Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 2 (3 lettori)

[giub]

SIMON WATKINS: Greek default is definitely on the cards... and it could help

By Simon Watkins

Last updated at 2:00 PM on 25th September 2011

Read more: SIMON WATKINS: Greek default definitely on the cards | This is Money
Financial markets have long regarded a default by Greece as the most likely outcome of the current crisis.
A recent research note by analysts at American investment bank Citigroup suggested the chances of Greece avoiding a default were just five per cent.
But if that default can be managed in a controlled way – and be accompanied by unequivocal steps to stop the crisis spreading further or to only a limited number of other eurozone states – then it could actually help stabilise markets by bringing the uncertainty to an end.
The best outcome, according to analysts, would be a controlled default in this way.
Citigroup’s analysis, released ten days ago, suggests an orderly default could be allowed to include not just Greece but also Portugal and Ireland.
For it to be orderly for financial markets it would also have to be clear that none of the countries was going to leave the eurozone.
It would be crucial in such a controlled crash to ensure that support measures were in place to stop the default sparking a series of knock-on crises in larger states such as Spain or Italy, and in the banking system. In their note, Citigroup’s analysts commented: ‘Default is the most likely in our view but how orderly?
This will be dependent on the size and scope of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), European Central Bank (ECB) action and availability of money to recapitalise banks that are potentially made insolvent by default.’
If the authorities can convince markets that the European Financial Stability Fund will be large enough to cope with any knock-on effects, then an approved default by Greece or even one or two other smaller eurozone nations could bring more stability.
The safety measures will, however, have to be huge to be sufficiently convincing.
The EFSF will also have to have a remit capable of stemming the spread of crisis. As well as being large enough to provide bail-outs for other eurozone countries, it may also have to be ready to provide capital to banks which are hit by major losses from those defaults – a step beyond anything yet carried out by the fund.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde recently shocked some eurozone politicians by saying that Europe’s banks would need more capital.
With that concern already voiced by such a senior figure, it would be essential that capital was clearly available in the EFSF if a Greek default is to be allowed in a controlled manner.
Citigroup’s analysis was also unequivocal about the risks if a Greek default turns into a disorderly rout, which they said would lead to a ‘severe’ banking crisis.

​

​

 

[giub]

There's no secret plan': France bank chief denies £1.7trillion backroom deal to save the eurozone

• Christian Noyer insists there are no plans to recapitalise French banks
• George Osbourne denies reports that G20 will allow Greece to default on £340 billion debt
• Rumours of 'firebreak' plan to stop crisis spreading to Italy and Spain

