Obbligazioni MPS

[pietro17elettra]

Mps-Ita: la vendita puo' attendere (MF)
Oggi 08:10 - MF-DJ
MILANO (MF-DJ)--Per la seconda volta in sei anni, il Montepaschi si ritrova nel mezzo di una crisi di governo mentre e'' alle prese con un aumento di capitale fondamentale per la sua sopravvivenza. Nel dicembre 2016, scrive MF, la fine dell''esecutivo di Matteo Renzi causata dalla sconfitta al referendum costituzionale fece venire meno i presunti "anchor investor", come il fondo sovrano del Qatar, che avrebbero dovuto co-investire nella banca senese. finita che la banca venne salvata dallo Stato con 5,4 miliardi. Sei anni dopo, c''e'' in ballo un''ennesima ricapitalizzazione di Mps: 2,5 miliardi di euro che dovrebbero arrivare entro l''anno. A metterne circa 1,7 dovrebbe essere il Tesoro, il resto va trovato sul mercato. Ma quale investitore scegliera'' di scommettere ancora su Siena, senza una figura di garanzia come Mario Draghi a Palazzo Chigi? "Non lo so, vedremo. complicato", si lascia sfuggire un banchiere in azione tra Milano e Roma. In effetti i dossier che la fine improvvisa del governo Draghi lascia aperti sono pesanti: Montepaschi, Ita Airways, la rete unica in fibra ottica tra Tim e Open Fiber (vedere box a fianco), per citare le partite piu'' in vista. Senza considerare le nomine degli enti partecipati dallo Stato, che saranno appannaggio del nuovo esecutivo, cosi'' come l''individuazione del successore di Ignazio Visco alla Banca d''Italia. red/lab

MF-DJ NEWS

 

[pietro17elettra]

FACTBOX-Cosa rischia di restare incompiuto dopo le dimissioni di Draghi
21/07/2022 15:57 - RSF
AUMENTO DI CAPITALE MPS
Un obiettivo strategico del Tesoro sotto l'amministrazione Draghi è quello di aiutare Banca Mps (BMPS.MI) a raccogliere 2,5 miliardi di euro di liquidità entro la metà di novembre attraverso un aumento di capitale.

Secondo i banchieri, un voto in autunno potrebbe innervosire i mercati, rendendo difficile per la banca rivolgersi agli investitori privati per la parte della raccolta di capitale non coperta dallo Stato.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Tradotto da Alice Schillaci, Luca Fratangelo editing Maria Pia Quaglia)
(([email protected], +48587696614))

 

[Prudens]

ANALYSIS-Draghi's fall leaves Monte dei Paschi's cash call in the lurch

22/07/2022 16:50 RSF

* MPS plans to raise 2.5 bln euros in the autumn
* Treasury determined to push ahead with cash call
* Political turmoil further complicates efforts

By Valentina Za and Giuseppe Fonte
MILAN, July 22 (Reuters) - Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) (BMPS.MI)'s seventh capital raising in 14 years was always going to be a hard sell, now Italy's political crisis risks turning it into a mission impossible.

Even before Prime Minister Mario Draghi's national unity government collapsed this week, propelling Italy towards an election on Sept. 25, MPS CEO Luigi Lovaglio faced a tough job to convince investors the Tuscan bank is a more attractive buy than healthier, cheaper rivals in Italy.

State-controlled MPS, the world's oldest bank, plans to raise 2.5 billion euros ($2.6 billion) by mid-November to bolster capital and fund some 3,500 voluntary staff exits.

(news)

Italy's Treasury is determined to complete the capital raising despite the political chaos, a person with knowledge of the matter said.

And a lawmaker in the far-right Brothers of Italy party, which is likely to emerge as the largest single party in the next parliament, told Reuters they had no desire to take the blame for MPS's demise.

After burning through 15 billion euros of investors' money since 2008, MPS had to be rescued in 2017 in a 5.4 billion euro taxpayer bailout, leaving the government with a 64% stake.

After failing last year to sell MPS to UniCredit (UCG.MI), Italy had to ask the European Union to extend a re-privatisation deadline.

A successful fundraising was considered a priority for Draghi's executive, two people close to discussions around the transactions said, with investment banks eager to play a role on a deal considered of national importance.


TURNAROUND EXPERT
MPS needs private investors to fund the 900 million euro portion of the cash call that is not covered by the Treasury to comply with EU rules.

