Da un report della banca greca EFG del 17/1:
The timely disbursement of the next official
loan tranche is of paramount importance for
implementing the PSI deal and avoiding a
disorderly default. Note here that Greece has
to redeem a €14.435bn 3-year sovereign
paper on March 20.
...
Suggested timetable for the implementation of debt
exchange deal and 2nd Greek bailout package
In what follows, we present an indicative timetable for the
timely implementation of the debt exchange and the sealing of
the 2nd bailout package agreed at the October 26-27 EU
Summit. The timetable discussed below is based on a number
of press reports and it purports to secure adequate State
financing, so as to avoid unforeseen liquidity shortages ahead
of the next sizeable bond redemption on March 20.
As things stand at this point, negotiations on the Greek bond
swap should optimally be completed over the next few weeks
so as to have a final deal available by February 10. A one week
notice could then be given to private bondholders to affirm
participation in the debt exchange. In the meantime, a
preliminary agreement on the new conditionality underling the
2nd bailout package should be signed between Greece and the
Troika to allow disbursement of the initial installment (€30bn)
of the next loan tranche (€89bn), which is required for
implementing the PSI scheme. If all goes well, the debt swap
will then be completed by the end of February.
Note also that according to the terms of the new rescue
package EU leaders agreed in late October, temporary EFSF
credit enhancements (of up to €35bn) will be provided to
ensure the eligibility of Greek bonds in ECB liquidity operations.
Such credit enhancements will purportedly remain in place for
as long as Greece’s sovereign ratings remain on “selective
default” due to the implementation of the debt swap.
Of course, all the above assume that a voluntary deal is reached
with private-sector bondholders and the debt swap generates
sufficient participation. If the latter conditions are not met, then
a non voluntary restructuring should not be technically
excluded, especially since the Greek government has already
signaled that it seriously considers introducing Collective
Action Clauses (CACs) in existing GGBs subject to Greek law (ca
90% of GGBs outstanding are subject to Greek law). Reportedly,
the mere introduction of CACs (via a parliamentary decision to
change the respective law) would not constitute a “credit event”.
However, their activation would likely trigger CDCs.
Based on the results of the debt swap (i.e., participation rate), the
terms of the new loan agreement would then be finalized.
According to the Minister of State, Pantelis Kapsis, the new
rescue deal and the corresponding implementation measures
supporting the package should be approved by the Greek
parliament by mid- March.
In the meantime, the above will also have to be endorsed by the
IMF and be ratified by the national parliaments of a number of
EU countries (i.e. Finland). Consequently, official lenders will give
the green light for the disbursement of the remaining
installment of the 7th loan tranche (€29bn for debt servicing &
deficit financing + €30bn for bank recapitalization to be
implemented in April).
Finally, assuming that everything goes according to plan, and
that Greece successfully completes the agreement for the 2
ndbailout package, national elections are likely to be held by late
April 2011.
http://www.eurobank.gr/Uploads/Reports/MACRO FOCUS January 17 2012.pdf