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Eccola in pillole la situazione di Solvay... Fitch fa pure un ritratto della potenziale preda in termini di prezzo che verrà pagato per l'acquisizione e stima sia un 7x - 9x EBITDA per attività con un EBITDA margin superiore di 150 - 250 pb rispetto a quello delle correnti attività della chimica di Solvay, appunto integrando in tal modo il requisito di attività "ad alto margine"

Per Fitch appare certo che si tratterà di una singola "grande acquisizione"

Leverage molto basso ed in diminuzione nel 2009, posizione di liquidità molto forte, a prescindere dai proventi della cessione della farmaceutica ad Abbot Lab.

Fitch Affirms Solvay at 'A-'; Negative Outlook


22 Feb 2010 10:03 AM (EST)

Fitch Ratings-Frankfurt/London-22 February 2010: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Belgium-based Solvay S.A.'s (Solvay) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured ratings at 'A-', whilst affirming its Short-term rating at 'F2' and its subordinated hybrid bond at 'BBB'. Fitch has simultaneously removed all the ratings from Rating Watch Negative (RWN) and assigned a Negative Outlook to the Long-term IDR.

The rating action follows the completion of the sale of Solvay's pharmaceutical operations to Abbott Laboratories ('A+'/'F1'/Stable) and the publication of the group's FY09 preliminary results. While uncertainties remain about the nature of the activities in which the EUR4.5bn proceeds from the sale of Solvay's pharma division will be reinvested, Fitch believes that the company will continue to adhere to a conservative financial policy.

Based on the limited guidance provided by management, Fitch has assessed various acquisition scenarios assuming EBITDA-margin levels 150bp to 250bp higher than in its existing chemicals and plastics activities through the cycle (high valued-added activities) for the potential deal target and EBITDA multiples ranging between 7x and 9x.

The ratings factor in Fitch's view that Solvay's capital structure and financial standing remain commensurate with its current rating under these scenarios.

The Negative Outlook reflects the agency's concerns on the demand conditions in some of Solvay's core businesses. While the group's performance improved sequentially in FY09 and exceeded Fitch's forecasts, this was partly attributable to a particularly strong performance of the now divested pharma operations. Further pricing and margin pressure is expected in 2010 in the PVC segment and in the late-cycle soda ash market which could limit or delay Solvay's recovery.

To a lesser extent, the Negative Outlook also reflects the execution risk associated with a potential large-scale transaction and the uncertainties related to the group's future business mix.

Fitch had downgraded Solvay to 'A-' from 'A' on 28 September 2009 following the announcement of the sale of its pharmaceuticals operations for an enterprise value of EUR5.2bn, including a EUR4.5bn cash payment at closing, to Abbott. The downgrade mainly reflected the agency's view that the transaction exposed Solvay to increased business risk from the remaining cyclical chemicals and plastics activities.

Solvay's ratings continue to reflect its strong market positions, good sales diversification in terms of products, clients, regions and end-markets.

Solvay has taken measures to preserve cash during a challenging economic environment, including cost cutting and a substantial reduction in capital expenditures, which resulted in a decrease in net debt by EUR264m in FY09.

The company's lease-adjusted net debt, including equity credit/last 12 months (LTM) EBITDAR ratio, is estimated at 0.9x at FY09, compared with 1.0x at FYE08. In February 2010, Solvay received cash proceeds of EUR4.5bn for the sale of its pharma business, which brings the group into a net cash position, albeit temporarily as the proceeds are earmarked for redeployment into other activities.

Solvay's liquidity position remains strong. At FYE09, Solvay reported about EUR1.5bn in cash on its balance sheet and has access to a EUR1bn Belgian treasury bill programme and a USD500m US CP programme (both unused at FYE09). The two programmes are covered by a EUR850m bank facility, due October 2011, a EUR400m bank credit line maturing in January 2013, and further bilateral back-up credit lines (EUR550m), all unused at FYE09. Management maintained a strong focus on improving its working capital management, as well as cash preservation in a difficult operating environment. Solvay does not face significant debt maturities before 2014.
 
