Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 1

probabilità recovery

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segnalo un'impennata verso l'alto di PDVSA USP7807HAM71 :up:

e questa oggi è balzata a 104 :bow: ritengo ke vengano beneficiate dalle statalizzazioni forzate di aziende private del komparto energetiko adesso in atto in Bolivia e Argentina ... huGorilla ha già nazionalizzato tutto da anni :D :D :D
 
ci sta lasciando...

Excerpts of column "Runrunes" (Rumors) released on Thursday, May 3

A handicapped president was not shown on TV in leaving the country; he needs help to go up or down the stairs


NELSON BOCARANDA SARDI | EL UNIVERSAL
Thursday May 03, 2012 01:41 PM


High

THE PATIENT. Rather than the spreading disease, he is dived in depression together with his aches and pains caused by body injuries, particularly in the hipbones. At long last, after many months of differences, Cuban doctors agreed with the diagnosis of their Brazilian, Venezuelan and Spanish counterparts. The results of the latest testing were, again, no good at all for the patient. Firstly, as a result of the doctors' agreements, it was acknowledged that radiotherapy may be applied no more to his pelvis, because the previous radiation broke the femoral neck. Hence, the source of the pain. From this week onwards, he will be under psychological treatment to face any fatality, should the miracle requested in public on Monday, April 30, not come true. A handicapped president was not shown on TV in leaving the country; he needs help to go up or down the stairs. The photo of him with Cuban leader Raúl Castro -who promised to always welcome him at Havana airport- was carefully prepared so that he could get rid of the stick or the wheelchair for a couple of minutes. All of the persons close to him are keenly aware that very tough times are coming up. I have learned from Cuba that the patient was mad at the tweet of Rizarrita (Minister of Communication and Information Andrés Izarra): "Chávez forever, will be people and awareness," for suggesting his passing.

Intermediate

TRANSITION COUNCIL? The president knows that he is not permitted to leave the country in the hands of questioned officials who have put Venezuelan in the world showcase, because of recent cases of drug traffic, corruption and human rights abuses. For this reason, he is leaving a State Council composed of seasoned operators to ensure that the end of the process will not be traumatic and contrary to family and Cuban interests.

EXPLOSIVE PLOTS. Despair in pro-Chávez ranks is a bad adviser. Nervousness and despair have prevailed in the latest meetings. Those who could not accept the possibility that the only leader of the "robbery-lution" could pass away or relinquish his candidacy dispelled their doubts after the event on Monday at Miraflores presidential palace. What I released on RunRun.es - that a thorough government plan to charge the opposition with "self-inflicted ungovernability" goes ahead step by step. Between Sunday and Tuesday, 72 hours, more than 100 express kidnappings were perpetrated in Caracas by police gangs. They blatantly take action wearing their uniforms and holding their regulation firearms. There are instructions to plant pamphlets in favor of a coup and explosive devices in the places, offices and vehicles of leaders of opposition democratic parties, even of their relatives, in order to accuse them of destabilization. To leave whoever who is not red very red still more unprotected, they resolved on Wednesday, May 2, to prohibit armed bodyguards except for government authorities or diplomats.

RunRun.es -

@nelsonbocaranda

Translated by Conchita Delgado
 
kissà kosa succede ai titoli se el presidente skiatta :-?:-?:-?
Dipenderà molto dalle vicende successorie. E da lì le scelte si rifletteranno sui titoli. In ogni caso, poichè il mercato sa tutto molto prima di noi comuni mortali, è possibile notare che da quando le notizie sulle condizioni di salute di chavez sono peggiorate i titoli hanno visto un notevole incremento del loro valore.Per cui sembrerebbe che una eventuale dipartita sia "ben accolta", fermo restando, ovviamente, il dispiacere per la morte di un essere umano in quanto tale. Vedremo...
 
