Risultati Raiffeisen
Oggi sono stati pubblicati (se la sono presa comoda) i risultati 2010 di Raiffeisen. Li riporto qui sotto. A seguire il commento sugli stessi da parte di un analista Unicredit Research.
Teoricamente i risultati dovrebbero fare bene ai perpetuals RZB. Chissà che il TV non replichi la corsa, a mio avviso molto sorprendente, del suo equivalente di Erste.
Raiffeisen Bank International said on Friday that in 2010 consolidated profit rised 141.5 per cent year-on-year to 1,087 mn euros and exceeded the expectations of 877 mn euros (Bloomberg consensus).
Net interest income increases grew by 9.0 per cent to 3,578 mn, net provisioning for impairment losses declined by 46.5 per cent to 1,194 mn. The net fee and commission income rised 4.9 per cent to 1,491 mn. Profit before tax increased by 62.9 per cent to 1,287 mn euros. The return on equity before tax improved by 4.2 percentage points year-on-year to 13.7 per cent (pro forma 2009: 9.5 per cent), the
core tier 1 ratio, total increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 8.9 per cent, tier 1 ratio, total increased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.7 per cent.
Earnings per share grew by 3.27 to 4.56 euros.
"The year 2010 was a decisive one, both for our company and for its home market Central and Eastern Europe. Despite the considerable additional costs brought about by the merger, Raiffeisen Bank International managed to post a very satisfying full-year profit of more than one billion euros for its first financial year. Moreover, with our merger, we have ensured that we are well-positioned to meet future challenges and market requirements. Central and Eastern Europe has, on the whole, achieved the turnaround and all of the region's countries are seen back on the path of growth in 2011. This should result in a clear rise in the demand for financial products – something for which we are also well-prepared," said Herbert Stepic, CEO of Raiffeisen Bank International.
The Management Board will propose a dividend of 1.05 euros per share at this Annual General Meeting. If this proposal is approved, the total dividend will be 204.3 mn euros.
"The rise in our net interest income and net fee and commission income mirrors the improving macroeconomic environment in our home market. Southeastern Europe, the region with the most moderate economic performance, was the region that posted the highest contribution to our Group's profits. Central Europe posted the second-highest profit before tax, edging out Russia, which nevertheless managed to post the highest year-on-year increase, namely 76 per cent. Following the loss it had posted a year earlier, the region CIS Other was clearly back in profitable territory in 2010," RBI Chief Financial Officer Martin Grüll summarized developments in the group's regional segments.
Due to the improvement in overall economic conditions and the measures taken to stabilize the loan portfolio, provisioning for impairment losses in 2010 fell by 47 per cent or 1,038 mn to 1,194 mn euros. "The revitalised economic growth in the region is also reflected in the sharp decline in net provisioning for impairment losses, whose 2010 volume was nearly one-half lower than that of 2009," Johann Strobl, Chief Risk Officer of RBI, commented on the developments. "Our NPL ratio – the proportion of non-performing loans in our loan portfolio – stood at 9.0 per cent at the end of the reporting period. It's worth noting that the NPL growth rate slowed down considerably since the start of the second half of 2010. During the fourth quarter, we could even observe a decline in the existing stock of non-performing loans in Russia, the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania," Strobl added.
The net provisioning ratio based on average credit risk-weighted assets also fell significantly by 123 basis points to 1.66 per cent. The NPL ratio, which is the non-performing loan ratio in the loan portfolio, rose by 1.56 percentage points to 9.0 per cent. This followed an increase of 4.5 percentage points in the previous year. The strongest growth in 2010 was in business with large corporates and private individuals.
Qui il commento di Unicredit Research:
Research from Thomas Neuhold, UniCredit Research
RBI reported operating results in-line with our estimates and consensus. Due to an unexpected one-off positive deferred income tax in 4Q10, net profit beat our estimates by 13%. The company restarted to provide (although rather vague) guidance for 2011: RBI expects a notable increase in customer loans, particularly in CEE, and expects a pre-tax ROE of 15%-20%. RBI announced a DPS of EUR 1.05 for FY10, well above even our bullish estimate of EUR 0.76. Major changes to consensus EPS seem unlikely, in our view.
Marginally better than expected revenue development. Total revenues reached EUR 5,397mn in 2010, 0.6% above our estimates. The key driver was higher than expected fee and trading income. Net interest income fell slightly short of our expectations. The NIM reached 2.54% in 4Q versus 2.55% in 3Q and 2.51%.
Mixed cost development. SG&A expenses were 3% above our estimates due to FX movements, pre-launch expenses for its direct banking activities and bonus payments in 4Q. Loan loss provisions declined strongly and were slightly better than anticipated, reflecting the ongoing macroeconomic improvement in most markets. As a result, pre-tax profit was well in-line with our estimates.
One-off deferred tax income as key reason for beat. The tax rate amounted to only 8.5% in 2010 due to activated tax loss carry forwards (EUR 120mn) and deferred tax income in Ukraine due to a tax law change (EUR 26mn).
Update on capitalization. Core tier-1 ratio increased 0.4% to 8.9% in 2010. Excluding the participation capital, the expected core tier-1 ratio was 6.2%. During the analyst presentation in Vienna, the CEO, Mr. Stepic, stated that the company may consider a capital increase "depending on how fast and vivid the market redevelops".
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