Asian banks comfortable with proposed Basel III
By Ted P. Torres (The Philippine Star) Updated February 16, 2010 12:00 AM

MANILA, Philippines - While most Asian banks have still to fulfill regulations under the Basel II framework set by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), consultative papers on new regulations have been circulated by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision since late 2009, seeking the thoughts of banks worldwide.
Bankers, including those domiciled in Asia, must submit their proposals or reactions by the first semester of 2010.
“These proposals represent a major and ambitious overhaul of the existing regulatory regime, and are made in response to the recent global financial crisis,” Citibank NA (Citi) said in its February report of Asia Macro View.
The final standards will be released end 2010, with implementation by end 2012.
Citi believes that Basel III will require banks to hold more equity capital, and maintain more liquidity.
Other broad implications are: earnings will be smoother/less cyclical due to the shift to expected loss (EL) provisioning; banks will also be subject to greater regulatory intervention, including potential constraints on divided payment; and, net result will be lower and less cyclical return on equity (ROE).
But Citi is not too concerned about the ability of the Asian banks in general to deal with a new environment.
“In Asia (ex-Japan), capital levels are higher to start with, liquidity is generally strong given low loan/deposit ratios and reliance on deposit funding (as opposed to wholesale funding), and business mix is predominantly in basic banking without much complex derivative, structured, off-balance sheet activities,” the report said.
The average equity Tier 1 ratio of Asian banks under Basel 3 is estimated at nine percent compared to 7.1 percent for Australia, 5.7 percent for Europe and 3.4 percent for Japan.
The reported average Asia Tier 1 under Basel 2 stood at 10.7 percent, while the average equity Tier 1 under Basel 2 is 10.
Philippine banks are estimated to be within the Asian average, as of June 2009.
“We believe this level for Asia should be sufficient to clear future regulatory minimum levels, based on four-percent minimum and two- to three-percent capital buffer,” the report indicated.
Banks in the countries of Indonesia, Thailand and Pakistan are well capitalized and have strong liquidity.
“Markets that we think are more problematic are Taiwan and Malaysia,” Citi said.
Both markets have relatively low equity Tier 1 ratios and relatively high leverage ratios. Malaysia in addition has relied heavily on hybrid capital to bolster Tier 1 capital and there seems to be significant amounts of goodwill that is hidden from view at the financial holding company (FHC) level.
Taiwan in addition has a fairly poor history of credit costs, which could hurt the sector under EL provisioning. This is further compounded by the sector’s low profitability, which amplifies the earnings sensitivity to provisions.
Korea is a borderline case, dragged down by low capital ratios and high loan/deposit ratios (potentially more vulnerable to new liquidity standards).
The impact on ROE from raising equity Tier 1 is likely to be limited. Since Asian banks are generally well capitalized, we do not anticipate significant capital raising pressure, except in a few specific cases.
However, Citi said that banks that may be under ROE pressure are Malaysia’s Public Bank, and Chinatrust, Chang Hwa Bank and First, all Taiwan banks.
Banks to watch are Hana, OCBC, CIMB, Maybank, KBFG, Bank of Baroda, and Sinopac.
Likewise, strictly applying the average 10-year credit cost as the future level of EL provisions, the report said that ROEs that could be most impacted are Taiwan (7.2 percentage points), Malaysia (negative 4.7 percentage points) and Korea (negative four percentage points). The least impacted markets are Singapore, Pakistan and China.
The proposed Basel III framework introduces two new measures for liquidity risk — the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and the net stable funding ratio (NCR).
The LCR ensures that there are sufficient high quality liquid assets to help the bank survive a 30-day stress scenario. The NCR encourages banks to reduce duration mismatch on the balance sheet.
The broad implications are that banks will need to carry more liquidity in future and less reliance on wholesale funding (impact on banks with high loan/deposit ratios).
“We find that liquidity appears to be high across the region. The range for our liquid assets ratio is Hongkong and China at the high-end (51 to 56 percent), and Korea and Thailand at the low end (negative 30 percent),” the report added.
Loan/deposit ratios are generally below 100 percent, with the exception of Korea. Even in Korea, the regulator has recently demanded that the banks reduce their loan/deposit ratios to below 100 percent by 2013.
“Qualitatively speaking, if the new Basel 3 liquidity standards were to be an issue for Asia, Korea would come across as being most vulnerable, in our view,” Citi said.