To attract buyers the Treasury in February bet on the turnaround skills of Lovaglio, a veteran UniCredit executive who built his career in eastern Europe and returned to Italy in 2018 to steer small bank Creval towards a merger - making it a takeover target for France's Credit Agricole .

But MPS is seeking to raise a sum more than five times its market value of 450 million euros, capping the discount at which it can sell new shares.

Analysts calculated the shares could be priced at a discount of just over 60% to the bank's tangible book value - making them more expensive than UniCredit's.

They say Lovaglio's needs to find anchor investors for the capital raising, using his cachet as one of Italy's most experienced banking executives.

"Without anchor investors, launching the capital increase amid the uncertainty stoked by the crisis becomes extremely hazardous," Bocconi University finance professor Stefano Gatti said.

Despite saying MPS remains open to all prospective investors, Lovaglio has dampened speculation the bank's commercial partners, French insurer AXA (CS.EQ) and asset manager Anima (ANIM.MI) could play a role in the capital increase.

People working on the deal say strengthening commercial partnerships to help deliver the cash call could diminish MPS' appeal as a merger partner - hampering efforts to market the new shares to buyers via the prospect of a tie-up.

The Treasury has ruled out seeking a waiver from the EU to pick up the tab in full were investors to shun the share issue, the person with knowledge of the matter said.

A lack of interest from investors would allow the four banks that have signed a pre-underwriting agreement, Bank of America, Citigroup, Credit Suisse and Mediobanca, to walk away from a contract that would see them mop up unsold shares, MPS has said.


TRICKY TIMING
Lovaglio told parliament earlier this month investor meetings on his new strategic plan for MPS had gone well but the outlook for Italian banks has since darkened. (news)

"What could go wrong is going wrong and (higher interest) rates are of little relief," Mediobanca Securities analysts said in a note on Friday.

The political turmoil has widened the gap between Italian and German government bond yields, which was already increasing in response to the Ukraine conflict and rising interest rates.

Italy's reliance on Russian gas and its large manufacturing sector have increased the chances of a recession in the country, where small businesses make up the backbone of the economy.

MPS is the most exposed to sovereign risks among Italy's leading banks. Its sovereign bond holdings still amount to 2.4 times its best-quality capital, though that is down from 6.3 times five years ago, based on JPMorgan's analysis.

Shares in MPS have more than halved in value since Lovaglio's appointment, against a 35% drop in Italy's banking index since then <.FTITLMS3010>.




"A further drop in MPS' stock price in the coming months ...

and the discount that new shares would need to offer may well push the hyper-dilution beyond what is reasonably acceptable," Gatti said, referring to the fact that amount MPS needs to raise is disproportionate to its market value.

mio commento: a questo punto FITD unica possibilità di trovare 900 mln

 

[frmaoro]

ANALISI-Mps, caduta Draghi rende incerto aumento di capitale

di Valentina Za e Giuseppe Fonte MILANO, 22 luglio (Reuters) - Il settimo aumento di capitale di Banca Mps in 14 anni, atteso in autunno, rischia di diventare una missione impossibile alla luce della crisi di governo e del ricorso alle urne il prossimo 25 di settembre. Anche prima che il governo di unità nazionale presieduto da Mario Draghi cadesse questa settimana, l'AD di Mps, Luigi Lovaglio, stava incontrando molte difficoltà nel convincere gli investitori sull'attrattività della banca toscana rispetto alle altre rivali italiane. La banca, controllata al 64% dal Tesoro, prevede di lanciareun aumento di capitale fino a 2,5 miliardi di euro da realizzare entro metà novembre, al fine di reperire fondi necessari per portare a termine il taglio di 3.500 posti di lavoro attraverso uscite volontarie. Il Tesoro è determinato a completare l'aumento nonostante il caos politico in atto, riferisce una fonte vicina alla situazione. Un parlamentare di Fratelli d'Italia, partito all'opposizione e che i sondaggi danno come primo partito nel prossimo Parlamento, ha detto a Reuters che il suo schieramento non ha alcun desiderio di prendersi la colpa per una debacle della banca. Dopo avere bruciato 15 miliardi di euro degli investitori a partire dal 2008, Mps è stata costretta a ricorrere a un salvataggio costato ai contribuenti 5,4 miliardi. Lo scorso anno, a seguito del fallimento dell'ipotesi di accordo con Unicredit , l'Italia ha dovuto chiedere alla Unione europea di estendere la scadenza dei termini per la privatizzazione dell'istituto senese. Secondo due fonti vicine al dossier, il successo dell'aumento era una priorità per l'esecutivo Draghi, con le banche d'investimento pronte a giocare un ruolo nell'operazione considerata di importanza nazionale. Per leggere l'analisi completa in lingua inglese cliccare (Versione italiana Giancarlo Navach, editing Gianluca Semeraro)(([email protected]; +39 06 8030 7735)