By Dan Atkinson and Glen Owen Last updated at 1:42 PM on 25th September 2011

The head of the Bank of France has denied rumours of a shady backroom deal to save the eurozone and allow Greece to default on it's debts.
Yesterday Chancellor George Osbourne was forced to issue a hastily drafted statement after a highly placed British Treasury official outlined behind-the-scenes moves allowing a Greek default.
The audacious plan would involve Europe’s banks being recapitalised with tens of billions of euros to reassure the markets.
Now Christian Noyer, chief of France's central Bank has said French banks are solid and there is no plan to recapitalise.
He told French Sunday newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche: 'They are very solid.
'They have a solid capital base, comparable to other European banks and they are profitable... None of them are hiding any toxic assets.'
Asked to comment on reports about a plan to recapitalise French banks, he said: 'There is no plan, and we don’t need one.'
During an informal briefing at a restaurant in Washington – where the World Bank and International Monetary Fund are devising strategies to cope with the financial crisis – the treasury official admitted that Greece’s creditors would lose half of their money, dealing a potentially devastating blow to the global economy.
But after accounts of the briefing flashed around the world, Mr Osborne was forced to say: ‘No one here has put forward a plan for that. Greece has got a programme and needs to implement it. However, it is also clear that the eurozone needs to deal with its own issues.
‘There’s a recognition here that the global debt crisis has entered a dangerous phase, but I am also optimistic we have made steps towards resolving it.'
Although Ministers are officially still insisting publicly that the country should honour its obligations, behind closed doors, the G20 has agreed Greece will never be able to repay its staggering £350billion of government debt.
Preparations are now well-advanced for a ‘managed default’ under which Athens will receive additional aid from eurozone countries of about £5billion to help pay its bills for another few months.
The extra cash should also stop the problem spreading to other debt-laden eurozone economies such as Italy, Portugal and Spain. Announcement: Chancellor George Osborne insists Greece does have a recovery plan and must carry it out
If Greece was allowed to go bust immediately – with no extra cash – the markets would then turn on those other economies.
During the period the £5billion will buy, the European Union and America will attempt to put together a war chest of up to £2trillion.
As one senior source at the talks said: ‘We need time to put together the firepower to defend other eurozone countries. After that, Greek debt will probably be written down by about 50 per cent.’
It means investors holding Greek bonds would lose half their money at a stroke.
A Greek default would potentially lead to the country leaving the euro and even cause the collapse of the entire single currency project.
The panic started after a dinner at The Palm steakhouse, on Friday evening, during which financial journalists dined with G20 officials.
Yesterday morning, a Breaking News banner flashing on Sky News that ‘G20 ministers were preparing for a Greek default’, sent the Treasury into a panic, with one aide flatly denying to The Mail on Sunday that any such plan had been discussed.
Within an hour, the officials had admitted that ‘such scenarios had been aired behind the scenes’.
Mr Osborne then issued his statement in a swiftly arranged television interview in which he stressed that ‘no plan had been put forward’.
France under President Sarkozy and Germany under Chanceller Merkel are said to have devised a £1.7 trillion plan to save the eurozone
Under the behind-closed-doors strategy, being driven by the Germans and French, the ‘firebreak’ being built around Greece would also be extended to Portugal and Ireland to prevent the crisis from spreading to Italy and Spain.
Europe’s banks would also have to be recapitalised with tens of billions of euros to reassure the markets.
In return, the Germans are understood to be demanding that the private sector creditors of Greece would bear a loss of as much as 50 per cent – more than double the 21 per cent proposal currently on the table.
Officials hope the plan would stem the panic in the markets.
Th U.K. would contribute through its membership of the IMF meaning it would cost British taxpayers considerably more than the £1bn agreed under the last bail-out plan.
Britain’s banks have only limited exposure to Greece, but would face bigger writedowns if Ireland were also to default.
But Christian Noyer, head of the Bank of France denied there are no plans to recapitalise French banks saying they can cope with Greek debt.
An uncontrolled Irish default could be highly damaging across Europe.
Gerard Lyons, chief economist at international bank Standard Chartered, said: ‘If they can raise a fund big enough to fight contagion to other countries, then a Greek default could be the best of a bad job.
But it would need to be a big fund, perhaps £2trillion.’
Recent debt defaults include Russia in 1998 and Argentina in 2001, but Greece will be the first developed nation to go bust in recent times and the first default ever by a member of the European Union.
Elsewhere at the occasionally tetchy IMF meeting, Mr Osborne demanded that heavily indebted countries follow Britain’s lead and ‘put in place credible plans’ to slash their borrowings.
Treasury officials are on tenterhooks to see how investors will react to the IMF meeting when markets re-open tomorrow.
One senior City investment manager said: ‘We are treading on ever-thinner ice and I can hear it cracking.’

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ackroom-deal-save-eurozone.html#ixzz1YyKjZFqn
​

 

[apino]

La situazione non è certa, e anche senza che olandese Knot ( BCE ) parlasse di rischio default o che analoga notizia fosse riportata sul quotidiano greco di alcuni gg fà si sapeva che la situazione è grave e che tale rischio c'è....
Tuttavia dopo questo lo stesso Knot ha detto che si tratta di un'ipotesi.
Default ci sono stati, ma non sono stati annunciati e lasciati sul filo del rasoio per oltre un anno e mezzo... anche se è vero che è la prima volta che capita in una realtà come quella dell'UE.

