ma il rating di Fitch riguarda le obbligazioni normali, mica i perpetual subordinati.
Presse release. I bond subordinati sono ad ulteriore rischio di downgrade nel breve termine.
Fitch Downgrades Groupama's IFS to 'BBB'; Outlook Negative
Ratings
27 Sep 2011 7:01 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-Paris/London-27 September 2011: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Groupama S.A.'s and four of its core insurance subsidiaries' Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) ratings to 'BBB' from 'A-'. The subsidiaries are Groupama GAN Vie, GAN Assurances, GAN Eurocourtage and Groupama Transport. Fitch has also downgraded Groupama S.A.'s Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+'. Groupama S.A.'s subordinated debt ratings are downgraded to 'BB' from 'BBB-' and placed on Rating Watch Negative. All rating Outlooks are Negative. A full list of rating actions is at the end of this comment.
The downgrade reflects the deterioration of Fitch's view of Groupama's capital adequacy following volatility in the financial markets, as a result of the group's continued exposure to volatile asset classes, including equities.
The downgrade and placement of subordinated debt ratings on Rating Watch Negative reflects Fitch's view of the increased risk of coupon deferral given the declining level of Groupama's regulatory solvency. Should the group's regulatory solvency margin improve following the remedial action being taken by management to strengthen capitalisation, the Rating Watch Negative would likely be withdrawn. However, if the group's regulatory solvency margin continues to decline, or core group ratings are further downgraded, Fitch would expect to downgrade the subordinated debt ratings.
The key rating drivers that could result in a further downgrade include deterioration of the group's financial profile, especially in terms of solvency, as well as its inability to translate measures aimed at improving underwriting results into a sustainable strong performance in non-life (combined ratio near 100%) and life (new business margin near 1%).
The ratings are supported by Groupama's risk profile, which benefits from a large degree of business and risk diversification. The ratings also take into account its solid business position and improving underwriting profitability.
Fitch will carefully monitor Groupama's ability to rebuild its capital adequacy via retained earnings to compensate for increased unrealised capital losses. The agency considers Groupama's largest challenge will be to smoothly manage the reduction of its exposure to equities and southern European government bonds, especially Greece.
The ratings actions are as follows:
Groupama S.A.
IFS rating downgraded to 'BBB' from 'A-'; Outlook Negative
Long-term IDR downgraded to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+'; Outlook Negative
Subordinated debt downgraded to 'BB' from 'BBB-';
Placed on Rating Watch Negative
Junior subordinated debt downgraded to 'BB' from 'BBB-';
Placed on Rating Watch Negative
Groupama GAN Vie
IFS rating downgraded to 'BBB' from 'A-'; Outlook Negative
GAN Assurances
IFS rating downgraded to 'BBB' from 'A-'; Outlook Negative
GAN Eurocourtage
IFS rating downgraded to 'BBB' from 'A-'; Outlook Negative Groupama Transport
IFS rating downgraded to 'BBB' from 'A-'; Outlook Negative
) e a supporto scelgono il modello di calcolo che meglio giustifichi la loro decisione, che ha pero' tutt'altra origine.