 

[pietro17elettra]

Analysis: Draghi's fall leaves Monte dei Paschi's cash call in the lurch

Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) 's seventh capital raising in 14 years was always going to be a hard sell, now Italy's political crisis risks turning it into a mission impossible.

www.reuters.com

Analysis: Draghi's fall leaves Monte dei Paschi's cash call in the lurch
By Valentina Za
and Giuseppe Fonte

The entrance of Monte dei Paschi di Siena bank's headquarter is seen in downtown Siena July 1, 2016. REUTERS/Stefano Rellandini

• Summary
• Companies

• MPS plans to raise 2.5 bln euros in the autumn
• Treasury determined to push ahead with cash call
• Political turmoil further complicates efforts

MILAN, July 22 (Reuters) - Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) (BMPS.MI)'s seventh capital raising in 14 years was always going to be a hard sell, now Italy's political crisis risks turning it into a mission impossible.
Even before Prime Minister Mario Draghi's national unity government collapsed this week, propelling Italy towards an election on Sept. 25, MPS CEO Luigi Lovaglio faced a tough job to convince investors the Tuscan bank is a more attractive buy than healthier, cheaper rivals in Italy.

State-controlled MPS, the world's oldest bank, plans to raise 2.5 billion euros ($2.6 billion) by mid-November to bolster capital and fund some 3,500 voluntary staff exits. read more
Italy's Treasury is determined to complete the capital raising despite the political chaos, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
And a lawmaker in the far-right Brothers of Italy party, which is likely to emerge as the largest single party in the next parliament, told Reuters they had no desire to take the blame for MPS's demise.

After burning through 15 billion euros of investors' money since 2008, MPS had to be rescued in 2017 in a 5.4 billion euro taxpayer bailout, leaving the government with a 64% stake.
After failing last year to sell MPS to UniCredit (CRDI.MI), Italy had to ask the European Union to extend a re-privatisation deadline.
A successful fundraising was considered a priority for Draghi's executive, two people close to discussions around the transactions said, with investment banks eager to play a role on a deal considered of national importance.
TURNAROUND EXPERT
MPS needs private investors to fund the 900 million euro portion of the cash call that is not covered by the Treasury to comply with EU rules.

To attract buyers the Treasury in February bet on the turnaround skills of Lovaglio, a veteran UniCredit executive who built his career in eastern Europe and returned to Italy in 2018 to steer small bank Creval towards a merger - making it a takeover target for France's Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA).
But MPS is seeking to raise a sum more than five times its market value of 450 million euros, capping the discount at which it can sell new shares.
Analysts calculated the shares could be priced at a discount of just over 60% to the bank's tangible book value - making them more expensive than UniCredit's.
They say Lovaglio's needs to find anchor investors for the capital raising, using his cachet as one of Italy's most experienced banking executives.
"Without anchor investors, launching the capital increase amid the uncertainty stoked by the crisis becomes extremely hazardous," Bocconi University finance professor Stefano Gatti said.
Despite saying MPS remains open to all prospective investors, Lovaglio has dampened speculation the bank's commercial partners, French insurer AXA (AXAF.PA) and asset manager Anima (ANIM.MI) could play a role in the capital increase.
People working on the deal say strengthening commercial partnerships to help deliver the cash call could diminish MPS' appeal as a merger partner - hampering efforts to market the new shares to buyers via the prospect of a tie-up.
The Treasury has ruled out seeking a waiver from the EU to pick up the tab in full were investors to shun the share issue, the person with knowledge of the matter said.
A lack of interest from investors would allow the four banks that have signed a pre-underwriting agreement, Bank of America, Citigroup, Credit Suisse and Mediobanca, to walk away from a contract that would see them mop up unsold shares, MPS has said.
TRICKY TIMING
Lovaglio told parliament earlier this month investor meetings on his new strategic plan for MPS had gone well but the outlook for Italian banks has since darkened. read more
"What could go wrong is going wrong and (higher interest) rates are of little relief," Mediobanca Securities analysts said in a note on Friday.
The political turmoil has widened the gap between Italian and German government bond yields, which was already increasing in response to the Ukraine conflict and rising interest rates.
Italy's reliance on Russian gas and its large manufacturing sector have increased the chances of a recession in the country, where small businesses make up the backbone of the economy.
MPS is the most exposed to sovereign risks among Italy's leading banks. Its sovereign bond holdings still amount to 2.4 times its best-quality capital, though that is down from 6.3 times five years ago, based on JPMorgan's analysis.
Shares in MPS have more than halved in value since Lovaglio's appointment, against a 35% drop in Italy's banking index since then (.FTITLMS3010).