Asian banks comfortable with proposed Basel III | The Philippine Star >> Business Features >> Banking
 
plus24 e tier1

Non aggiungeva niente di nuovo. Banche non emettono nuovi tier-1 nell'incertezza delle nuove regole. C'era uno di BNY che diceva che si stavano spostando dai T1 con high step up a quelli con low step up.
Prevedono riacquisti dei T1 esistenti.

dice che lo spostamento sarebbe una scommessa sul fatto che se diventassero titoli di debito x Basilea, ci sarebbe convenienza a buyback su quelli a maggiore sconto in quanto anche offrendo un prezzo piu alto del mercato ci sarebbe da parte della banca comunque un margine per fare delle plusvalenze che andrebbero a rafforzare il capitale cosa che sugli highstep risulterebbe minore
riporta anche una tabellina presa da WestLB Mellon con previsioni che per le perpetue riassumo con
sovrapesare JPMorgan HSBC Allianz Axa Ingassicurazione
sottopesare Bnp Rbs AIG Zurich SwissRE Ingbanca
come si faccia a distinguere i titoli Ing bancari da quelli assicurativi non saprei, forse mi son perso una puntata della Ing novel
 
Ciao vi posto alcune delle domande e risposte che ho fatto a Dante Alemmis via MP su alcune emissioni che lui forse conosce meglio di noi.


DanteAllemis ha scritto:
maxinblack ha scritto:
Ciao Dante.

Do You know that Mr DANTE ALEMMIS is now a valued member of our forum for the german matters?:up:

I am very glad that i "fished" you on Bondboard:D

I live in Florence the city of DANTE ALIGHIERI and if you are around let me know we should have a "bistecca alla fiorentina". and comment about the "inferno" or "paradiso" of the perpetuals.

Thank you for your kind words. I'll write if I ever get the chance to stop by. Bistecca sounds good to me!
And please, also do tell me if you ever come to Berlin. :-)

Lets go back to our perpetuals. Unfortunately the ARAG is very illiquid i will try again 3rd chance.
I did not understand why you dont suggest me to buyWESTLB GS 2019, in my opinion if you buy now you lock a rich coupon until 2019? am I missing something? unforytunately is very very illiquid and probably impossible to buy
Well the GS 2019 of WestLB is not a bad trade. I see good things to come for WestLB. But the best way to play this are the shorter durations as they have the largest YTM. The biggest reward however will be found in the hybrids.

What is the west LB 2011 you suggest? I think there are two of them, and why choose the short term? ISIN please:)
I bought both WestLB GS 2011 at 65 and slightly eased off at 85. Still good to hold these to the end with around 20% ytm.

this morning i took the DPB 2017 XS0307741917
50000 eur
Can't be bad as they will become Deutsche Bank hybrid in the future.

and XS0244204003
5000 eur
Württemb.Lebensversicherung AGFLR-Nachr.-Anl. v.06(16/26)
I dont know very well the latter but from the opinions of the germans forum is considered no bad.what you think?
I see no problems at all for all insurance hybrids. Not all that fancy but a very good and sound investment.

What do you think about this? is a sistemic dutch bank that posted a profit this year and very popular at the moment at Investire Oggi but we are just 20 "expert" members and 50000 eur minimum lot a like a second opinion:
SNS REAAL GROEP N.V. EO-FLR MED.-T. NTS 07(17/UND....
WKN:A0NZVXI
I have no better information on SNS than you...

Another one that intrigue me is :
GFW CAPITAL GMBH CAPITAL NOTES V.05(16/UNBEF.)
WKN:A0JCC9IS We made some research on the sister in $ but no consensus was found among us.
I hold this bond. Müncher Hypothekenbank held up well during this crisis and also has strong support from owners. I like the A0JCC9 better due to its higher potential up to 100 eventually...

And this also: with the strange structure of the nominal at 25%.
AAREAL BANK CAPITAL FDG TRUST EO-TRUST.PREF.SEC. 0...
WKN: 778998 ISIN: XS0138973010
Also a good Idea, even though prices have moved already quite a bit. Aareal has been profitable in the last years. Also, this bond will eventually be called because it will not count towards tier1. This bond is interesting because it does not trade with interest accrued. So it might be a good idea to buy before coupon-date.

And finally what do you think about the mistreated IKB in a speculative manner?
IKB FDG TR.II 04/UND. FLR
I have taken a look into IKB. I strongly urge you not to buy this bond. IKB is posting losses and Lone-Star has the right to absorb many years of possible profits before they will have to make payments on GS or even the two hybrids. With IKB the LT2 looks much better for the time being and the years to come. [XS0171797219]

Ciao Dante I hope that i dont bother you too much and i rob you of your time, but it seems to me that you, like the rest of us, like researching and speculating on this class of investments. and I hope to be competent enough to return the favor.

If you answer in the forum is always better but let me know by PM, they are so "crazy" that they can write 10 pages in a single day.:)
Yes, the forum is crazy. I just returned from vacation in St. Anton and can barely keep up with all of the postings. I do like the research on and the communication about the perpetuals so again: Thank you for your consideration and for your good postings in the forum.

Best from Berlin
Dante
 
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