Appunti e spunti

[solomare]

speriamo di no un pareggino lo possiamo strappare
vediamo che succede prossima settimana ..unico neo negativo è saipem ,ma non mi preoccupo + di tanto stò usando i loro soldi....ogni trade che chiudo prossima settimana lo riverso shortando la maiala se penso che da inizio anno questa zoccola mi è costata 1100€ +0- quindi entro fine dicembre la devo portare in gain... forse prossima weekly uso i mini su questo titolo UNICO NEO che non è un certificato liquido...quindi sarò SOLO CONTRO il MM vedremo con calma doani pomeriggio se posso..di mattina sono super impegnato
il ciclo settimananle di EDGE è così però ultima settimana non ci ha preso....
io ho sempre soliti livelli spartiacque 1122 1158..ma non longherò sopra 1158...anzi molto probabilmente incremeterò gli shortanche Pretcher dice la stessa cosa.....ma lui ha i soldi io no

ecco cosa aveva scritto Perreault
Here's the latest weekend update from Serge Perreault, a Chartered Accountant and market technician located near Montreal, Canada. Serge has been following the S&P 500 index in a series of weekly charts. Serge explains:
This week, the S&P 500 remained flat, on nearly-average volume and on weak momentum (RSI in overbought territory too). At least we can now see a direction towards the downtrend resistance (1). Technically, however, the downtrend from 2007 (log scale), would only be reversed after breaking the next resistance (2).

 

[solomare]

heck out the collapsing yields, especially in the shorter maturities, in the second chart. The bond market is clearly worried about the economy. The first chart is an overlay of the CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year Treasury Note (TNX) and the S&P 500. Over the timeframe shown below there has been a weak correlation between the two assets classes, with yields tending to lead changes in direction.



10-year yields have fallen dramatically since the 2010 high of 3.99 set on April 5th, three weeks before the S&P 500 2010 peak on April 23rd. They had rebounded since the 2.48 close on August 31. But the last nine sessions have seen a significant decline.
The next chart shows the daily performance of several Treasuries and the Fed Funds Rate since 2007. The source for the yields is the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates from the US Department of the Treasury. The yields on the shorter maturities have taken a nosedive, with the 2- and 5-year note yields hitting historic lows.

For a long-term view of weekly Treasury yields, also focusing on the 10-year, see my Treasury Yields in Perspective, which includes a chart series I update monthly or more frequently if warranted.

 

[generali1984]

Ciao SOLO !
sempre in forma e pronto per la pugna vedo
bene perchè c'è da star sempre pronti che tirano venti di guerra

ciao

 

[solomare]

Ciao SOLO !
sempre in forma e pronto per la pugna vedo
bene perchè c'è da star sempre pronti che tirano venti di guerra

ciao

uuuuue grande ..sono pronto guardavo il consumo metrico azzooo siamo messi malissimo..posto SOLO QUESTO CHE SI CAPISCE MEGLIO TU HAI MESSO IL COSTUME PER IL SALTO DAL TRAMPOLINO

October 1, 2010 weekly update
Today the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) registered negative growth for the 17th consecutive week, coming in at -7.8, an improvement over last week's -8.7. The latest weekly number is based on data through September 24. The magnitude of decline from the peak in October 2009 is unprecedented in the Institute's published data back to 1967. Recently, however, the Institute has disclosed that two earlier decades of data not available to the general public contained comparable declines in WLI growth (in 1951 and 1966) when no recession followed (HT Barry Ritholtz).

The Published Record
The ECRI WLI growth metric has had a respectable (but by no means perfect) record for forecasting recessions. The next chart shows the correlation between the WLI, GDP and recessions.

A significant decline in the WLI has been a leading indicator for six of the seven recessions since the 1960s. It lagged one recession (1981-1982) by nine weeks. The WLI did turned negative 17 times when no recession followed, but 14 of those declines were only slightly negative (-0.1 to -2.4) and most of them reversed after relatively brief periods.
Three of the false negatives were deeper declines. The Crash of 1987 took the Index negative for 68 weeks with a trough of -6.8. The Financial Crisis of 1998, which included the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, took the Index negative for 23 weeks with a trough of -4.5.
The third significant false negative came near the bottom of the bear market of 2000-2002, about nine months after the brief recession of 2001. At the time, the WLI seemed to be signaling a double-dip recession, but the economy and market accelerated in tandem in the spring of 2003, and a recession was avoided.
The Latest WLI Decline
The question, of course, is whether the latest WLI decline is a leading indicator of a recession or a false negative. The published index has never dropped to the current level without the onset of a recession. The deepest decline without a near-term recession was in the Crash of 1987, when the index slipped to -6.8.
Can the Fed take steps to reduce the risk of a near-term recession? The next chart includes an overlay of the Federal Funds Rate.

Lowering the rate has been a primary tool for stimulating a weak economy. As the last chart shows, that tool is not available in our current situation.

