Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 1 (11 lettori)

[thoor]

...un titolo fuori dal coro?

BEI in lire turche (ce ne sono diverse molto interessanti)

certo una buona alternativa ....ma il rischio cambio ...c'e'....come gestirlo ??

 

[tomcat]

Ma secondo voi, con queste previsioni, considerando gli spread di alcune, quale banca continuerà a pagare fior fiori di cedole?

secondo me, tassi del genere sono incompatibili con qualsiasi prospettiva, non dico di ripresa, ma di semplice sopravvivenza del sistema
almeno per i paesi più deboli

 

[nik.sala]

Prezzi

Bawag 897 70,00/73,00
Erste 152 70,50/71,00

 

[capt.harlock]

Bawag 897 70,00/73,00
Erste 152 70,50/71,00

lettera operativa?

intanto oevag irs riprende la sua corsa
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/rd/de/anleihen/factsheet?sSymbol=56VA.STU&lang=de

 

[discipline]

lettera operativa?

intanto oevag irs riprende la sua corsa
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/rd/de/anleihen/factsheet?sSymbol=56VA.STU&lang=de

E come in occasione del precedente deciso movimento al rialzo, anche questa volta esce un parere positivo (soprattutto per la Irs) di JPM. Continuo a tenere la 10%, ma in effetti lo switch poteva starci tutto, principalmente per la discrezionalità del coupon, criterio che invece manca nella irs.

***THIS IS A TRADING DESK VIEW, NOT RESEARCH PRODUCT***

{XS0201306288 corp DES<GO>} AUSTVB 0 09/29/49 46.75/47.75 2mmx2mm

Overview:-This Preferred security is issued by Osterreichische Volksbanken
(VBAG Group) via the standard SPV/support agreement format for Prefs. It's a €250mm issue non-cumulative tier 1, Caa2 rated, "Supplementary capital". The coupon is linked to the 10yr swap rate plus 10bps, capped at 9%.
Triggers for coupon deferral are insufficient distributable funds and regulatory capital ratio, ie non-discretionary coupon. There is no writedown language, and is callable every 6 months from September 2011.
The semi-annual coupon has not paid since March 2010. It has dividend parity with both the AUSTVB 10% 49-18 participation capital traded by Pierre and with the €1bn of participation capital owned by the Republic of Austria.

In February we sent a desk view that at 37.00 these looked way too cheap. Since then they have rallied ~10 points, and we think they still offer great value.

News:-The 2010 FY report released last week had some interesting updates. Starting with the actual results, Oevag reported €55mm Net Income on €46bn of assets, with positive PBT in all four quarters of 2010. The Tier 1 Capital ratio is 10.3% at yr-end. All-in-all it appears Oevag has turned the corner to return to sustained profitability.

The previously announced merger of Investkredit with Oevag is set to complete in July 2011. Note that the Preferred Securities issued by Investkredit are already paying coupons in 2011 (based on 2010 results). As a result of the merger we expect these securities will become dividend parity with the CMS pref and the AUSTVB 10% Perp, and the govt-owned participation capital injected in 2009. The question remains whether coupons on the Investkredit prefs in 2011 should "push" the CMS and 10% dividends in 2011. Presumably Oevag management anticipate that not to be the case, as they continue to guide that they expect dividends on participation capital (both govt-owned and private) to resume only in 2012. Something for the lawyers to chew on.

Additionally Oevag announced it intends to buy back this year €300mm of the €1bn govt participation capital. At first glance from the press release this would appear a surefire dividend push of the CMS and 10% coupons, given the Dividend Parity. However Oevag have since clarified that the English translation of the press release is rather loose in its use of the term
"redeem", and in fact this 300mm participation capital will be "bought" from the Austrian government by core shareholders, therefore not pushing dividends.

