Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 1 (3 lettori)

probabilità recovery

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tommy271

tommy271

Forumer storico
Petróleo venezolano cerró la semana en 42,51 dólares


Con el registro de esta semana, el precio medio de venta del petróleo venezolano en lo que va de año se sitúa en 33,88 dólares, por debajo de los 44,65 del año pasado y mucho más lejos de los 88,42 dólares de 2014


EFE 28 de octubre 2016 - 01:50 pm







El precio del barril de petróleo venezolano perdió 5 centavos y cerró la semana en 42,51 dólares, de acuerdo con el informe que difundió hoy el Ministerio de Petróleo y Minería.

"La preocupación por el exceso de oferta petrolera en los mercados y el fortalecimiento del dólar ejercieron presión sobre los precios de los crudos durante la semana", reza el informe semanal de la cartera petrolera de Venezuela.

Con el registro de esta semana, el precio medio de venta del petróleo venezolano en lo que va de año se sitúa en 33,88 dólares, por debajo de los 44,65 del año pasado y mucho más lejos de los 88,42 dólares de 2014.

El Ministerio de Petróleo informó el comportamiento de los precios de otros crudos, entre ellos el Brent, que también registró una depreciación al pasar de 51,84 a 50,90 dólares, mientras que el precio del crudo Intermedio de Texas (WTI) pasó de 50,52 a 50,05 dólares.

Entretanto, pudo observarse una pérdida de casi un dólar en la cesta de la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) que pasó de 48,53 a 47,81 dólares el barril.

Venezuela, uno de los principales países exportadores de crudo y que produce alrededor de 2,5 millones de barriles de petróleo diarios, ha experimentado una curva de descenso en los precios del hidrocarburo que comenzó en septiembre de 2014, cuando se cotizaba a 90,19 dólares el barril.
 
Near

Near

Forumer storico
Kain ha scritto:
Venezuela Econ on Twitter

Brutta news riserve calate di 909 e ora sono a 10898
Clicca per allargare...


oh kain ma che fai?
posti notizie brutte ?:eek:

lascia fare a tommy !
lui ha la bicicletta nera tu no !:squalo:

comunque vuol dire che hanno pagato la 2016, (in ritardo direi, una volta le riserve calavano qualche giorno prima della scadenza, credo sia questa la bad news :confused:)

a meno che non abbiano "prelevato" anche il pago della 2017 per dopo i Santi
:benedizione:
 
Miqui

Miqui

Forumer attivo
Near ha scritto:
oh kain ma che fai?
posti notizie brutte ?:eek:

lascia fare a tommy !
lui ha la bicicletta nera tu no !:squalo:

comunque vuol dire che hanno pagato la 2016, (in ritardo direi, una volta le riserve calavano qualche giorno prima della scadenza, credo sia questa la bad news :confused:)

a meno che non abbiano "prelevato" anche il pago della 2017 per dopo i Santi
:benedizione:
Clicca per allargare...
Il problema è che non dovevano uscire dalla bcv...
 
GiveMeLeverage

GiveMeLeverage

& I will remove the world
Articolo "alternativo" di Mark Weisbrot
www.truth-out.org/news/item/38094-venezuela-s-economic-crisis-does-it-mean-that-the-left-has-failed


Chi è Weisbrot:
Mark Weisbrot is codirector of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. and president of Just Foreign Policy. He is also the author of Failed: What the "Experts" Got Wrong About the Global Economy
[..]
The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) has assembled a team of economists, headed by former president of the Dominican Republic, Leonel Fernández, which has presented a set of proposals. (Full disclosure: I am one of the members of this team.)


Cosa non va nell'economia venezuelana:
- exchange rate system
- subsidies (gasoline, electricity, gas)
- price controls & price distortions
[..]
What this means is that the Venezuelan economy cannot recover under the current exchange rate system. It is stuck in recession. Furthermore, the multiple exchange rate system, with its vast differences between the different rates, creates an enormous incentive for corruption. Anyone with access to official dollars can multiply their income by 100 simply by selling them on the black market, which is completely accessible to almost anyone.

But the official exchange rate system is only one way that the government's dollar revenue is lost. Gasoline, even after the recent price increases, is about 6 Bs. per liter -- or about one US cent per liter at the SIMADI exchange rate. Electricity and gas are also heavily subsidized. These subsidies cost the government more than 13 percent of GDP. For comparison, the total income tax revenue (individual plus corporate) of the US federal government in 2015 was about 10.6 percent of GDP. At the same time, there are price controls that are difficult or impossible to maintain in the current economic situation. In 2015, overall consumer prices increased by 180 percent; yet food prices, which are subject to price controls, increased by 300 percent. This is a pretty clear demonstration that price controls are not working.

Millions of Venezuelans now make their living from arbitrage of some sort -- from waiting in line for hours for a small allocation of subsidized food and reselling it, to trading currency on the parallel market, to selling stolen goods. Even a dictatorship with considerable repressive power to crack down on all illegal transactions would have trouble maintaining a functioning economy with the magnitude of these price distortions. But Venezuela is not a dictatorship; in fact, the state is very weak in terms of law enforcement.


Cosa propone di fare:
The most obvious change that is needed is to unify the multiple exchange rate system. This should be done quickly, and in one step. The government can auction a fixed amount of dollars each day, with the price determined by supply and demand. Although allowing the currency to float seems scary to many people, the price of the dollar would undoubtedly stabilize at something considerably less than the current parallel market rate of about 1,000. A floating rate is also the only way to avoid wasting scarce foreign exchange reserves in a futile attempt to maintain an overvalued fixed rate.

Since devaluations generally lead to price increases, it would be necessary to protect people from any rising costs of essential goods, including food. This could be done with a vast expansion of the government's current system of the Tarjeta Misiones Socialistas (a card system providing direct subsidies to lower-income families), which would give people a large discount that could compensate for any price increases. This system would be in place before the unification of the exchange rate.

The energy subsidies could then be phased out more gradually over the next 18 months. To make this economically and politically acceptable, the additional government revenue as energy prices are allowed to rise would be added to the tarjetas (cards). This would be a net gain for the vast majority of Venezuelans. Some price controls -- including those that do not allow producers to meet their costs -- would be phased out.

Other measures to protect people's living standards would include indexing wages to inflation, and creating a temporary public works program to create employment. These could be financed by a wealth tax similar to one in Colombia, and by a tax on financial transactions.

The government can help finance the transition by selling some of its foreign assets. At the same time, it will have to restructure its debt in order to reduce the $17 billion of debt payments (interest and principal) that would otherwise be due over the next year and a half.
 
GiveMeLeverage

GiveMeLeverage

& I will remove the world
Nel complesso mi sembrano proposte di buon senso, di cui si è parlato tante volte anche qui sul forum.
Al di là della fattibilità di alcuni dettagli (p.e. la vendita degli asset esteri non so quanto possa portare, visto che ormai avranno ipotecato anche le sedie negli uffici e le insegne), mi chiedo se non sia troppo tardi per realizzarle senza una forte discontinuità nell'attuale quadro politico.
Un governo ormai molto indebolito rischierebbe di darsi il colpo di grazia promulgando una serie di misure necessarie quanto impopolari tra i supporters che gli sono rimasti.
 
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