 

[kuelo]

speriamo di no un pareggino lo possiamo strappare
vediamo che succede prossima settimana ..unico neo negativo è saipem ,ma non mi preoccupo + di tanto stò usando i loro soldi....ogni trade che chiudo prossima settimana lo riverso shortando la maiala se penso che da inizio anno questa zoccola mi è costata 1100€ +0- quindi entro fine dicembre la devo portare in gain... forse prossima
io ho sempre soliti livelli spartiacque 1122 1158..ma non longherò sopra 1158...anzi molto probabilmente incremeterò gli shortanche Pretcher dice la stessa cosa.....ma lui ha i soldi io no

...smettila di shortarla se non scende piu'...e come quazzo facciam se no' a ricomprarla a 16? ....porca trota...io li' l'ho venduta ...maremmamaialaladra

questo vedo che lo conosci ....http://dshort.com/

 

[solomare]

...smettila di shortarla se non scende piu'...e come quazzo facciam se no' a ricomprarla a 16? ....porca trota...io li' l'ho venduta ...maremmamaialaladra

questo vedo che lo conosci ....http://dshort.com/

HEHEHEH IO CONOSCO TUTTO se lo conosci allora legglo con attenzione studiati il consumo metrico..e i graf di Perroult

 

[kuelo]

uuuuue grande ..sono pronto guardavo il consumo metrico azzooo siamo messi malissimo..posto SOLO QUESTO CHE SI CAPISCE MEGLIO TU HAI MESSO IL COSTUME PER IL SALTO DAL TRAMPOLINO

October 1, 2010 weekly update
Today the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) registered negative growth for the 17th consecutive week, coming in at -7.8, an improvement over last week's -8.7. The latest weekly number is based on data through September 24. The magnitude of decline from the peak in October 2009 is unprecedented in the Institute's published data back to 1967. Recently, however, the Institute has disclosed that two earlier decades of data not available to the general public contained comparable declines in WLI growth (in 1951 and 1966) when no recession followed (HT Barry Ritholtz).

The Published Record
The ECRI WLI growth metric has had a respectable (but by no means perfect) record for forecasting recessions. The next chart shows the correlation between the WLI, GDP and recessions.

A significant decline in the WLI has been a leading indicator for six of the seven recessions since the 1960s. It lagged one recession (1981-1982) by nine weeks. The WLI did turned negative 17 times when no recession followed, but 14 of those declines were only slightly negative (-0.1 to -2.4) and most of them reversed after relatively brief periods.
Three of the false negatives were deeper declines. The Crash of 1987 took the Index negative for 68 weeks with a trough of -6.8. The Financial Crisis of 1998, which included the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, took the Index negative for 23 weeks with a trough of -4.5.
The third significant false negative came near the bottom of the bear market of 2000-2002, about nine months after the brief recession of 2001. At the time, the WLI seemed to be signaling a double-dip recession, but the economy and market accelerated in tandem in the spring of 2003, and a recession was avoided.
The Latest WLI Decline
The question, of course, is whether the latest WLI decline is a leading indicator of a recession or a false negative. The published index has never dropped to the current level without the onset of a recession. The deepest decline without a near-term recession was in the Crash of 1987, when the index slipped to -6.8.
Can the Fed take steps to reduce the risk of a near-term recession? The next chart includes an overlay of the Federal Funds Rate.

Lowering the rate has been a primary tool for stimulating a weak economy. As the last chart shows, that tool is not available in our current situation.

L' ECRI e' un po' ripresa pero' ...se mai ci si dovrebbe domandare....

 

[solomare]

HEHEHEH IO CONOSCO TUTTO se lo conosci allora legglo con attenzione studiati il consumo metrico..e i graf di Perroult

bon metto SOLO questo

October 1, 2010 new update Note from dshort: The CMI charts are now updated through September 29. For the past week the Weighted Composite Index has increased its rate of contraction. The Growth Index, which had reached a plateau of contraction, is nudging to the downside. Given the weak Conference Board Consumer Confidence reading earlier this week, the CMI indexes could be at risk of an accelerated contraction. The CMI indexes are expected to be leading indicators. Are they serving as the canary in the economic coal mine? Next month's advance estimate of GDP (Oct. 29) will provide a clue.

The first chart below is a new member of my CMI chart family — designed to show more clearly the latest movement of the Weighted Composite Index and the 91-day moving average Growth Index.

Click for a larger image​

See the Institute's September 18th commentary for more background.

 

[kuelo]

HEHEHEH IO CONOSCO TUTTO se lo conosci allora legglo con attenzione studiati il consumo metrico..e i graf di Perroult

in teoria e' tutto giusto...in pratica no...a quelli je basta da' corrente alle macchinette ...che tichette tacchette, ticchete...sale...sale...pian pianino.....ce so SOLO loro dentro....voglia di scendere?....forse da meta' della prox ...base 1100 spx troppo importante...a star li ne devon pagare abbastanza....ma fino a martedi' direi che si sta qui

 

[solomare]

L' ECRI e' un po' ripresa pero' ...se mai ci si dovrebbe domandare....

ripresa?? ina ina dopo il crollo verticale è il problema non è SOLO quello lo strumento per stimolare è aiutare l'economia erano i tassi d'interesse in questi casi venivano tagliati..ora se leggi bene l'articolo lo dice chiaramente non abbiamo + questo strumento tassi sono a zero......