Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3

Myskin ha scritto:
mah sai, da un parte abbiamo una banca con l'adc prossimo, entro fine giugno, e con i parametri a posto (per modo di dire perchè le popolari hanno sempre i bilanci gonfiati), dall'altro un banca alla ricerca spasmodica di qualcuno che ci metta i soldi
comunque oggi stranissimi volumi sul lux :mmmm:
Clicca per allargare...

Non capisco il tuo paragone ,veneto banca è infinitamente meglio di banca marche ,e infatti io ho solo la seconda :D
 
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We think Unipol is the stronger credit and in this note we expand on why. It complements the note of 5 June ([FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]UnipolSai might issue [/FONT][/FONT]€ [FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]Tier 1: some thoughts)[/FONT][/FONT].
[FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][/FONT][/FONT]Unipol said that it did not need the bond markets in 2011, then took over Fondiaria-SAI in 2012/2013 and has been active in 2014: first, exchanging Senior notes at UGF to extend the maturity of its debt; and now hoping to issue junior subordinated debt in the euro markets.
[FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][/FONT][/FONT]As UnipolSai moves to provide indicative pricing on the high 5% area (5.875% according to Bloomberg), which is along the lines of what we had expected, we provide some comparative statistics and add a few more comments. Some investors may or may not want to buy the bonds of groups that are among the weakest in the sector, but we have seen of late that due to the compression of spreads, weak fundamentals do not stop investors from pouring money into credit and exposure to peripherals has been the flavour of the month once again. Thus, the exposures of Unipol and Groupama to Italian government debt are currently viewed as a plus.
[FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][/FONT][/FONT]The issue here is Relative Value: whether Unipol or Groupama is the stronger credit. Until now, if we look at spreads, the market has regarded Unipol as worse than Groupama. There are reasons for and against this view, but it is now essential to resolve this inconsistency because Unipol’s bond is in fact pricing inside Groupama’s (€.1bn 6.375%) in the Undated Subordinated space, which has direct repercussions for the Senior bonds of Unipol which are so wide.
[FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][/FONT][/FONT]On this basis, we would expect the recently issued Senior bond of Unipol, which was used for the Exchange Offer (UNIIM €00mn 4.375% 2021) to rally.
 
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Groupama failed to call a Dated Subordinated bond at the first call date in 2009, but before the year ended had come to the market and refinanced it, calling at the second call date. Then, it skipped and cancelled a coupon on the Tier 1 in 2012, because it could, not because it needed to. We doubt that it would opt to do something like that again, as it did not help its solvency and it hurt its reputation.
[FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][/FONT][/FONT]Unipol did not call its Dated Subordinated bonds in 2011 and 2013 and they are still out there, floating and reminding investors of the risks and the reputation.
[FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][/FONT][/FONT]It is hard to say which of the above is worse, but if we deducted a point from each the score would be 0 to Unipol and -1 to Groupama.
[FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][/FONT][/FONT]Insurers are in the business of meeting financial promises and cannot afford to have any material subsidiary default on its obligations. For this reason, the existence of a Cross Default Clause on the senior debt of Unipol Gruppo Finanziario SpA (UGF) is not a concern, as senior debt of most groups has Events of Default and Cross Default clauses.
[FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][/FONT][/FONT]To the extent that the clause is there to protect senior bondholders at the ultimate holding company, they are a positive factor and not of consequence to the subordinated debt of subsidiaries.
[FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][/FONT][/FONT]For subordinated debt that will count as solvency capital for regulatory purposes, it is required that there cannot be acceleration of repayment. This is supportive of tighter spreads at UGF’s senior debt.
[FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][FONT=Wingdings,Wingdings][/FONT][/FONT]If Unipol prices inside Groupama in the Undated Subordinated space, it must be inside in Senior. Whether investors like Unipol’s new undated subordinated bond or not, it is more protected than the one of Groupama and makes the Senior UNIIM €00mn 4.375% look better today.
 
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