Topgun1976
Guest
Sempre a prendersela con IWBANK !!! D)
Mah boh Chissà Cmq prima o Poi arriverà
Sempre a prendersela con IWBANK !!! D)
cercando sui siti tedeschi ho trovato, questo report. ecco spiegato l'improvviso aumento dei prezzi.
Here is an interesting development of a large investment bank from noon today to ÖVAG Tier1 floaters.
This non-cumulative Preferred security is issued by Osterreichische VolksbankenThis non-cumulative preferred security is issued by Osterreichische Volksbank
(VBAG Group) via the standard SPV/support agreement format.(VBAG Group) format via the standard SPV / support agreement.It's a EUR 250mmIt's a EUR 250mm
issue MUST-PAY noncumulative tier 1, Caa2 rated.MUST PAY issue noncumulative tier 1, Caa2 rated.The coupon is linked to theThe coupon is linked to the
10yr swap rate plus 10bps, capped at 9%.10yr swap rate plus 10bps, capped at 9%.
Triggers for coupon deferral are sufficient distributable funds and regulatoryTriggers for coupon deferral are sufficient distributable funds and regulatory
capital ratio, ie non-discretionary coupon.capital ratio, ie non-discretionary coupon.There is no writedown language.There is no write-down language.
The semi-annual coupon has not paid since March 2010.The semi-annual coupon has not paid since April 2010.
2010 FY results are due to be released in April - the 1st 3 quarters of 2010FY 2010 results are due to be released in April - the 1st 3 Quarters of 2010
showed a positive trend with lower provisions and €73mm PBT up to Sep2010 on ashowed a positive trend with lower provisions and € PBT up to 73mm on a Sep2010
consolidated basis.consolidated basis.On assets of €48bn VBAG Group reported a tier 1 ratio ofOn assets of € 48bn VBAG Group reported a tier 1 ratio of
9.7%.9.7%.The combination with Investkredit Bank AG is expected to complete by mid-The combination with Invest Bank AG is expected to complete by mid-
2011.2011thMgmt target to start repaying the 1bn participation capital held by theMgmt target to start Repaying the participation 1bn capital held by the
Republic of Austria from 2011 and aim to fully resume distributions on profit-Republic of Austria from 2011 and aim to fully resume on profit distributions
related instruments in 2012 based on 2011 fiscal year.related instruments in 2012 based on 2011 fiscal year.Coupons based on 2010Coupons based on 2010
results are unlikely because at non-consolidated VBAG level a positive annualresults are unlikely because at non-consolidated level VBAG a positive annual
profit was not expected.profit was not expected.
WeWe
expect FY results to trigger a substantial rally as coupons start gettingexpect FY results to trigger a substantial rally as coupons start getting
priced back in. Similar coupon-paying prefs trade around 55-75 range, and ofSimilar priced back in. coupon-paying prefs trade around 55-75 range, and of
course the recent rise in 10yr rates means coupons will start fixingcourse the recent rise in rates means 10yr coupons will start fixing
increasingly higher as well.Increasingly higher as well.Once retail starts buying again they will quicklyOnce again they will retail buying starts quickly
ramp up.ramp up
Cheap on fundamental basis, what about relative value?Cheap on a fundamental basis, what about relative value?
The only other tier 1 that actively trades is the AUSTVB 10% 49-18s: non-The only other animal that one is the AUSTVB Actively trades 10% 49-18s: non-
cumulative participation capital Caa2 rated, where the Board have fullcumulative capital participation Caa2 rated, where the Board have full
discretion over the coupon and the notes have principal writedown related todiscretion over the coupon and the notes have principal write-down related to
profits.profits.Whilst the 10% coupon is attractive (when its paying), you haveWhilst the 10% coupon is attractive (when its paying), you have
significantly weaker protection.Significantly weaker protection.Currently wrapped around 61.00 cash price.Currently wrapped around 61.00 cash price.
Hard to be exact, but arguably the CMS prefs should not be more than ~12-15 ptsHard to be exact, but arguably the CMS prefs should not be more than ~ 12-15 pts
below this after adjusting for coupon and illiquidity ie they look 10-12below this after adjusting for illiquidity ie coupon and they look 10-12
points cheap on rel value (especially as lower price makes tender morecheap points on relative value (especially as lower price makes tender more
attractive for issuer).attractive for issuer).
Finally, another Austrian bank Kommunalkredit tendered last Autumn for its tierFinally, another Austrian bank Kommunalkredit tendered last Autumn for its animal
1, and we saw Eurohypo/CMZB tendering for tier 1 last month, so at these levels1, and we saw € Hypo / CMZB tendering for tier 1 last month, so at these levels
there is a reasonable chance of a tender from Oevag at a good premium.there is a reasonable chance of a tender from DAV at a good premium.
A couple of smart-money accounts have been involved, we think we are getting toA couple of smart-money accounts have been involved, we think we are getting to
crunch-time in the next 2 months as the FY results provide more clarity oncrunch-time in the next two months as the FY results Provide more clarity on
Bondboard@BaaderMarkets ***vorher wissen - wie man handelt***
Uscita ricerca di una investment bank che ha valutato che la differenza tra Oevag tasso fisso e oevag cms non puó essere piú alta di 12 punti percentuali al momento. Quindi se consideriamo la tasso fisso a 61% dobbiamo parlare della tasso variabile ad un prezzo di 49% che potrebbe in effetti essere plausibilissimo nel caso di inizio conteggio rateo.
Se poi ci spingiamo a valutare che la tasso fisso potrebbe essere tutt'ora sottovalutata ed un prezzo plausibile potrebbe essere 70 a questo punto la Oevag cms potrebbe nel giro di qualche mese arrivare a quotare 58% praticamente un poco meno della Baca odierna e quindi plausibile anche questo...
cercando sui siti tedeschi ho trovato, questo report. ecco spiegato l'improvviso aumento dei prezzi.