La Troika ha continuato il suo lavoro, facendo pressioni sulla Grecia, lo stesso hanno fatto i mercati. Nulla è certa, ma sembra che tutto indichi che quello che viene fatto è per cercare di uscire da questa situazione.
Gli effetti sociale di un paese a due passi dagli altri membri dell'UE sarebbero durissimi, ed è ovvio che ci sarebbero ripercussioni a catena sugli altri (perdite per le banche, i privati che corrono a ritirare i lro risparmi...). D'altra parte sia la BCE, l'UE e il FMI non hanno neppure voluto fare finanziamenti a perdere alla Grecia (nonostante che il suo costo, in termini di capitalizzazione a breve sarebbe stato minore), ed il messaggio è chiaro: se la Grecia si vuole salvare lo deve fare con aiuti esterni, ma mettendoci dentro il suo massimo impegno.
A questo punto resta da vedere quale sarà la valutazione della troika nei prossimi giorni, attendiamo i voti della prossima settimana, e poi la tranche e lo swap: se viene effettuato ciò, non sarà per dare ossigeno per pochi mesi più, ma per cercare di salvare il paziente, ed a quel punto il destino delle brevi (marzo e maggio 2012) sarà più chiaro..
Nel frattempo, come qualcuno ha già prospettato, anche io ho il dubbio che questa situazione possa essere utilizzata per fare buyback con importi minimi e giornalieri ma su quasi tutte le scadenze e su tutti i secondari europei... a prezzi di saldo... E' vero che gli scambi giornalieri sul mot o tlx sono bassi (ma alcuni giorni hanno superato anche 250.000 euro sul singolo titolo), ma è anche vero che il bond a scadenza marzo 2012 è emesso per 14,5 miliardi, quello di maggio per 5 miliari. Se andasse in porto lo swap, mettiamo all'80% rimarrebbero ad es. 2,9 miliardi a marzo e 1 miliardo a maggio, su cui potrebbero già farci buyback, ripeto, con pochi acquisti giornalieri ma costanti sui tutti i vari secondari e con prezzi di poco superiori ai 50 nell'arco degli ultimi 30 gg....

Ergo: fai un'analisi razionale.
Il problema é che i tedeschi, che si credono iper-razionali, sono di fatto incapaci di razionalità.

La Germania, é bene ricordarlo.. dichiaró guerra lo stesso anno agli Stati Uniti e all'Unione Sovietica (con le conseguenze che si sono viste).. solo 25 anni dopo aver perso una guerra simile (con conseguente ascesa al potere dei nazisti).

Se potessero.. lo rifarebbero.

 

[amorgos34]

il problema é che quei "disordini di piazza" furono pagati dalla gang mafiosa che voleva sostituire De La Rua al governo, e svalutare il peso del 70%.. dopo aver esportato i loro denari in dollari a 1:1.. per poterli re-importare triplicati in valore.
Il conto come di costume, é stato pagato dai risparmiatori e dal "popolo bue".
Comunque.. siamo OT.

Può essere tutto vero, ma visto che era la terza volta che Andrea rimarcava come verità, una cosa non vera , mi sembrava giusto eccepire. Puoi aver ragione su tutto (la mia opinione, permettimelo è diversa): ma è un dato di fatto che i morti in Argentina ci sono stati PRIMA del default. Non giochiamo però a dire che si è OT quando si dicono cose che non piacciono e a tralasciare l'OT quando invece pare essere più consono al proprio pensiero.

 

[METHOS]

fonte?
boh non spendono 300 mld per comprare tutto il debito greco e ne mettono in cantiere 3000 ?!

Ho pensato la stessa cosa. Questi sono pazzi...

 

[ferdo]

Ho pensato la stessa cosa. Questi sono pazzi...

con 3000 mld si comprano tutti e tre, Grecia + PG e Irlanda e resta ancora da acquistare qualcosa di italia e spagna
mah!!! non sanno più che scrivere

 

[apino]

Tra l'altro portanto a zero la credibilità della Merkel e gli altri, che fine a venerdì ha sostenuto che stanno lavorando per evitare un default della Grecia, e non a creare barriere per arginare effetti di un default della Grecia??

Ho pensato la stessa cosa. Questi sono pazzi...

 

[Brisico]

Facendo haircut o ristrutturazione, è inammissibile che la Grecia continui a rimanere in Eurozona...booo... facendo cosi è troppo facile per loro!

 

[Brisico]

Se mi devono rubare il 50% o 70% dei soldi che ho prestato che almeno uscissero dall'Europa!!!

