cercando sui siti tedeschi ho trovato, questo report. ecco spiegato l'improvviso aumento dei prezzi.
Here is an interesting development of a large investment bank from noon today to ÖVAG Tier1 floaters.
This non-cumulative Preferred security is issued by Osterreichische Volksbanken
This non-cumulative preferred security is issued by Osterreichische Volksbank
(VBAG Group) via the standard SPV/support agreement format.
(VBAG Group) format via the standard SPV / support agreement.
It's a EUR 250mm
It's a EUR 250mm
issue MUST-PAY noncumulative tier 1, Caa2 rated.
MUST PAY issue noncumulative tier 1, Caa2 rated.
The coupon is linked to the
The coupon is linked to the
10yr swap rate plus 10bps, capped at 9%.
10yr swap rate plus 10bps, capped at 9%.
Triggers for coupon deferral are sufficient distributable funds and regulatory
Triggers for coupon deferral are sufficient distributable funds and regulatory
capital ratio, ie non-discretionary coupon.
capital ratio, ie non-discretionary coupon.
There is no writedown language.
There is no write-down language.
The semi-annual coupon has not paid since March 2010.
The semi-annual coupon has not paid since April 2010.
2010 FY results are due to be released in April - the 1st 3 quarters of 2010
FY 2010 results are due to be released in April - the 1st 3 Quarters of 2010
showed a positive trend with lower provisions and €73mm PBT up to Sep2010 on a
showed a positive trend with lower provisions and € PBT up to 73mm on a Sep2010
consolidated basis.
consolidated basis.
On assets of €48bn VBAG Group reported a tier 1 ratio of
On assets of € 48bn VBAG Group reported a tier 1 ratio of
9.7%.
9.7%.
The combination with Investkredit Bank AG is expected to complete by mid-
The combination with Invest Bank AG is expected to complete by mid-
2011.
2011th
Mgmt target to start repaying the 1bn participation capital held by the
Mgmt target to start Repaying the participation 1bn capital held by the
Republic of Austria from 2011 and aim to fully resume distributions on profit-
Republic of Austria from 2011 and aim to fully resume on profit distributions
related instruments in 2012 based on 2011 fiscal year.
related instruments in 2012 based on 2011 fiscal year.
Coupons based on 2010
Coupons based on 2010
results are unlikely because at non-consolidated VBAG level a positive annual
results are unlikely because at non-consolidated level VBAG a positive annual
profit was not expected.
profit was not expected.
We
We
expect FY results to trigger a substantial rally as coupons start getting
expect FY results to trigger a substantial rally as coupons start getting
priced back in. Similar coupon-paying prefs trade around 55-75 range, and of
Similar priced back in. coupon-paying prefs trade around 55-75 range, and of
course the recent rise in 10yr rates means coupons will start fixing
course the recent rise in rates means 10yr coupons will start fixing
increasingly higher as well.
Increasingly higher as well.
Once retail starts buying again they will quickly
Once again they will retail buying starts quickly
ramp up.
ramp up
Cheap on fundamental basis, what about relative value?
Cheap on a fundamental basis, what about relative value?
The only other tier 1 that actively trades is the AUSTVB 10% 49-18s: non-
The only other animal that one is the AUSTVB Actively trades 10% 49-18s: non-
cumulative participation capital Caa2 rated, where the Board have full
cumulative capital participation Caa2 rated, where the Board have full
discretion over the coupon and the notes have principal writedown related to
discretion over the coupon and the notes have principal write-down related to
profits.
profits.
Whilst the 10% coupon is attractive (when its paying), you have
Whilst the 10% coupon is attractive (when its paying), you have
significantly weaker protection.
Significantly weaker protection.
Currently wrapped around 61.00 cash price.
Currently wrapped around 61.00 cash price.
Hard to be exact, but arguably the CMS prefs should not be more than ~12-15 pts
Hard to be exact, but arguably the CMS prefs should not be more than ~ 12-15 pts
below this after adjusting for coupon and illiquidity ie they look 10-12
below this after adjusting for illiquidity ie coupon and they look 10-12
points cheap on rel value (especially as lower price makes tender more
cheap points on relative value (especially as lower price makes tender more
attractive for issuer).
attractive for issuer).
Finally, another Austrian bank Kommunalkredit tendered last Autumn for its tier
Finally, another Austrian bank Kommunalkredit tendered last Autumn for its animal
1, and we saw Eurohypo/CMZB tendering for tier 1 last month, so at these levels
1, and we saw € Hypo / CMZB tendering for tier 1 last month, so at these levels
there is a reasonable chance of a tender from Oevag at a good premium.
there is a reasonable chance of a tender from DAV at a good premium.
A couple of smart-money accounts have been involved, we think we are getting to
A couple of smart-money accounts have been involved, we think we are getting to
crunch-time in the next 2 months as the FY results provide more clarity on
crunch-time in the next two months as the FY results Provide more clarity on
Bondboard@BaaderMarkets ***vorher wissen - wie man handelt***
