, I wouldn’t put it past them to give in to Papandreou’s manouvre and relax the austerity rhetoric to try and help him win a referendum. If they do that, and he does win a referendum (a lot of "ifs"), then I suppose that might just put off the evil day for a while longer. But if If they’re going to hold the line on austerity, and that results in a hard default (either because the Greeks reject it either through a referendum or via a new government), they have then to decide whether they’re going to contain the fall out across the rest of the Eurozone with real taxpayer money, or whether they’re going to force the ECB to print it. There are no easy choices any more. If they’d acted six months ago, maybe they could have deferred the moment of truth for longer. But they didn’t, and now here we are.
But given these clowns’ record, it may be that they won’t face up to this until they have finally, really and incontrovertibly, no other choice to prevent EU banks closing the next day. That crisis moment could happen any day now, or it could drag on for a while longer. The cynic in me thinks they’ll keep rolling the dice until the last possible moment, praying that Papandreou survives and can win a referendum, or that maybe that they can give him a better deal to help keep him in power and give him an excuse to cancel the referendum. Anything to buy just a little more time. But it’s tragic that Europe is so devoid of political leadership that all we can do is lurch from one fire to another, and that it seems to take imminent financial crisis to force even grudging last minute measures. The uncertainty doesn’t exactly make one want to go out and buy risk assets right now, and God knows what it’s doing to business confidence throughout the Eurozone. It’s like an object lesson in how not to handle a crisis of market confidence and make it worse.
FWIW, on balance I still think that in the end they’ll force the ECB to print money and (whatever the long term problems with that) if that happens then that’s the day I’ll pile back into risk assets. But I have to say that whilst I still think it’s the most likely outcome, I’m no longer quite so sure of it as I once was. There are simply huge legal, political and cultural obstacles to doing that, both within Germany and within the ECB itself. It makes me fear that things might have to get quite a bit worse yet before (if) it happens.
Sorry if the above sounds a tad apocalyptic and heartless - I have both physical assets and friends in Greece, and what’s happening there is no joke. Whilst it’s true that they got themselves into it, that doesn’t make the situation there any less tragic or worrying.
A
TMF: Re: Greek Military Coup thwarted? / Paulypilot's Pub - Macro Topics
At the risk of being proved wrong by tomorrow morning, I’ll stick my neck out and say that the firing of the army chiefs doesn’t mean a coup is imminent in Greece. I’ve had property there for many years and like to think I know the country reasonably well, and the Greek army is nowhere near the force it once was. But as for the timing of the announcement, it occurs to me that the Greeks are crafty negotiators and I wouldn’t put it past them to have timed it as a not so subtle signal to the rest of the EU to say “go easy on us, if you don’t there’ll be a coup”. After all, everyone involved must be well aware that if there were to be a coup then all bets would be off as far as the Eurozone is concerned - the EU couldn’t advance Greece another cent after a coup, and Greece would immediately be expelled from the EU, with disastrous consequences for the EU banking system.
So, touch wood, I’d say a coup isn’t imminent, but I suppose what this move does tell you (all four Chiefs of Defense Staff do indeed seem to have been sacked this evening) is just how politically fraught and unstable the situation in Greece has become. The country is at breaking point, and it seems like pie in the sky for EU leaders to think they can keep imposing yet further austerity measures there for much longer. The blunt fact is, Greece will have to default, and probably default big time. The only question is how soon it will happen, and the risk is that the timing of that may now be spinning out of politicians’ control. The reality is that because the public sector (EU, ECB, IMF, Greek banks and pension funds) now own so much of Greek’s national debt, then if Greece "hard" defaults private sector bond holders will be very lucky to get back anything at all (the yield on the Greek one year sovereign has soared to over 200% today from 150% yesterday). That in turn of course means that Eurozone banks would need significantly greater recapitalization measures than the €106bn proposed, and given the collapse in their share prices that may have to come from governments. And not “funny money” either, but real cash. I’ve just watched the lead IIF negotiator talking on Newsnight, and I’ve never seen a bankers’ representative argue so passionately that his members are keen to take a write down and are doing everybody a favor by volunteering to take a 50% haircut. I’d say the reason for his enthusiasm for a haircut is that the deal he negotiated and announced last week was in fact nothing like a 50% haircut in NPV terms, and his members now face the very real risk of 100% losses if Greece hard defaults.
This whole situation is fast getting very, very serious and unstable. Eurozone leaders, and indeed the G20, need to stop mouthing pious platitudes that few market participants believe, and get real. Quickly, or this mess will spiral out of their control. They need to have contingency plans to recapitalize their banks immediately if necessary, not in a few months’ time. And they need to decide whether they are going to let Greece default or keep pumping money in whilst relaxing further austerity measures. Given their preference for fudges, I wouldn’t put it past them to give in to Papandreou’s manouvre and relax the austerity rhetoric to try and help him win a referendum. If they do that, and he does win a referendum (a lot of "ifs"), then I suppose that might just put off the evil day for a while longer. But if If they’re going to hold the line on austerity, and that results in a hard default (either because the Greeks reject it either through a referendum or via a new government), they have then to decide whether they’re going to contain the fall out across the rest of the Eurozone with real taxpayer money, or whether they’re going to force the ECB to print it. There are no easy choices any more. If they’d acted six months ago, maybe they could have deferred the moment of truth for longer. But they didn’t, and now here we are.
But given these clowns’ record, it may be that they won’t face up to this until they have finally, really and incontrovertibly, no other choice to prevent EU banks closing the next day. That crisis moment could happen any day now, or it could drag on for a while longer. The cynic in me thinks they’ll keep rolling the dice until the last possible moment, praying that Papandreou survives and can win a referendum, or that maybe that they can give him a better deal to help keep him in power and give him an excuse to cancel the referendum. Anything to buy just a little more time. But it’s tragic that Europe is so devoid of political leadership that all we can do is lurch from one fire to another, and that it seems to take imminent financial crisis to force even grudging last minute measures. The uncertainty doesn’t exactly make one want to go out and buy risk assets right now, and God knows what it’s doing to business confidence throughout the Eurozone. It’s like an object lesson in how not to handle a crisis of market confidence and make it worse.
FWIW, on balance I still think that in the end they’ll force the ECB to print money and (whatever the long term problems with that) if that happens then that’s the day I’ll pile back into risk assets. But I have to say that whilst I still think it’s the most likely outcome, I’m no longer quite so sure of it as I once was. There are simply huge legal, political and cultural obstacles to doing that, both within Germany and within the ECB itself. It makes me fear that things might have to get quite a bit worse yet before (if) it happens.
Sorry if the above sounds a tad apocalyptic and heartless - I have both physical assets and friends in Greece, and what’s happening there is no joke. Whilst it’s true that they got themselves into it, that doesn’t make the situation there any less tragic or worrying.
A
TMF: Re: Greek Military Coup thwarted? / Paulypilot's Pub - Macro Topics