Here is an interesting development of a large investment bank from noon today to ÖVAG Tier1 floaters.
This non-cumulative Preferred security is issued by Osterreichische VolksbankenThis non-cumulative preferred security is issued by Osterreichische Volksbank
(VBAG Group) via the standard SPV/support agreement format.(VBAG Group) format via the standard SPV / support agreement.It's a EUR 250mmIt's a EUR 250mm
issue MUST-PAY noncumulative tier 1, Caa2 rated.MUST PAY issue noncumulative tier 1, Caa2 rated.The coupon is linked to theThe coupon is linked to the
10yr swap rate plus 10bps, capped at 9%.10yr swap rate plus 10bps, capped at 9%.
Triggers for coupon deferral are sufficient distributable funds and regulatoryTriggers for coupon deferral are sufficient distributable funds and regulatory
capital ratio, ie non-discretionary coupon.capital ratio, ie non-discretionary coupon.There is no writedown language.There is no write-down language.
The semi-annual coupon has not paid since March 2010.The semi-annual coupon has not paid since April 2010.
2010 FY results are due to be released in April - the 1st 3 quarters of 2010FY 2010 results are due to be released in April - the 1st 3 Quarters of 2010
showed a positive trend with lower provisions and €73mm PBT up to Sep2010 on ashowed a positive trend with lower provisions and € PBT up to 73mm on a Sep2010
consolidated basis.consolidated basis.On assets of €48bn VBAG Group reported a tier 1 ratio ofOn assets of € 48bn VBAG Group reported a tier 1 ratio of
9.7%.9.7%.The combination with Investkredit Bank AG is expected to complete by mid-The combination with Invest Bank AG is expected to complete by mid-
2011.2011thMgmt target to start repaying the 1bn participation capital held by theMgmt target to start Repaying the participation 1bn capital held by the
Republic of Austria from 2011 and aim to fully resume distributions on profit-Republic of Austria from 2011 and aim to fully resume on profit distributions
related instruments in 2012 based on 2011 fiscal year.related instruments in 2012 based on 2011 fiscal year.Coupons based on 2010Coupons based on 2010
results are unlikely because at non-consolidated VBAG level a positive annualresults are unlikely because at non-consolidated level VBAG a positive annual
profit was not expected.profit was not expected.
WeWe
expect FY results to trigger a substantial rally as coupons start gettingexpect FY results to trigger a substantial rally as coupons start getting
priced back in. Similar coupon-paying prefs trade around 55-75 range, and ofSimilar priced back in. coupon-paying prefs trade around 55-75 range, and of
course the recent rise in 10yr rates means coupons will start fixingcourse the recent rise in rates means 10yr coupons will start fixing
increasingly higher as well.Increasingly higher as well.Once retail starts buying again they will quicklyOnce again they will retail buying starts quickly
ramp up.ramp up
Cheap on fundamental basis, what about relative value?Cheap on a fundamental basis, what about relative value?
The only other tier 1 that actively trades is the AUSTVB 10% 49-18s: non-The only other animal that one is the AUSTVB Actively trades 10% 49-18s: non-
cumulative participation capital Caa2 rated, where the Board have fullcumulative capital participation Caa2 rated, where the Board have full
discretion over the coupon and the notes have principal writedown related todiscretion over the coupon and the notes have principal write-down related to
profits.profits.Whilst the 10% coupon is attractive (when its paying), you haveWhilst the 10% coupon is attractive (when its paying), you have
significantly weaker protection.Significantly weaker protection.Currently wrapped around 61.00 cash price.Currently wrapped around 61.00 cash price.
Hard to be exact, but arguably the CMS prefs should not be more than ~12-15 ptsHard to be exact, but arguably the CMS prefs should not be more than ~ 12-15 pts
below this after adjusting for coupon and illiquidity ie they look 10-12below this after adjusting for illiquidity ie coupon and they look 10-12
points cheap on rel value (especially as lower price makes tender morecheap points on relative value (especially as lower price makes tender more
attractive for issuer).attractive for issuer).
Finally, another Austrian bank Kommunalkredit tendered last Autumn for its tierFinally, another Austrian bank Kommunalkredit tendered last Autumn for its animal
1, and we saw Eurohypo/CMZB tendering for tier 1 last month, so at these levels1, and we saw € Hypo / CMZB tendering for tier 1 last month, so at these levels
there is a reasonable chance of a tender from Oevag at a good premium.there is a reasonable chance of a tender from DAV at a good premium.
A couple of smart-money accounts have been involved, we think we are getting toA couple of smart-money accounts have been involved, we think we are getting to
crunch-time in the next 2 months as the FY results provide more clarity oncrunch-time in the next two months as the FY results Provide more clarity on
Bondboard@BaaderMarkets ***vorher wissen - wie man handelt***
RUSSIA ma dove sei ???
Nei momenti di buriana sei presente ed ora che ha cominciato ad uscire un pallido sole non ci sei...
fortissimo denaro su oevag irs
sulla borsa di stoccarda ha scambiato oltre 2.000.000 di euro
peccato essermi accorto in ritardo del tutto. se no incrementavo in primo pomeriggio
oltre a oevag (e speriamo continui!), anche lanschot ha messo il turbo: 20% in un mese
LANSCHOT 3,453%PL - NL0000116374, Chart
il cavallo peggiore dei miei, oltre a westlb che però era gia nata come scommessa, è sto ramarro di bancaja, mannaggia!
Venghino gente venghino.
Iscrizioni aperte.
Members pls reply with quantity and price.