MAPFRE 5,921% LT2 callable 2017 , poi giuro che non la citero' piu'...
Mapfre is a leader in non-life and strongly positioned in life and it has transformed itself from primarily a Spanish insurer into a diversified insurance conglomerate (Spain was 2/3 of premiums in 2007 and was just 1/3 in 2012; we expect it to be ¼ in 2016). Mapfre should deliver a 2013-16 net income CAGR of more than 10%, driven by an increasing share from fast-growing markets, which is currently close to a half. In particular, its exposure to the LatAm markets, where Mapfre should fuel this above-average growth in the European sector. The key concerns regarding Mapfre’s balance sheet have been related to its Spanish debt exposure, high intangibles, and elevated financial leverage. However, these concerns have been largely addressed: the bulk of its Spanish debt is matched with life liabilities, the solvency 1 ratio has reached 261% and financial leverage has fallen to 18%. The stock trades at a 2014E P/NAV of 1.2x for a 16% RoNAV versus the sector at 1.3x for a 13% RoNAV.
Given the stock’s recent outperformance, we think the sale by Bankia of its 15% stake in Mapfre may happen sooner rather than later. This should end overhang concerns and could be the catalyst for a further re-rating.