PDVSA Said to Plan $3 Billion 20-Year Bond Sale This Month

May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the state- owned oil company, will sell $3 billion of 20-year bonds this month, according to a government official who is involved in the operation.
The Venezuelan central bank and other financial institutions are interested in buying the bonds, which will carry an interest rate of 9 percent and be sold before May 14, said the official, who asked not to be identified because he isn’t authorized to speak publicly about the matter.
PDVSA, as the Caracas-based company is known, hasn’t sold dollar bonds since November when it issued $2.4 billion of securities in a private placement with the central bank. The Venezuelan government and PDVSA sell dollar-denominated bonds locally in bolivars at the official exchange rate, which allows companies and individuals to obtain foreign currency by selling the notes abroad to investors.
“Supply is long overdue,” Siobhan Morden, the head of Latin America strategy at Jefferies Group Inc. in New York, said in an e-mail.
This is the best moment for PDVSA to borrow in dollars in the past 18 months, the government official said.
An official at PDVSA declined to comment on any sale.
PDVSA bonds have rallied this year on speculation that President Hugo Chavez, who depends on the oil company to finance his government, may not be fit to stand for re-election and that a new administration may reverse policies that have caused a stagnation in oil production.
Chavez in Cuba
Chavez, 57, has spent more time in Cuba receiving treatment for an undisclosed cancer than in Venezuela since February, while saying that he’ll be the candidate in October elections. The self-declared socialist revolutionary has led Venezuela since 1999.
Bonds issued by PDVSA were the second-most actively traded dollar-denominated corporate securities by dealers in the past week, with 846 trades of $1 million or more, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Notes from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. were the most active.
The yield on PDVSA’s benchmark 8.5 percent bonds due in 2017 rose 45 basis points, or 0.45 percentage point, to 11.19 percent at 4:51 p.m. in Caracas, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The bond’s price fell 1.71 cents to 89.20 cents on the dollar.
Most of the bonds will probably be sold gradually through the central bank’s currency market, avoiding a glut, Victor Sierra, a managing director at Torino Capital LLC in New York, said in an e-mail.
Market Effect
“The net effect on the market should be fairly neutral in the short end,” Sierra said. “I expect a rebound in the coming days as Chavez health issues continue.”
Net income surged 42 percent in 2011 to $4.5 billion on $124 billion of revenue, the oil company said April 17. Total debt rose 40 percent last year to $34.9 billion after the company sold $10.3 billion of dollar-denominated bonds to finance the development of new oil projects and government social programs.
PDVSA President Rafael Ramirez said last month that the company’s debt levels are “comfortable” and that there’s room to borrow more in coming years amid efforts to tap heavy crude reserves in the Orinoco belt with private partners including Chevron Corp. (CVX), Eni SpA (ENI) and Repsol YPF SA.
Of the $3 billion from the new bond sale, $1 billion will probably be allocated to the central bank and the rest to companies in “strategic sectors” for imports of food, medicine and machinery, Asdrubal Oliveros, director of Caracas-based economic consulting and research firm Ecoanalitica, said in a phone interview.
“Most of the new supply should come in a relatively smooth way, with daily sales through Sitme instead of a sudden flow, helping contain volatility,” Barclays Capital analysts Alejandro Arreaza and Alejandro Grisanti wrote today in a note to clients.
To contact the reporters on this story: Corina Pons in Caracas at [email protected]; Daniel Cancel in Caracas at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Papadopoulos at [email protected]
 