 

[giub]

Meltdown fears for euro as G20 makes plans for Athens to default on debt

Finance Minister signals Greece may opt for 50 per cent writedown on bonds as top economist warns Spain and Italy could be forced out of single currency
By Ben Chu in Washington and Margareta Pagano in London

Sunday, 25 September 2011

The world's leading economic powers are moving towards an acceptance that Greece will default on up to half of its €350bn sovereign debts, according to reports from meetings in Washington yesterday. They are believed to be working on concrete plans to deal with these huge losses and their repercussions. This news – almost regardless of any words of qualification that emerge this weekend – will have a resounding effect on the febrile markets when they open on Monday.
Unconfirmed reports circulated yesterday that G20 leaders have recognised that the Athens government cannot cope with the scale of its debt burden and that there will eventually need to be a considerable reduction in the face value of Greek debt. The Finance Minister, Evangelos Venizelos, was quoted by two Greek newspapers as suggesting that a 50 per cent writedown for the holders of Greek bonds would be the "best option".
The priority for national policymakers now, apparently, is to contain the impact by recapitalising banks and boosting the powers of the European bailout fund by the time of the next G20 meeting in November.
Last night, the Chancellor, George Osborne, said: "There is a recognition here that the global debt crisis has entered a dangerous phase." Asked whether the G20 was preparing for a Greek default, he tried to dampen speculation by saying: "No one has put forward a plan for a Greek default."
The reports that officials are planning for default coincided with a warning from Dr Nouriel Roubini, the economist known as "Dr Doom" since he predicted the 2008 credit meltdown, that unless European leaders beef up the resources of the eurozone bailout fund, Italy and Spain could be forced out of the euro by panicking markets.
The US economist said in an interview: "Italy and Spain are toast, unless we have a tripling or four times as much of official resources to backstop them." In the interview with Emerging Markets magazine, he said that another global downturn is now inevitable and that the only open question is how severe it will be. "At this point the debate is not whether we're going to have a double-dip recession or not. The double dip has started. The only question is whether we are going to have a mild recession in advanced economies or whether we're going to have a severe recession... The answer depends on whether you can keep Italy and Spain."
G20 leaders, meeting in Washington yesterday, pledged to take decisive action to halt the crisis over eurozone sovereign debt, which has triggered turmoil in the financial market after the delay in approving the Greek bailout package agreed in July.
This followed an earlier pledge made by the G20 finance ministers on Friday to "maximise" the impact of the bailout fund, although they gave no specifics.
The US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, stressed in a BBC interview that the costs of the crisis are growing with each day the eurozone leaders fail to take decisive action. "These things have the classic dynamic that the longer you wait, the harder it is to solve, the more expensive it is to solve. There's a huge premium on early action." But he also claimed that the penny has finally dropped for European politicians. "I believe, on the basis of all my private conversations, that the leadership of Europe are going to move more forcefully and do what's necessary to reverse this erosion of confidence."
His view was echoed earlier in the week by Mr Osborne, who said: "The eurozone is the epicentre of the global problems. That is acknowledged by the eurozone themselves." However, the Chancellor rejected the suggestion that calls from the IMF's head, Christine Lagarde, this week for some countries to "do more" to accommodate growth in the short term should prompt a change of course from Britain in its deficit reduction programme. He said: "I'm very clear that we've got a plan, we're sticking to the plan."
Mr Osborne added that high borrowing levels were driving the current crisis. "It's all rooted in the ability of these countries to deal with their debt problems, a problem that we articulated in Britain 18 months ago. We got ahead of the curve."
The Chancellor went on to say that he is open to the idea of the Bank of England ring-fencing cash for loans to small or medium-sized firms that are in need of help to expand. There is a growing belief that the Bank of England will authorise another emergency injection of cash with a second round of "quantitative easing" – printing money. As much as £300bn may be pumped into the economy.
In a meeting on the sidelines of the IMF, Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, admitted that the current situation is more precarious than when Lehman Brothers collapsed. There was no longer the belief in the markets that countries such as Greece would not default on their debts, he said.
One of the plans being discussed is for the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) to be strengthened, possibly by guaranteeing bigger European Central Bank purchases of Spanish and Italian sovereign debt to try to insulate them from the Greek crisis.
Ms Lagarde also hinted at the idea that both the ECB and the EFSF should buy bonds to show greater resolve to calm the markets.
It was claimed yesterday that the rescue package would come largely from the EFSF, set up last year – of which Britain is not a member. That could mean some respite for British tax-payers, if not British banks.
The Sunday Telegraph suggested the total rescue could come at a cost of £1.75trn and includes plans devised by German and French officials to "ring fence the crisis" around the eurozone countries worst affected by the recession.

Meltdown fears for euro as G20 makes plans for Athens to default on debt - Business News, Business - The Independent