Il columbiano due opzioni bullish e bearish..lui prefersice conta bearish..ma da nn escludere una 3 di 3 up devastente per gli shorters..quindi giusto metterlo
lui invece aveva postato i suoi 4 scenari 10 giorni fà..e forse quello che si avviciana di + al mio pensiero che qualcunque csa succeda avremo un forte ribasso..quindi secondo mio pensiero rischiare per un long adesso su essepi parlo SOLO di essepi.. % alla mano sopra abbiamo adesso poco spazio sotto molto..anche su scenario + rialzista che è il blue
che sul breve poi sarebbe il + ribassista...
Scenarios / Wave Counts
[Blue - long term bullish] Based on this count, the end of the current advance, likely in early 2011, is the end of primary wave [1]-up of a new multi-year bull market. A deep wave [2]-down correction is likely. The subsequent wave [3]-up advance will push the market to new highs. Targets for the top is around current levels or around 1290 in SPX.
[Red and Pink - long term bearish] Based on this count, the Hope Rally has additional upside potential in price as well in time. A near term pullback is likely. The difference between the two scenarios is whether the proposed near term pullback is (very) shallow (Red) or meaningful (Pink), as illustrated in
Chart 1. Targets for the top is around 1350.
[Gray - long term bearish] Based on this count, the end of the current advance, likely in early 2011, is the end of the rebound. The bear market that resumes will likely push the market to below the 2008-2009 low.
[Other - long term range-bound] Another possibility is a drawn-out side-ways market with a relatively large range.
Subjective Probability
The long term bearish counts, collectively, are moderate more likely than the long term bullish count (gray) outlined above.
Between the bearish red and pink counts, the pink count is moderately more likely than the red count.
http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2010/12/mtu-weekend-ed-hope-rally-update-2.html#links