Debt traders are pushing up the bonds of state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA as they envision a nation without President Hugo Chavez that may free the oil producer from a tax rate as high as 95 percent.
The company’s $26.5 billion of debentures gained 2.1 percent last week through May 3, the most among the 50 biggest emerging-markets issuers of dollar-denominated debt, building on April returns of 2 percent, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. The extra yield investors demand to buy debt from the owner of U.S. refiner and marketer Citgo Petroleum Corp. compared with the average for speculative-grade U.S. energy companies has dropped by more than half this year.
“Outside investors think anyone is better than Chavez at this point from an external market position,” said Raymond Zucaro, a money manager in Newport Beach, California, at SW Asset Management LLC, which oversees about $230 million of emerging-market corporate debt. “The evil unknown is better than the evil known from the investors’ perspective.”
The oil producer with crude reserves larger than BP Plc (BP/), Exxon Mobil Corp. or Petroleo Brasileiro is drawing interest from debt investors as Chavez, 57, receives radiation in Cuba for an undisclosed form of cancer. Chavez, the nation’s leader since 1999, has weighed down the company known as PDVSA with policies making it the “primary source” of government income and social spending, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
Four Times BP
Bonds of PDVSA were the second-most actively traded dollar- denominated corporate securities by dealers last week, with 552 trades of $1 million or more, trailing only Goldman Sachs Group Inc., according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Amid the trading frenzy, the company’s bonds fell 2.6 percent on May 4, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show.
Yields of 12 percent on its $2.4 billion of bonds due November 2021 are three times as high as those with similar maturities issued by Rio de Janeiro-based Petroleo Brasileiro and four times as high as notes from London-based BP, Trace data show.
Average yields on PDVSA bonds dropped to 10.6 percent on May 3 from 15.1 percent at the end of 2011. The yield gap with the average speculative-grade rated U.S. energy company narrowed to 3.6 percentage points from 7.7 percentage points, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. The gap was at 4.3 percentage points on May 4.
Adding Debt
If Chavez dies or is removed as Venezuela’s leader, “it’s probably a positive credit event,” said Sabur Moini, a money manager who helps oversee about $2 billion of high-yield debt at Los Angeles-based Payden & Rygel. “PDVSA is sort of a quasi- Venezuelan sovereign, so that’s a big factor of the price appreciation.”
The company had $34.9 billion of debt at the end of 2011, $10 billion more than a year earlier, according to Fitch Ratings.
“The company used to be almost debt free and has been highly levered up in the past few years,” said Thomas Coleman, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service in New York. “The company should be making a lot more money than it does.”
The bonds are gaining even as PDVSA adds debt. The government has borrowed at least $40 billion from China in less than four years and is paying that country back by shipping it about 600,000 barrels of oil a day. The Japan Bank for International Cooperation and other Japanese companies agreed to lend PDVSA $1 billion for oil projects, according to an April 24 statement.
Laws Altered
“They’re getting financing from China and other countries where they pay it back in barrels,” Coleman said. Its income and future production “is a lot more tied up than it even looks.”
Chavez altered the nation’s public finance law on March 29 to allow him to borrow more than the budgeted amount without seeking congressional approval. The total current debt of the central government is $79.3 billion, not including the Chinese loans or PDVSA’s debt, according to the Finance Ministry.
The increase in borrowing “reflects a trend of higher capital spending and royalties and taxes, but is driven primarily by rising payments to support government social programs,” Moody’s analysts Coleman and Steven Wood wrote in a Feb. 7 report.
Chemotherapy, Radiation
PDVSA plans to sell $3 billion of 20-year bonds with 9 percent yields before May 14, according to a government official who is involved in the operation. The company is doing so as its funding costs drop by $1.2 billion in less than five months, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show, as the extent of Chavez’s illness became more apparent. That’s the difference in interest payments between what PDVSA was paying at year-end and May 3, based on its $26.5 billion of bonds outstanding, Bloomberg data show.
The Venezuelan president has undergone three operations and several rounds of chemotherapy and radiation treatments in Cuba since June, fueling speculation that his illness is worse than he’s admitting. On April 30, he sought congressional permission to leave for more than five more days as he continues cancer treatments. He maintains that he’ll be able to seek reelection in an October election.
While the debt would likely rally dramatically if Chavez were no longer Venezuela’s leader, it would sell off as the nation became mired in civil unrest, Zucaro said.
“Chavez has been the glue that’s held Venezuela together for the past 13 years,” he said. “Without Chavez, how do you keep that glue together?”
Gradual Sale
PDVSA has supplied the Venezuelan government with more than 50 percent of its revenue through royalties and tax payments, according to the Feb. 3 Fitch report. The government changed the company’s charter and mission statement in 2008 to allow it direct participation in developing the nation’s health care, education and agricultural programs, Fitch said in the report.
The company said its total revenue last year was $124.75 billion, up from $94.14 billion in 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Its corporate credit rating is B1 from Moody’s, four steps below investment grade, and B+ from Fitch.
PDVSA’s bonds dropped on May 4 as U.S. employers added fewer jobs than forecast, the cost of oil fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since February and amid reports of the planned $3 billion of debt issuance this month.
Prices of PDVSA’s securities due in November 2021 climbed 6.6 cents in 10 days, to 84.1 cents on the dollar on May 3, according to Trace. During that time, similarly-dated debt from Petroleo Brasileiro rose 0.2 cent and BP’s 2021 notes increased 0.05 cent, the data show.
The new bonds PDVSA plans to issue will probably be sold gradually through the central bank’s currency market, avoiding a glut, Victor Sierra, a managing director at Torino Capital LLC in New York, said in an e-mail.
 
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