Reuters Graphics
"A further drop in MPS' stock price in the coming months ... and the discount that new shares would need to offer may well push the hyper-dilution beyond what is reasonably acceptable," Gatti said, referring to the fact that amount MPS needs to raise is disproportionate to its market value.
($1 = 0.9813 euros)
Reporting by Valentina Za in Milan and Giuseppe Fonte in Rome. Editing by Jane Merriman

 

[Cat XL]

Analysis: Draghi's fall leaves Monte dei Paschi's cash call in the lurch

Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) 's seventh capital raising in 14 years was always going to be a hard sell, now Italy's political crisis risks turning it into a mission impossible.

www.reuters.com

Analysis: Draghi's fall leaves Monte dei Paschi's cash call in the lurch
By Valentina Za

Mia opinione personale notturna.

Con la caduta di Draghi le cose si complicano ma non penso che il nuovo Governo MBS si possa permettere la risoluzione di MPS. Direbbero che è colpa del PD (cosa vera) ma non si possono permettere di intestarsi un fallimento appena arrivati. Berlusconi fu molto critico in passato della risoluzione delle banche.

Una soluzione secondo me la troveranno.

 

[pietro17elettra]

Mia opinione personale notturna.

Con la caduta di Draghi le cose si complicano ma non penso che il nuovo Governo MBS si possa permettere la risoluzione di MPS. Direbbero che è colpa del PD (cosa vera) ma non si possono permettere di intestarsi un fallimento appena arrivati. Berlusconi fu molto critico in passato della risoluzione delle banche.

Una soluzione secondo me la troveranno.

Speriamo che l'opinione notturna si realizzi!
Comunque il piano di ricapitalizzazione mi sembra già decisamente impostato ed un suo fallimento sarebbe una bella botta per il sistema bancario in generale.
Anche a livello internazionale.

 

[Cat XL]

Speriamo che l'opinione notturna si realizzi!
Comunque il piano di ricapitalizzazione mi sembra già decisamente impostato ed un suo fallimento sarebbe una bella botta per il sistema bancario in generale.
Anche a livello internazionale.

Non basarti sui miei pronostici. Ho venduto i T2 di MPS post Draghicidio (cosi viene chiamato) in loss. Al momento MPS ha quasi zero possibilita' di fare un adc. A Settembre/Ottobre si vedra'. I T2 potrebbero scendere ancora ma purtroppo qui il recovery e' 0 o 100. Vie di mezzo non ce ne sono. Alla fine sara' la politica a decidere.

 

[Prudens]

Speriamo che l'opinione notturna si realizzi!
Comunque il piano di ricapitalizzazione mi sembra già decisamente impostato ed un suo fallimento sarebbe una bella botta per il sistema bancario in generale.
Anche a livello internazionale.

è vero, ma al punto in cui siamo o saremo... botta più, botta meno...

 

[pietro17elettra]

Non basarti sui miei pronostici. Ho venduto i T2 di MPS post Draghicidio (cosi viene chiamato) in loss. Al momento MPS ha quasi zero possibilita' di fare un adc. A Settembre/Ottobre si vedra'. I T2 potrebbero scendere ancora ma purtroppo qui il recovery e' 0 o 100. Vie di mezzo non ce ne sono. Alla fine sara' la politica a decidere.

Scusa Cat, ma perché hai venduto ora?
Tanto loss per loss potevi aspettare Settembre/Ottobre per vedere con maggiore chiarezza la situazione.
Scusa se ti faccio questa domanda, ma è per capire le tue motivazioni ed eventualmente decidere.
Anche alla mia veneranda età non finisco mai di imparare.