Despite this, with the now very strong likelihood of cpns resuming in March 2012 based on 2011 fiscal year (mgmt guidance), and the rising rates environment (fixing CMS coupons higher), the CMS pref looks very cheap on a fundamental basis. Pretty much all similar coupon-paying tier 1 CMS prefs are bid comfortably above 60.00, and some names trade up to 80.00 cash price. Once the retail bid returns these will rapidly trade up 8-10 points.

Relative value:-The other actively traded AUSTVB tier 1 is the AUSTVB 10% 49-18s (referred to above): non-cum participation capital Caa2 rated, Board has full discretion over the cpn and the notes have Principal Writedown language related to profits (the CMS has neither of these attributes).
Whilst the 10% coupon is attractive, the bondholder has significantly weaker protection than on the CMS (conceivably the CMS can pay cpns without pushing the 10%, but not vice-versa). These notes are currently 75/77. Arguably the CMS should not be more than ~18pts lower than the 10%s (after adjusting for coupon differential, liquidity and cpn/ppl protection). ie the CMS looks at least 10pts cheap on relative value.

Tender?
Its also worth pointing out that under Basel 3 the CMS is unlikely to be eligible as tier 1 capital, and the low cash price makes this security attractive from a liability management perspective. Note we saw another Austrian Bank KA Finanz AG (Kommunalkredit bad-bank) tender last Autumn for its tier 1, and Eurohypo/CMZB tendering for tier 1 earlier this year, both at around 5-7pt premium to the prevailing mkt px.
Indeed, given Oevag's profitability and the CMS price action, the window for a tender is arguably fairly near-term (H111 report due 26th August).

 

[giapo27]

Originalmente inviato da giapo27
...un titolo fuori dal coro?

BEI in lire turche (ce ne sono diverse molto interessanti)


altroche'fuori dal coro..quelle sono fuori dalla chiesa

Potremmo considerarle anche fuori del MINARETO se vuoi, resta il fatto che leggo interesse da più parti per l'attuale rapporto di cambio; le cedole girano intorno al 9% perchè non operarci?
sono gradite riflessioni

 

[bosmeld]

Originalmente inviato da giapo27
...un titolo fuori dal coro?

BEI in lire turche (ce ne sono diverse molto interessanti)


altroche'fuori dal coro..quelle sono fuori dalla chiesa

Potremmo considerarle anche fuori del MINARETO se vuoi, resta il fatto che leggo interesse da più parti per l'attuale rapporto di cambio; le cedole girano intorno al 9% perchè non operarci?
sono gradite riflessioni

io ne ho un cippino preso con la lira tuca a 2,25

oggi sta perdendo parecchio terreno.


cmq un cippino per diversificare non mi sembra una cattiva idea

 

[stefmas]

Originalmente inviato da giapo27
...un titolo fuori dal coro?

BEI in lire turche (ce ne sono diverse molto interessanti)


altroche'fuori dal coro..quelle sono fuori dalla chiesa

Potremmo considerarle anche fuori del MINARETO se vuoi, resta il fatto che leggo interesse da più parti per l'attuale rapporto di cambio; le cedole girano intorno al 9% perchè non operarci?
sono gradite riflessioni

Ci sono dentro anch'io, con poco capitale.. Secondo me buone prospettive (in passato ci ho fatto faville, con una cedola al 13 e rotti %.. )

 

[mavalà]

Ancora su WESTLB

EU Not Satisfied With Germany’s WestLB Proposal, Boersen Says

By Niklas Magnusson - May 3, 2011 9:02 AM

The European Union wants more clarity on Germany’s proposal for the future of WestLB AG, Boersen- Zeitung reported, citing unidentified people with knowledge of negotiations between the German government and the EU.
The European Commission is not satisfied with the proposal that Germany has sent, the newspaper said today.

 

[claudioborghi]

Il fenomeno irlandese...

News Headlines

Non tocchiamo il corporate tax rate perchè potrebbe significare un danno alla fiducia nel nostro paese, però inchiappettiamo gli obbligazionisti, tanto chissenefrega dei prospetti e dei contratti
Mica danneggiano la fiducia...