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Hallo guys,
my view is the following:

I would start gradually selling some fixed rate P and buy some linked to the 10yr swap rate. My portfolio at the moment is 80% fixed 20% 10yr swap rate. I would like to get to 60% - 40% by the end of the summer.
I see a lot of potential for the steepening of the curve in the next years. What we need to bear in mind is that for the pricing of 10yr swap rate linked bond it is very important as a general rule the 10yr swap rate implied in the curve in 5 yrs time i.e. the 10yrs swap rate from April 2015 to april 2025: even a tiny movement of this rate can have huge effects on the pricing. I would bet for a gradual steepening of the curve.




As I wrote the last time we talked about this, I am not expecting rate hikes in 2010 for the eurozone. Since then (January) the uptick in the economy has been larger than expected but more so in the US. There still are no inflationary pressures. One has to keep an eye on commodity prices for that matter.

In the last month another reason has popped up for not raising rates: Greece. The divergence between the PIIGS and Germany has widened, which will make interest rate policy quite difficult when inflation finally steps in again. But for now it seems more than clear that e.g. greece shouldn't and cannot bear quick rate hikes.

Therefore I still see realative value in fixed coupons relative to floating coupons. Even more so as market has begun to price in rate hikes and still has to realize that those might not come in the foreseeable future. The japanese scenario is still possible... I would definitely sell steepeners and look for 1/3 FLR and 2/3 fixed for the time being.

Greetings from Berlin!
 
che pal.le
è un'ora e mezza che IW mi deve richiamare ...
tra un po' i MM non ci sono più !!! :down:

al mio terzo sollecito mi hanno passato Torelli.
Ho fatto un po' di pulizia nel mio ptf.
Fuori con buoni gains:
BNP 5.869%
ING 8%
CL CAPITAL 7.047%
provato a prendere Bancaja ma nisba.
Nel w-e proverò a studiarmi SNS visto che il titolo non mi ancora tanto chiaro, poi vedrò.
 
grecia: Fitch taglia rating a bbb-, outlook negativo

notavo:
appena l'Europa o il governo greco fanno una dichiarazione positiva in favore della Grecia, spunta o Fitch o altra agenzia con qualcosa di negativo ...

Cmq prezzi IW:
SNS155 66,25 / 67,25
Bancaja 7778 58/62
1 solo MM presente !!!
Il week-end è iniziato ... :lol::lol:
 
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